JERUSALEM – President Biden will travel to Israel on Wednesday for a four-day tour of the Middle East to try to slow Iran’s nuclear program, speed up the flow of oil to American pumps and reshape the relationship. relations with Saudi Arabia that do not appear to be embracing. a crown prince accused of a clear human rights violation.
All three attempts are fraught with political perils for a president who knows the region well, but for the first time in six years returns with far less leverage than he wants to shape events.
His 18-month talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have shown signs of stalling, hampering diplomatic efforts to force Tehran to ship out of the country most of the nuclear fuel it uses. now getting rich to the point of being almost bomb.
And while no clear agreement is expected to be announced on increasing Saudi Arabia’s oil production – over fears it could happen invisibly, a bonus to the reduction reduce the prince’s diplomatic return – that will probably come in a month or two. , the officials said.
Administration officials knew they would receive harsh criticism from within their own party as inevitable photos emerged of the president’s meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, less than two years old. year after Mr. Biden promised to turning Saudi Arabia into a “pariah” international arena. That promise was fueled by the 2018 murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist, in an elaborate plot that the CIA said was directly approved by Crown Prince Mohammed. .
Mr. Biden often sees this era in history as a contest between democracy and autocracy, and bans Cuba and Venezuela from participating. the top of the Americas in Los Angeles for their repressive activities. But he justified his visit to Saudi Arabia as an exercise in realism.
“My intent is to reorient – but not disrupt – the relationship,” Biden wrote in the letter an idea in the Washington Post last weekend. “Energy sources are crucial to minimizing the impact on global supplies for Russia’s war in Ukraine,” he said, in the only acknowledgment of the fact that Crown Prince Mohammed’s strategy – waited until the US needed Saudi Arabia again – succeeded.
There’s also a superpower maneuvering element to the ride.
When he took office, Mr. Biden made it clear that he wanted to emphasize America’s focus on the Middle East and focus on China – reflecting his belief that Washington wasted 20 years when it should have focused on a peer competitor.
But the trip is also partly aimed at preventing Chinese incursions into the region. Last week, Riyadh and Washington quietly signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate in building the next-generation 5G mobile network in Saudi Arabia. It is designed to beat Huawei, China’s 5G champion.
The politics of the war in Ukraine will also have a foundation.
Mr. Biden’s aides made it clear that they were upset in the spring when the Israeli government insisted on bringing largely neutral stance about the war, stressing that it was the only way for Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to keep an open mind with President Vladimir V. Putin.
On Monday, as Mr. Biden prepared to leave, his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, revealed for the first time that intelligence agencies had concluded that Iran – Israel’s main rival – was planning aid to Russia in the war with Ukraine. He said Iran is preparing to transfer to Russia hundreds of drones, or UAVs, some of which are capable of carrying out attacks.
“Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to supply Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons capable of carrying them, in an urgent time. comment Monday afternoon.
“Our information indicates that Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use these UAVs with initial training scheduled to begin in early July,” he said.
Mr. Sullivan cautioned that “it is not clear whether Iran has delivered any of these UAVs to Russia,” but said “this is just one example of how Russia is looking to countries like Iran to look for potential threats.” capabilities are also being used” in attacks against Saudi Arabia.
Mr. Sullivan’s main motive for disclosing Iran’s activity was to warn Tehran and Moscow that the United States was watching. But with Mr Biden’s visit expected to open with a demonstration of Israel’s new ability to use laser weapons against drones and missiles, it also appears to be intended to send a message. message to the Israeli government about supporting Ukraine more strongly.
It also gives Mr Biden and the caretaker prime minister who will serve as his host, Yair Lapid, a common ground of unanimity on how to confront Iran, as the backstage continues to jostle over how to handle it. An important turning point in Iran’s nuclear program.
