Iranian voters expressed frustration with Iran’s ruling system in the country’s presidential election on Friday, turning out in record low numbers to send the two main candidates into a second round.
The second round of voting on July 5 will offer voters a final choice between a reformist former health minister, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, and a radical former nuclear negotiator. conservative, Saeed Jalili, both failed to win more than 50 percent of the votes needed to win the presidential election. That postponed for another week the question of who will steer Iran through challenges that include a weak economy, a gulf between the rulers and the ruled and a war. nearby constantly threatens to pull Iran deeper in.
But despite belonging to different camps, neither man is expected to bring major change to Iran, as they must rule with the final approval of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Here are the most notable takeaways from Friday’s election.
The Iranians continue to reject this system.
According to government figures, only 40% of eligible Iranians voted on Friday, a historically low turnout for an Iranian presidential race — even lower than the 41% reported for this year’s Iranian parliamentary elections.
Although elections in Iran once drew enthusiastic crowds, more and more people have stayed home in recent years as a form of protest against the ruling regime, which they blame for destroying the economy, stifling social and political freedoms and isolating Iran from the world.
In the 2013 presidential election, a large number of urban, middle-class Iranians desiring prosperity and a more open society placed their faith in the reformist candidate, Hassan Rouhani . They hope he will ease social and political restrictions and reach a deal to lift Western sanctions in exchange for curbs on their country’s nuclear activities.
Mr. Rouhani made that deal only for President Donald J. Trump to unilaterally withdraw from the deal and reimpose sanctions in 2018, hitting Iran’s economy — which analysts say also suffered. Benefiting from the mismanagement and corruption of Iran’s leaders – fell into recession again.
And the social freedoms that Iranians had built up under Mr. Rouhani’s presidency as enforcers looked the other way — including a looser dress code that allowed more Iranian women to wear their mandatory headscarves down to their shoulders — evaporated after Mr. Trump’s election in 2021. Mr. Rouhani’s successor, Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner, died in a helicopter crash last month.
Seeing that voting for reformers could not guarantee lasting change, Iranians turned their backs on the polls and against the system. Their anger reached a new peak in 2022, when months of nationwide anti-government protests Eruptions after a young woman, Mahsa Aminidied after being arrested by police. With enforcement of modesty laws increasing under Mr. Raisi, she was detained for wearing her headscarf improperly.
What could happen in this election cycle?
Voters remain skeptical that any candidate can bring about real change, even one who has been openly critical of the government like reformist candidate Dr. Pezeshkian. So, despite the disillusionment of many voters with the current conservative-dominated government, it is far from certain that they will turn out to support Dr. Pezeshkian in the runoff election.
One reason Dr. Pezeshkian made it to the ballot, despite being the only reformer in a crowded field, is that the other two major candidates are hardliners who have split the conservative vote. Mr. Jalili, the more ideologically rigid of the two, is not guaranteed to win over his former conservative opponent, as early polls showed many of them were not interested in supporting Mr. Jalili.
That could change, however, after that opponent, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, asked his followers to vote for Mr Jalili to ensure a conservative victory.
Overall, the powerful ruling elite, led by Mr. Khamenei, seems to want Mr. Jalili to win. Mr. Khamenei has a close personal relationship with Mr. Jalili and shares his tough views, and he recently indirectly criticized Dr. Pezeshkian for being too close to the West. The fact that the clerical council that evaluates presidential candidates allowed five conservatives to run against a single reformist signals that the supreme leader wants a lieutenant who will pursue a Similar agenda.
Is that important?
In Iran’s system, the supreme leader makes all the biggest decisions, especially when it comes to important issues like nuclear negotiations and foreign policy. But the president can set the tone, as Rouhani did in pursuing a nuclear deal with the West.
Whoever becomes president is likely to have more freedom to manage issues like social restrictions — not just the enforcement of headscarves, which has been a constant flashpoint between Iran’s rulers and its people, but also sensitive issues like whether female singers can perform on stage.
He will also have some influence on the country’s economic policy. Inflation has skyrocketed in recent years and the value of the Iranian currency has plummeted, making life difficult for Iranians as the value of their wages and savings evaporate. Fresh fruit, vegetables and meat have all become difficult to come by for many people.
But efforts to revive the economy can only go so far as Iran continues to face US and European sanctions that restrict its oil sales and crucial banking transactions.
What will this mean for the Middle East crisis and Iran’s nuclear program?
Outside of Iran, all eyes are on the country’s further nuclear and foreign policy.
Iran is a key player in a conflict that continues to threaten to spread from Gaza, where Iran’s longtime foe Israel is waging a bloody war to wipe out Hamas, into the wider Middle East. Iran has supported, funded and armed not only Hamas but also Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia on Israel’s northern border with which Israel has exchanged repeated and deadly attacks in recent months.
Although that violence has not yet metastasized into war, partly because Iran does not want to be drawn into a broader conflict, Israel has recently raised its voice, warning that it could shift its focus from Gaza to Lebanon. And Iran and Israel no longer limit their hostilities to proxy wars or covert attacks: The two sides have carried out overt, albeit limited, attacks on the territory. each other this year.
It’s also unclear what the election of a new president will mean for the West’s years-long effort to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Six years after Mr. Trump withdrew the United States from the original nuclear deal, Iran is now closer than ever to being able to produce some nuclear weapons. And after decades of insisting that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, some top Iranian leaders are openly arguing that recent missile exchanges with Israel mean Iran should pursue a bomb.
