NFL picks, predictions against the Week 11 spread: Chiefs Cowboys clip; Buccaneers, Browns roll; Raiders fall again
Weeks 9 and 10 are a bit of a challenge for our NFL game picks and predictions compared to spreads, as the lines get tighter and smarter to play “cooler” for a Hot streak at the beginning of the season. It just means we need to be more responsive to the new challenges of Week 11.
The list of competitions has up to 15 games with just two teams, the Broncos and Rams, bye. As usual, jumping early in the week is advantageous for some games before more information becomes available.
Let’s dive into another loaded schedule with our latest fearless football forecast for pig skin prognosis:
(Allowed game odds of FanDuel)
NFL POWER RANKINGS:
Titans take over; Cowboys, Patriots shot up; Buccaneers, Raven drops in Week 11
NFL picks against disparity for Week 11
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cowboys and Chiefs saw their offense explode to expectations in Week 10, with Dallas enjoying the ride of Atlanta and Kansas City going through and out of Las Vegas. With Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes returning to their elite status after brief hiccups, expect this game to continue to enjoy its highs and lows. Both QBs love to throw on the pitch for big games, but they’ve also proven abrasive with long shots that lean a bit more on the run. Kansas City’s defense was upgraded by home to play a couple of times more than Dallas, while Mahomes’ primary weapon fights were slightly better for Prescott.
Pick: The captain won with a score of 34-31 and covered the difference.
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video
The Patriots return to take care of the business with Bill Belichick. When they play defensively and run the ball like that, it makes the job of rookie defender Mac Jones a lot easier. Nothing needs to be given here. They won’t hesitate to stick to their strengths, because they also match the Falcons’ weaknesses. Matt Ryan’s roller coaster pass takes another leap while Jones has a wider variety of weapons and depth to easily overtake him.
Pick: The Patriots won with a score of 27-20 and coverage.
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Buccaneers turn to the right of the ship after two consecutive losses on the difficult road as a goodbye. Tom Brady rarely has two bad games in a row and he certainly doesn’t have three when his team needs him most with more defensive injuries and a consistently stumbling attack. The Giants shocked the Saints and the Raid, but those games are at home. Bucs has been perfect in Tampa since Super Bowl 55 and even though New York’s D has its moment, except Big Blue sings sad songs after goodbye. Coach Bruce Arians will challenge his team all week and will play against Joe Judge’s club.
Pick: The Buccaneers won 38-17 and took the difference.
- Performance of the week: Jets (+3, 45.5 o/u) on Dolphins
Sunday 1pm ET, CBS
Jets have wins against Titans and Bengals at home. This is another chance for Robert Saleh’s team to add another confidence-building game in a pure rebuilding season. New York may have a healthy Zach Wilson. Miami can feel content when Tua Tagovailoa starts up again. But the Jets had a better dash attack towards the end while the Dolphins couldn’t exploit the Jets in the same way. Overall, the Jets also suddenly have more reliable weapons than the Dolphins.
Pick: The Jets won with a score of 23-20.
Sunday 1pm ET, Fox
The Browns are also regularly burned late, losing four of their past six games. They are running out of time to focus on a race to host their second consecutive AFC play-off. Baker Mayfield needs to play better than Myles Garrett, a talented defense needs better adjustment. The Lions are a welcome break, walking the Great Lakes 170 miles southeast to Dawg Pound. The Lions’ one-sided offense will not recur on the road in AFC North. Cleveland will do its best with a rested Nick Chubb to help ease the pressure against Mayfield.
Pick: The Browns won 27-14 and that includes the spread.
Sunday 1pm ET, Fox
The 49ers have been shaky at home this season but are down 3-1 under the lead of Kyle Shanahan. They tend to travel well to the East Coast with calculated preparation, and that won’t change in a short week. Shanahan may have been too creative and too cute to lead his team, but either way, San Francisco’s plan is much better than what Jacksonville had with the Urban Meyer staff.
Pick: The 49ers win 30-20 and take the difference.
Sunday 1pm ET, CBS
The Colts need to run well with Jonathan Taylor from rope to rope to get the rest of their attack. The Bills’ defense can at least stop him early and put Carson Wentz in more uncomfortable situations in the elements of the road in November. Josh Allen will find more to exploit than defense. Colts’ pass and his new-found patience will be an asset here. Bills was faced with the Colts’ limited weaponry while the Colts couldn’t explain all the skills surrounding Allen.
Pick: The draft wins 27-17 and includes the spread.
