They are studying his interviews, preparing for mass deportations and preparing policy proposals to bring to the negotiating table.
As Mexico heads toward next month’s presidential election, government officials and campaign aides are also preparing for another vote: one in the United States that could return Donald Trump to the presidency. system.
The last time Mr. Trump took office, his victory surprised many of America’s allies, and his menacing foreign policy forced them to adapt on the go. Now, they have time to predict how Mr. Trump’s victory will change the relationship that President Biden has tried to normalize — and they are frantically preparing for an upheaval.
For some, the memory of negotiating with Mr. Trump the last time he was in office, when he made extreme threats against Mexico, remains fresh in the memory.
What did it take back then to reach a deal with Mr. Trump’s team? “Time, patience, cold blood,” former Mexican foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard said in an interview. “You can win if you understand this. It’s not easy.”
In Mexico, officials say working with Mr. Trump could be even more difficult this time. The former president promised “the largest deportation campaign in American history,” floating the idea of Imposing 100% tax on Chinese cars produced in Mexico And committed to deploying US special forcesas he put it, “waging war on corporations.”
According to a senior official, the Mexican government is talking to people close to Trump’s campaign about proposals like the former president’s threat of “universal tariffs” on all goods. imports and efforts to resolve trade disagreements before the US election. Mexican officials are not authorized to speak publicly.
The official said the goal is for the future Mexican government to be as fully equipped as possible to dialogue with Mr. Trump.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico forged a close working relationship with Mr. Trump during his first years in office, despite Mr. Trump’s constant threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and force the country to pay for construction. border wall.
But Mr. López Obrador will step down after his term ends following a presidential election in June, in which polls gave a significant advantage to his protégé, Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor. Mexico City.
The unwritten rule in Mr. López Obrador’s relationship with Mr. Trump was that Mexico did all it could on migration and the White House let him pursue his domestic priorities without interference. That seemed to work for both men.
The Mexican leader was praising Mr. Trump for respecting Mexican sovereignty. In contrast, Mr. Trump called the Mexican leader “a friend” and “a great president.”
But it’s unclear how Mr. Trump will communicate with either of the two leading presidential candidates.
“With President Trump or President Biden, we would have good relations,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in an interview. “We will always protect Mexico and Mexicans in America — and we want an equitable relationship.”
Xóchitl Gálvez, the leading opposition candidate, said she could also work with either man as president.
“Obviously, I enjoy working with a gentleman as polite and respectful as Joe Biden,” Ms. Gálvez told The New York Times. “But in my professional and political life, I have had to deal with all kinds of masculinity,” she said. “This is not the first time I have faced a character with complicated masculinity, so I can cooperate perfectly with Trump.”
Campaign aides are planning for one of two outcomes.
“I’m not worried, but we will be prepared,” said Juan Ramón de la Fuente, a member of Ms. Sheinbaum’s team. “We are preparing for both scenarios.”
Mr. de la Fuente, who recently served as Mexico’s ambassador to the United Nations and is considered a potential choice for secretary of state in the Sheinbaum administration, said about the migration issue.
But he also pointed out that US law acts as an “unhealthy force” that helps promote migration, “because the moment you set foot on land, you are a candidate for asylum.”
Some officials in Mexico see the country as having more leverage in its dealings with the United States than before. The White House has relied heavily Mr. López Obrador slowed down migration at the US southern borderand that cooperation has given Mexico significant influence over one of the most important issues in American politics.
“Structurally, Mexico is gaining more power vis-à-vis the United States,” Mr. Ebrard said. Mexico’s economy has performed relatively well in recent years and factories have become an attractive alternative to China for the United States.
As Mexico, “any administration in the United States needs you for their migration policy,” he said. “Geopolitical tensions are working in certain ways towards a stronger Mexico.”
Mr. Ebrard, who joined Ms. Sheinbaum’s campaign and was considered a possible cabinet member if she won, led negotiations with Mr. Trump’s advisers while he was in office.
On trade, Mr. Ebrard said, “their priority is labor reform, increasing wages in Mexico.” That’s acceptable for Mexico, since the López Obrador administration campaigned on a left-wing platform and pledged to raise wages for Mexicans.
When migrating, the actual requirement is much more difficult to meet. Mr. Ebrard said Mr. Trump wants to “dramatically reduce” the number of people crossing the border, but does not agree with Mexico on investing in ways to address the causes that drive people to migrate.
However, Mexico can still push the administration to acknowledge its position, he said.
In December 2018, the Trump administration joined a Mexico-led effort and pledged billions of dollars of private and public investment to Central America – although months later the former president moved to cut off all aid to the region in response to the migrant caravans.
The Mexican government has been criticized for receiving too little benefit for agreeing to accept tens of thousands of asylum seekers returned under the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy. But the administration has also had clear wins, including renegotiating free trade agreements with the United States and Canada.
Ms. Gálvez argued that the government missed an opportunity to guarantee more rights for undocumented Mexicans in the United States and protect migrants stranded in Mexico, but she also praised the trade deal.
“In that sense, Mexico won, won by a lot with Trump,” Ms. Gálvez said, adding that Mr. Trump never actually imposed the tariffs he threatened. “It wasn’t that bad.”
