To understand where we are and where we are going, it is helpful to understand the science behind Omicron and the speed at which we can expect answers.
But genetic sequencing is only the first step. As we all know well, our gene sequence is not the only thing that determines how we look and how we work. So we need to do more work to find out
answer for the really important questions about the Omicron variation. This takes time and is not easy.
The next big question we’re trying to answer is: How easily is this new variant spread, or scientifically speaking, how is it “transmissible”? Do the mutations really help it “stick” to the airways more easily, or reproduce more efficiently?
This question is important because if the virus spreads easily, more people will get sick – especially if they are unvaccinated, unexposed or have weakened immunity. (
This is what made the Delta variant so bad.)
Transmissibility in some ways seems easiest to spot: we think about
this is old school, gum epidemiology, where we contact the trace, count the people who have the disease and figure out their characteristics, and then – as we accumulate cases – start approximating the reproduction number. But
best estimate based on other things (like social density), as well as our behavior (like wearing a mask).
Scientists are working hard to get this information, but precise data takes time and we should expect that our estimates will continue to change. Currently, we are monitoring the rate of spread in South Africa and elsewhere to work out an overall estimate. It doesn’t look pretty. One
preliminary model suggests that Omicron
spreads twice as easily as Delta variant. This is why many of us scientists are warning people to wear masks in public and get booster shots. We want to prevent disparities if the real numbers are close to what
proposed initial calculation.
We also wanted to find out if Omicron made people sicker than previous variants. This question may go unanswered for months, as the severity of the illness is
affected by so many things – who is infected, how overwhelmed the local hospital system is, the rate of vaccinations and previous infections, and whether people with mild symptoms are getting tested.
Six months after discovering it, we still
are debating whether the Delta variant makes people sicker. But obviously we can’t wait months to decide what to do. So we have to act “as if,” right now. This is why President Joe Biden announced
new measures on Thursday. I hope that more will come.
Which leads me to the biggest unanswered question most of us have: How well does the Covid-19 vaccine protect us from Omicrons. This answer will also change over time. Current analyzes are complicated by the fact that most people in South Africa – where community transmission has been identified –
unvaccinated, thanks for continuing
racist vaccine, describes institutionalized racism that has existed in South Africa for nearly 50 years. As a result, it becomes more difficult to categorize the effectiveness of vaccines. Unfortunately, this setting – where many people have been infected with other variants – also allows us to check if a previous infection protects against the Omicron variant. Hitherto,
signal is it possible not. In other words, get your first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine if you haven’t already. And then get your booster, if you can.
So where does that put us all – myself included – as we get ready for the holidays?
While we wait for the data, basic protections remain your best bet. All indications are that the same old strategies (masks in indoor public places, rapid testing, ventilation and of course vaccines) are still the most important in stopping the spread of the virus. spread of this airborne virus. Plus, the Delta variant is still among us, representing 99.9% of daily cases in the US, and these safety measures work to protect us from Delta.
Also, if you live in an area of the world where vaccines are easily available, now is the time to
get a booster – any booster – to increase your chances of fighting with the new Omicron variant.
If you’re fully vaccinated and planning vacations, it’s too early to give definitive advice. I recommend everyone consider their options for cancellation, but don’t include kibosh in that family gathering yet – assuming everyone has received at least their first series of vaccines.
This is my final piece of advice. None of us are predicting the return of 2020 style lock. We have much more to prevent and
behave virus now. But bear with me – and with other scientists, doctors and public health professionals – as we do our best to push the line between expecting the worst and hoping for the best. . Advice is subject to change, but we’re trying to do the best we can, as quickly as we can.
After all, we are all looking forward to a more casual holiday.
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