The biggest concern for those fighting for a playoff spot in the NASCAR Cup Series is that a driver not in the playoff mix could pull off a surprise win in the playoffs.
Hello, Austin Dillon
Dillon, who was 32nd in the standings entering Richmond, put himself in the playoffs with a win — although it is a controversial thing — on Sunday, the 23rd race of the 26-race regular season.
After Richmond, there are three more races to determine the playoffs: Michigan, Daytona and Darlington.
The NASCAR playoffs consist of 16 drivers—the regular season champion and the next 15 ranked by wins and points for those in the same position.
With the top seven drivers in the standings all having at least one win, the regular season champion is a strong contender for the title. Thirteen drivers have won this year, meaning there could be as many as three points spots available.
So who is in the game, who is at a disadvantage, and who will win at all costs?
The 13 winning riders include: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric And Austin Dillon.
The bubble has changed significantly with Dillon’s win, as there are now only three spots at most — not four as before the Richmond race — available to drivers who have never won. Both Chris Buescher And Ross Chastain has fallen below the cut line while Bubba Wallace moved into a good position as one of three drivers without a win with the most points.
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So let’s get to the point:
There are five drivers without a win who will compete for the three current positions based on points alone.
Martin Truex Jr. has 78 edge points on the cut (currently Buescher and Chastain), with 60 points on Ty Gibbs15 points higher than Wallace.
Buescher and Chastain, tied on points in the standings, trail Wallace by three points.
In other words, this will be a fight to the end.
Buescher won at Michigan and Daytona last year, but those are also places where Wallace has typically run well. Gibbs is still looking for his first career Cup win. Chastain is the driver with the most recent experience in pressure playoff situations, where he has proven he can make things happen.
There are 16 other drivers who qualify for the playoffs facing must-win situations: Chasing Briscoe, Kyle Busch, Todd Gilliland, Josh Berry, Michael McDowell, Carson Hocevar, Noah Graham, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, Corey LaJoieJohn Hunter Nemechek, Harrison Burton And Zane Smith.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motor sports, including more than 30 Daytona 500 races, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @baboon.
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