Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has stayed out of his NATO allies, keeping friendly relations with President Vladimir V. Putin, making demands on Western allies and using wartime diplomacy to raise his profile.
Now, the Kremlin has deposed him, pulling out of a grain deal that Erdogan helped broker, an agreement that has elevated the Turkish president’s international standing and helped stabilize global food prices. The Russian withdrawal comes just days after the Turkish leader Intimate meeting with President Biden And say Ukraine deserves “without a doubt a NATO member,” a view that crosses Putin’s reddest line.
Russian officials have asserted that the decision to withdraw from the grain deal, which allows exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea, was due to the failure to maintain the aspect of the agreement in Russia’s favor – the easing of sanctions on its own agricultural exports. They also warned that the Russian military would treat any ship arriving in Ukraine as a potential military cargo ship.
But another consequence of this decision is to create another twist in the complicated relationship between Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Putin. Analysts say the two relied on each other throughout the war.
They’ve been there for a long time close relationseven though conflict in syria, Libya and elsewhere. After the invasion of Ukraine, Turkey maintained economic and diplomatic ties with Russia, positioning itself as the main negotiator between Moscow, Kiev and the West.
The Turkish president often describes Putin as “my friend” and insists that he can still conduct foreign policy with Russia. On Friday, Mr. Erdogan told reporters that Russia wanted to maintain the grain corridor, “but there are some expectations from Western countries and they need to act.” And he said he would discuss the matter with Putin by phone and when they meet next month.
How has Erdogan let Russia down?
After months of standing still and making demands from allies, Mr. Erdogan this month agree to the Swedish bid joined NATO, and in March he dropped his opposition to Finland’s entry into the alliance. Mr. Putin vehemently opposes any NATO expansion, especially too close to Russian soil.
“Those things have eroded Erdogan’s qualities as an honest, trustworthy broker,” said Ilhan Uzgel, a Turkish foreign policy analyst. “Putin now sees the grain deal as a bargaining chip with the West that has nothing to do with Erdogan.”
Analysts say Mr. Erdogan’s recent gestures to re-establish relations with the West may have angered Mr. Putin. This month, Türkiye hosted President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and return of five Ukrainian commanders of the Azov . Regiment to Ukraine, prompting Russia to accuse Türkiye of violating an agreement to keep the men there until the war ended.
Russia has been bombing Ukraine’s port cities for three days this week, specifically targeting grain shipping facilities and warning that efforts to bypass Russia’s naval blockade in the Black Sea could be seen as an act of war.
According to Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University, the Russian attacks could signal that the Kremlin does not want the grain deal restored or used as a basis for peace talks or a ceasefire. He said the violence could also signal that Mr. Erdogan has lost some of his diplomatic footprint.
“But this does not mean that Erdogan has become diplomatically irrelevant,” Guvenc added.
Erdogan has acted as a conduit between Putin and leaders in Europe and the United States, and Turkey and Russia have benefited from each other economically during the past 17 months of war.
Mr. Guvenc said Türkiye has refused to impose sanctions on Russia as the United States and the European Union have done. Faced with its own economic problems, Turkey has expanded its trade ties with Russia since the war began, boosting Turkish exports and buying cheap Russian natural gas. Analysts say that keeping good relations with Moscow will help Erdogan maintain the balance of power in the Black Sea.
Can Türkiye regain influence?
If he wants to act as a mediator for peace talks or a ceasefire — or simply to regain some leverage, then Erdogan just needs to find another opportunity, Guvenc said.
And Turkey remains important to NATO allies and other Western institutions because of Erdogan’s continued relationship with Putin, said Evren Balta, a professor of international relations at Ozyegin University in Istanbul.
The grain deal could be revived, she said, and Erdogan could soon find new negotiating opportunities.
Ms. Balta added that Russia and Turkey have some fundamental similarities in the way their governments operate, including making decisions based on the needs of the moment.
She said that if Putin needed to talk to Erdogan, he would do it. If it is necessary to condemn him, he will do it too. And both sides understand the dual nature of that relationship, she added, meaning “Putin and Erdogan will continue to talk.”