- Washington football team at the Panthers (-2.5, 43 o/u)
Sunday 1pm ET, Fox
Washington will backup Chase Young and Montez Sweat with injuries. But overall, the team played the kind of crowded defense that Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio expected with better planning after the split with Brad. They also brought their running game closer to the ideal state with Antonio Gibson. Gibson vs. Christian McCaffrey will be the real duel in his revenge game with Taylor Heinicke likely going up against former QB teammate Cam Newton. Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner know the Panthers well and will plan to improve Matt Rhule and his staff in a messy game.
Pick: Washington won 23-20.
- Raven (-6.5, 45 o/u) at Bears
Sunday 1pm ET, CBS
The Ravens have been a much better home team this season, even as they suffered a woeful loss to the Bengals in Baltimore. The road was tough, losing in both Las Vegas and Miami but getting out of Detroit and dominating Denver. The Bears will deploy an improved all-round rookie QB in Justin Fields against a vulnerable defense at home with some of their key ingredients to stave off a Lamar Jackson comeback. Chicago had enough holes to be exploited on both sides, while Jackson saved the day in the fourth round, with plenty of his arms and some legs.
Pick: Raven won 24-20 but couldn’t overcome the spread.
- Saints at Eagles (-1.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 1pm ET, Fox
The Eagles took down the Saints 24-21 in the first game of Jalen Hurts’ career on December 13 of last year. They will be hoping for a similar result here as the home team’s favorites are pleasantly surprised. The Eagles gathered later with Hurts and their committee in favor and it worked to address Hurts and make the game go by more efficiently. But the Saints halted the run well and were given a break with rookie DeVonta Smith leading the Eagles’ limited receiving corps, and tight finish Dallas Goedert could also miss the game with a concussion. The Saints played sharp short to medium attack with Trevor Siemian and could still control the ball whether it was Alvin Kamara or Mark Ingram.
Pick: Saints won 20-17.
Sunday 1pm ET, CBS
The Texans should fight harder after their goodbyes in search of a second victory, just as the Lions did on their way to cracking a goose egg. Tyrod Taylor is better off leading the attack as the Titans’ secondary holes haven’t disappeared yet. Ryan Tannehill has done just enough with AJ Brown and wouldn’t have helped much without Derrick Henry. It happened again here as Mike Vrabel made sure his team didn’t get caught heading into New England in Week 12.
Pick: The Titans won with a score of 30-20 but failed to cover.
Sunday 1pm ET, Fox
This is a tough division game for the Packers as they try to keep their No. 1 seed in NFC. But they’re fine without Aaron Jones as they have AJ Dillon supporting Aaron Rodgers a lot. Minnesota’s Monday was a mess and the passing pace wasn’t much and it was outnumbered last week against the Chargers. The Packers’ defense is playing with more confidence and will stop Kirk Cousins when it is deemed to be the best in the second half.
Pick: The packer wins 27-24 and covers the spread.
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bengals will look great bye bye Joe Burrow picking out a reeling defense that can’t cover his talented wide receiver or slow Joe Mixon’s run. Cincinnati will also continue to tackle some defensive issues while Las Vegas will continue to spawn at every level. The teams have similar resumes, but their situations are different here with one still feeling good about their AFC playoff chances going into Week 12.
Pick: The Bengals won with a score of 31-24 and made up the difference.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cardinals could choose to give Kyler Murray an extra week of rest after saying goodbye to Week 12, although Colt McCoy may not be able to replace him. The Seahawks are bound to get a more casual Russell Wilson at home after he shed the rust from a finger injury in Green Bay. He will also receive a running game boost from Chris Carson. Seattle is running out of time to maintain a winning season streak with Wilson and will be desperate to maneuver a divisional foe. Injuries have forced the Cardinals to retreat to a more logical place in the NFC playoff picture.
Pick: The Seahawks won with a score of 24-21.
- Steelers at Chargers (-4.47 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Steelers suffered two key defensive injuries in Week 10 against the Lions – widening attacker TJ Watt, full-back Joe Haden – which greatly helped Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ passing game, who will find how to build on what Fields did against that defense in Week 9. Ben Roethlisberger will be back to face a tough pass defense capable of down wide receiver Chase Claypool again and last week did proves that just running Najee Harris usually can’t commit a Pittsburgh offense. Between Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Steelers had tough matches across the board.
Pick: Charge win 27-20 and cover.
Vinnie Iyer’s 2021 picks:
- Week 10 record versus spread: 6-8
- Record week 10 straight up: 7-6
- ATS season: 81-67
- Straight up season: 97-52
