The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Mariano Grossi, left, and Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian photographed the meeting in Tehran, Tuesday. Grossi has urged greater outreach in the Islamic Republic before diplomatic talks restart over Tehran’s tattered nuclear deal with world powers.
Vahid Salemi / AP
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Vahid Salemi / AP
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Mariano Grossi, left, and Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian photographed the meeting in Tehran, Tuesday. Grossi has urged greater outreach in the Islamic Republic before diplomatic talks restart over Tehran’s tattered nuclear deal with world powers.
Vahid Salemi / AP
Negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear deal resumed Monday in Vienna. This will be the seventh round of meetings between the United States, Iran, European powers and China but the first in nearly six months.
And a lot has happened since the last round to raise the stakes on any given deal.
Summary, Agreement in 2015 granted Iran relief from economic sanctions in return for limits on its nuclear program. President Trump abandoned the deal in 2018, reimposed sanctions that the US had lifted. Iran has responded by gradually increasing the publicity of the machinery used to enrich uranium, the nuclear fuel needed for a bomb.
Iran and the US – along with other world powers involved in the deal – say they want to reinstate it. But they were stuck on who took the first steps.
As the negotiations stalled, Iran has elected a new, tough president who raised his country’s demands for any new deal. And behind the scenes, there’s a series of attacks on Iran’s nuclear program, suspected of being of Israeli origin, consists of assassination of a leading Iranian scientist A year ago. That increases the risk of conflict at the bargaining table.
Both the US and Iran are currently not complying with the agreement
The Trump administration argues that the deal offered by the Obama White House was too short – some parts of it are due to expire in 2025 – and that there should have been fundamental changes in Iran policy. When Trump reimposed sanctions, he cut off most of Iran’s oil sales. When the other partners in the deal – the European Union, China, Russia – protested, the US threatened that any company doing business with Iran would also be cut off from doing business with the US. Most of those sanctions are still in place, and the Iranians are feeling the economic pain. That’s leverage for Biden’s negotiators now.
In response to the US withdrawal, Iran methodically broke the limits of the deal – its conservative parliament even passed legislation requiring such violations. The country has since stockpiled more enriched uranium than the deal allows. And it has enriched its supply far beyond the levels specified in the agreement, which is close to the enrichment required for a weapon.
Analysts say their program has been frozen and is at least a year away from producing enough enriched uranium needed for a bomb. Now, experts say it can one more month if Iran wants to do it. (But building an actual bomb, testing it, and putting it on a rocket could take a year or two.) They can be miss important information.
To get back to the deal, the US will need to get rid of the complex web of sanctions. Iran would have to reopen to inspectors, dismantle equipment and transport uranium, or reduce its enrichment level. Either way, Iran has learned a lot more about how to build a nuclear weapon in the process.
Iran has a new leadership that seems more difficult to negotiate
Amid anger over the country’s poor economy and frustration over the deal’s collapse, Iranians elected President Ibrahim Raisi in June. He’s a tougher man than his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, who agreed to the deal in 2015. Raisi seems determined to show he can get a better deal for his people. .
The man who was tipped to lead the Iran talks recently said these talks shouldn’t even be called “nuclear talks”. He declared them on the sanctions. “We don’t have nuclear talks,” said Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani state media, “because the nuclear issue was completely agreed in 2015.”
Essentially, Iranian officials say that since it was the US who broke the deal first, the US must take the first steps to make the deal work again by lifting all sanctions. punish. And, ignited by Trump’s withdrawal, they said they wanted to be assured that the deal would remain in effect even after the next US presidential election – a promise perhaps unfulfilled. in the US system.
The Biden administration wants a deal, but won’t wait much longer
American officials see the new situation on the other side and say it is up to Iran to demonstrate that they are interested in a deal. Speaking to NPR last week, US negotiator Robert Malley has softened expectations. “If [Iran is] Malley said. do.”
He urged Iran to at least meet face-to-face with the US, but the country refused. He and European leaders have called on Iran to stop violating the terms of the deal. Malley told NPR that if Iran doesn’t come back to the deal, the US will need “other efforts, diplomatically and otherwise, to try to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions.” He said Iran’s nuclear advances could soon make it too late for a deal. “We don’t have much time left before concluding that Iran has chosen a different path,” he said.
At times, the US has also floated the idea of adding new conditions to the deal – including possibly extending the term of the deal or trying to put limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program. Iran said it was those who did not start.
Supporters of a deal say it would limit Iran’s nuclear bombings. Opponents say they will let Iran slide missiles and fighters
Proponents of rejoining the deal say it prevents Iran from getting close to building a bomb. Even Trump Defense Minister says Iran has complied return when the agreement goes into effect. Supporters of the deal say other issues with Iran – such as support for militants, human rights abuses, threats against Israel and Saudi Arabia – could be managed separately and more easily if The country does not pose a nuclear threat.
Opponents of the deal say the Iranian regime is shaken and traumatized by the sanctions. They argue that Iran will make more concessions to escape sanctions or possibly even eventually be brought down. Sanctions would give the Iranian government access to huge oil revenues that it could use to destabilize the Mideast. Some Israeli officials argue that sabotage or even military strikes should be used to stop Iran’s nuclear program from progressing.
But that is seen as a risky approach that could lead to war. The Biden administration is looking to remove Iran from the list of countries that are likely to become the world’s hot spots. And Iran wants to start doing business with the world. That could be enough to bring both countries to a new deal, whether it’s a return to the old agreement or a half-step towards de-escalating tensions. The latter could mean a partial deal – lifting some US sanctions in exchange for Iran easing some of the steps it took.