Israel vehemently opposed the 2015 nuclear deal and the Prime Minister at the time, Benjamin Netanyahu, spoke to Parliament about the need to block it. (Many of his military and intelligence officials disagreed, and they later said they thought the deal forced Iran to ship 97 percent of its fuel stockpile out of the country, having bought it from them over the years. five).
When President Donald J. Trump withdraw from the agreement In 2018, it created a new surge in Iran’s nuclear program. It has now produced significant amounts of uranium at near-bomb purity – something it had not done before the 2015 deal – and Israel has stepped up its campaign of sabotage, blowing up Iranian facilities. In response, Iran is accelerating the development of new underground facilities.
Officially, Israel opposes extending the agreement – although it appears to be a matter of contention.
Negotiations have stalled for months, with Mr Biden rejecting a request from Iran that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps be removed from Washington’s list of terrorist organizations. Robert Malley, the American and Iranian chief negotiator, refused to meet face-to-face, tell NPR recently that “whether they care or not, they will have to decide sooner or later, because at some point the deal will be a thing of the past.”
It may have exceeded the resuscitation point.
In early spring, Mr. Malley and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said there were only weeks, maybe a month or so, to reach an agreement before Iran’s advances, and the knowledge gained when The country installs advanced centrifuges to produce high levels of uranium. volume, would render the 2015 agreement obsolete.
Now, four months later, Biden’s aides refuse to explain how they let that deadline pass – and they still insist that reinstating the deal is more valuable than giving it up.
Rafael Grossi, the world’s chief nuclear inspector, said earlier this month in Australia that he believes Iran’s program has now become so advanced that others in the region would be tempted to copy it. . Saudi Arabia has said it reserves the right to build any nuclear infrastructure Iran builds.
“We are in a situation where Iran’s neighbors can start to fear the worst and plan accordingly. “There are countries in the region today that are looking very closely at what is happening with Iran, and tensions in the region are increasing.” He added that political leaders have sometimes said that “they will actively seek nuclear weapons if Iran poses a nuclear threat.”
As for public consumption, the White House argued that Biden’s decision to visit Saudi Arabia was driven by a range of national security issues, not just oil. But in reality, oil is the most pressing cause of travel at a time when gas prices are high.
Sensitive to the prospect of sacrificing his principled stance on human rights for cheaper energy, the president has no plans to announce any oil deals during his stop in Jeddah. But the two sides understand that Saudi Arabia will ramp up production when the current quota deal expires in September, just in time for the fall midterm election campaign, according to current and previous US officials. this.
Martin Indyk, a former Middle East diplomat to Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, said that the exact amount is still uncertain, but Saudi Arabia is expected to increase production by about 750,000 bpd and the The United Arab Emirates will follow suit. adding 500,000 barrels per day, totaling 1.25 million. How much that will bring down prices at the U.S. pump is still unclear and may not be fast enough or deep enough to change the public’s mood before November.
“That would be the kind of deal that justifies the trip, but since they won’t publish it, it puts the president in a situation where he has to justify it with other terms, and so the focus on Israel. and normalization and integration of defense,” said Mr. Indyk. “The president’s defense of this is misguided. He should embrace it.”
Instead, Mr. Biden tried to explain that he did not visit Saudi Arabia much when he met with many leaders from the region in the form of the Gulf Cooperation Council, a group of six countries led by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia leads, as do the leaders of three other Arab states, Egypt, Iraq and Jordan.
But White House officials resigned because of the fact that Mr. Biden would not be able to completely avoid Crown Prince Mohammed, and would at least have that damaging photo – to Mr Biden’s detriment. For the crown prince, the painting will be invaluable as he seeks to restore his international image.
Some analysts say that alone may be enough for Saudi Arabia.
Jon B. Alterman, senior vice president, said: “I think the chances of the Saudis trying to embarrass the president on this trip are relatively low, because I think it will spoil exactly what the Saudis do. the kind of strategic thing they’re trying to do,” said Jon B. Alterman, senior vice president. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “So I think their motivation to cooperate is very high.”
