By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The new pause has been extended by two more months to 8 years and 11 months. Least squares linear regression trend on UAH satellite monthly global temperature data set for lower troposphere showing no global warming from June 2014 to April 2023 .
As usual, the start and end dates of the new Pause are not carefully selected. The end date is the most recent month for which data is available; the start date is the furthest one can reach and still find zero trend. That’s what it is.
For comparison, here’s the entire data set for 44 years and 5 months from December 1978. It shows a long-term warming rate equivalent to 1.3 K/century, where 0.3 K has happened since January 2021, leaving only 1 K left (on current trends) until 2100, when coal, oil and gas reserves will be nearly exhausted.
We are no longer in the state of la Niña. They end in March 2023, when the temperature of the Niño-3.4 zone in the eastern equatorial Pacific rises above –0.5 K:
One reason why el Niño followers predict that a new el Niño is on its way is due to the gradual westward expansion of warm waters at the top 300 m of the tropics. The Pacific Ocean, the signature sign of el Niño, as the NOAA image shows –
NOAA considers that there is a 62% chance of an el Nino event. If it grows, it will probably end the latest Pause. However, these Long Pauses are a visual demonstration of the now undeniable fact that the rate of global warming predicted by the IPCC in 1990 has been shown to far exceed the subsequent results. according to.
Note first that the 400-month 0.136K/decade trend (one third of a century to be exact) since 1990 is only slightly above the 0.133K/decade trend since 1978. Despite the business-as-usual increase in emissions, the slight increase in the rate of global warming is evident.
In fact, the IPCC’s 1990 mid-range prediction of normal warming of 0.3 K/decade since that year exceeds the observed real-world global warming rate of 0.136 K/decade. since then by an astounding 120%. Indeed, even the lower limit of 0.2 K/decade of the IPCC 1990 prediction exceeds the observed reality by almost half. However, policy is being implemented by scientifically illiterate governments on the basis of predictions of an upper limit of 0.5 K/decade, exceeding the observed reality by 268%.
Actual annual emissions are tracking Scenario A in business as usual in IPCC (1990). The growth is almost twice as much as predicted in Scenario B. It is now clear that the IPCC’s forced emissions conversion, and thus, the agency’s projections of global warming This situation, has been overwhelmed and thus the threatened “climate emergency” is no more.
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