A champion, and probably champions, will certainly be decided on Saturday at Del Mar when 11 proficient fillies and mares face off within the $2 million Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
The 1 1/8-mile race dates again to 1984 and has lengthy performed a pivotal position in figuring out which fillies and mares earn Eclipse Awards for champion older grime feminine and champion 3-year-old filly. Actually, the 2021 Distaff is stacked with the important thing contenders for each titles, stamping the race as a very championship-defining occasion.
The favourite to earn champion older grime feminine honors is #6 Letruska, who enters the Distaff as a division standout. The daughter of Tremendous Saver is a head away from being undefeated in seven begins this season, together with consecutive victories within the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap, Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes, Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes, Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes Presented by Lia Infiniti, and Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes.
Letruska’s key weapon is her front-running velocity — all six of her wins this season have been achieved in gate-to-wire vogue. She’s defeated virtually each different high feminine in her division, together with 4 of her Distaff rivals. Absolutely, she’ll put up one other pacesetting victory within the Distaff?
Nicely … not essentially. Letruska has been sensational this 12 months, however the Distaff looms as her hardest take a look at date up to now. For starters, she’s going through a number of speedy rivals, together with Grade 2 Zenyatta Stakes winner #1 Private Mission, 2020 Grade 2 Beldame Stakes winner #7 Horologist, and 2020 Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks winner #8 Shedaresthedevil. The latter filly is the one one to defeat Letruska this 12 months, main all the best way to win the Grade 2 Azeri Stakes by a head on Mar. 13.
Since Letruska seems to be a need-the-lead sort, the presence of three quick opponents is a priority. Letruska could must run quicker than normal to safe the early lead, which might trigger her to weaken within the stretch drive.
There are two different regarding elements as effectively. By way of Beyer and Brisnet velocity figures, Letruska doesn’t maintain a lot of an edge over her Distaff rivals — a number of of Letruska’s challengers have run virtually as quick or equally quick on their finest days. Letruska’s kind strains additionally trace she could have peaked throughout the spring and summer time, along with her most up-to-date victories within the Private Ensign and Spinster being a bit much less flashy and decisive.
Letruska is certainly able to successful the Distaff, however as an 8-5 favourite on the morning line, she could be value opposing for betting functions. The query is, which of Letruska’s 10 challengers is more than likely to spring a shock?
Assuming the early tempo is quick sufficient to compromise Letruska and the opposite tempo gamers, #3 Malathaat is an apparent option to steal high honors. The daughter of Curlin is a head away from being undefeated in seven begins, together with stretch-running victories within the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes, Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks, and Grade 1 Alabama Stakes this season. Malathaat is trying to wrap up champion 3-year-old filly honors and is simply as quick as Letruska on the Brisnet velocity score scale, so she can be a major beneficiary if a damaging tempo unfolds.
However whereas Malathaat’s credentials are strong, we’re going to suppose outdoors the field with an excellent larger longshot: #11 Dunbar Road. Some could be hesitant to guess a 5-year-old mare who hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since July 2020, however Dunbar Highway has lengthy been able to competing at this degree — she completed third within the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Distaff — and arrives at Del Mar in deceptively robust kind.
Working example? Simply take a look at Dunbar Highway’s final two races. Within the Private Ensign, she launched a robust rally from the again of the pack to complete fourth, overwhelmed lower than one size by Letruska. Then within the Spinster, Dunbar Highway rallied from behind gradual fractions to complete second behind Letruska, overwhelmed only one 3/4 lengths whereas gaining floor steadily by way of the ultimate eighth of a mile.
Dunbar Highway has been steadily bettering this season and doesn’t want a giant step ahead to problem Letruska for supremacy. If she will get a quick tempo to work with on Saturday, Dunbar Highway could also be able to turning the tables and springing a 15-1 shock.
We’ll play the Distaff accordingly and boldly guess Dunbar Highway on high of all our tickets. If you happen to’re wagering on a small finances, a win guess on Dunbar Highway is the best way to go, with a small exacta play thrown in for good measure. However if in case you have extra capital to spend (and if you wish to search a giant payday), the trifecta is effectively value pursuing.
Wagering Technique on a $10 Price range
$7 to win on #11 Dunbar Highway
What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, tenth race, $7 to win on 11
$1 exacta: 11 with 3,6,8 ($3)
What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, tenth race, $1 exacta 11 with 3,6,8
Wagering Technique on a $30 Price range
$12 to win on #11 Dunbar Highway
What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, tenth race, $12 to win on 11
$2 exacta: 11 with 3,6,8 ($6)
What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, tenth race, $2 exacta 11 with 3,6,8
$1 trifecta: 11 with 3,6,8 with 2,3,5,6,8 ($12)
What to say on the betting window: Del Mar, tenth race, $1 trifecta 11 with 3,6,8 with 2,3,5,6,8
Good luck, and benefit from the race!
