Despite this math, in my experience, it’s still easy for scared candidates to believe that Democrats or Republicans will stay home in November unless they’re repeatedly fed what they want to hear. A call from the head of a religious group, a civil rights group, a labor group and others (often called “groups”) and fear runs through a campaign. ONE Article from the New York Times this winter about black pastors warning the Biden White House that his war policy in Gaza could jeopardize re-election is a prime example. Maybe if Mr. Biden is up against a popular moderate opponent, the concern may be legitimate. But in the fall election against Mr. Trump, this final month of the campaign will see a frantic get-out-the-vote effort, and I suspect that the Democratic base will sit idly by thinking to Trump. limo rides along Pennsylvania Avenue. The fact that swing voters in battleground states are upset about immigration, inflation, what they see as extreme climate policy and weakness on foreign affairs will likely cause Mr. Trump returns to office if they do not. blunted.
Let’s look at some Democratic voting history. Joe Biden received 81% of the vote in Michigan Democrats presidential primary election in February. He achieved roughly similar percentage points in the primaries in Colorado, Texas and Massachusetts — not too far behind other incumbent presidents with weak job ratings. Yet for months, liberal commentators and activists have pointed to the Michigan protest vote as evidence that Mr. Biden is doomed to defeat in November because of his stance with Israel. But Michigan is unlikely to repeat the 1968 New Hampshire primary that effectively ended Lyndon Johnson’s term. re-election bid – Eugene McCarthy got 42 percent and that was a really big turnout.
I believe that most of the 101,000 “uncommitted” votes that Mr. Biden lost in Michigan will eventually go home because they have nowhere else to go, and the threat that Mr. Trump poses will become clear and obvious. scarier in the next six months. But anyhow, the chances will be much greater for Mr. Biden if you look the other way. Mr. Trump lost to Nikki Haley by nearly 300,000 votes in the Republican primary election in Michigan. These people lie in the moderate center, and many of them could be persuaded to vote for Mr. Biden if he tailored his message to appeal to them. And remember to multiply by two: convincing those 300,000 Republicans to cross party lines has the same force as eliminating 600,000 Democrats. The same math applies to other battleground states, like Pennsylvania, where 158,000 people voted for Ms. Haley over Mr. Trump in the Republican primary — even though she had voted seven weeks earlier. .
Unfortunately, Mr. Biden failed to reach moderate voters with policy ideas or a strong campaign message. He has not provided clear evidence of attracting large numbers of voters in battleground states at this time. Those swing voters seek fiscal restraint without raising taxes, climate policies that still give people car and fuel choices, and immigration policies that are compassionate to those who are here but border closure. The balanced budget remains one of the strongest measures other voters want. Bill Clinton’s efforts to balance the budget sparked a revolution that led to an 8-point victory over even third-party candidates in 1996 and raised his job approval rating above 70 %. Instead of focusing on the center when addressing the 32 million people watching his State of the Union address, Mr. Biden doubled down on his basic strategy with class-warfare attacks on big and wealthy corporations, massive tax increases, student loans. gifts and further expansion of social programs despite a deficit of more than $1.1 trillion. That result quickly dissipated.
Mr. Biden’s election campaign fundamentally miscalculated about Israel. Those Haley voters are strongly conservative voters who will unabashedly support their ally Israel and who, I believe, want to see a president who can put maximum pressure on Hamas to release hostage. By pandering to voters who have no other choice, Biden is pushing Haley’s votes toward Trump and thus his first instinct on Israel is both good policy and good politics. Eighty-four percent Independents support Israel more than Hamas in the conflict, and 63% believe a ceasefire should only happen after the hostages are released. The more Biden pandered to the left by reducing support for Israel, the weaker he appeared and the more his foreign policy ratings fell. Instead of decisively withdrawing from Israel, Mr. Biden should find a plan that allows Israel to enter Rafah and has enough precautions for Rafah civilians that the US president can support it.
