How the US can qualify for the World Cup in Qatar: Explaining the scenarios facing the USMNT in 2022
Only the final two matches in January and March 2022 will determine the three lucky nations from the CONCACAF region (North America, Central America and the Caribbean) that will travel to Qatar for the World Cup next November.
The United States men’s national team will enter the final games with confidence that a repeat of the 2018 qualifying defeat is a distant possibility at this point given the current cumulative totals. Back in 2018, USMNT lost at home to Costa Rica and fell en route to Trinidad & Tobago who were eliminated on the final day. Those two results ultimately eliminated the Americans from the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
After qualifying for the previous seven FIFA World Cups, it seems one conclusion that can’t be ignored is that the US will always make a big leap forward. But the humble lesson 2018 has taught the fans as well as the players is that the slightest mistake in qualifying can have dire consequences and no outcome can be taken for granted here. CONCACAF area. US fans were left in a constant state of uneasiness after that experience.
THAN: USMNT squad for World Cup Qualifiers
So far, so good for the 2022 release. USMNT is in a solid position after eight games (2nd place) with the top three finishers being Qatar after 14 matches played. The fourth-placed team will be spared for the play-in series with a wild-type team from another region. But many US fans may not be able to handle the kind of tension that comes to fourth place. We analyze how the Americans were able to completely avoid and lock in the top three.
| Team | PTS | GP | W | OFFER | NS | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Canada | 16 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 5 | +8 |
| 2. America | 15 | 8 | 4 | first | 3 | twelfth | 5 | +7 |
| 3. Mexico | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 |
| 4. Panama | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 |
| 5. Costa Rica | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -first |
| 6. Jamaica | 7 | 8 | first | 3 | 4 | 6 | ten | -4 |
| 7. El Salvador | 6 | 8 | first | 4 | 3 | 4 | ten | -6 |
| 8. Honduras | 3 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -ten |
How many points to qualify for the World Cup?
If we are using past regional World Cup qualifying cycles for historical comparison, we need to use the points-per-game (PPG) metric, as only 10 matches were played in the finals. concluding CONCACAF over the years (compared to 14 matches on the calendar before Qatar 2022).
THAN: Which teams have qualified for the World Cup?
The top three places (scores per game in bold) that qualify directly for each World Cup are listed below. And starting with the 2006 World Cup, the fourth place team entered the play-in series against a country from another region.
| Qualification | Day 1 | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | day 5 | 6th | Saturday | 8th | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | – | – | |
| 2002 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | – | – | |
| 2006 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – | |
| 2010 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | – | – | |
| 2014 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | – | – | |
| 2018 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | – | – | |
| 2022 * | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
* = Current score per game based on CONCACAF 2022 qualifying standings after seven matches
What sets it apart from the table above is that 1.7 or 1.8 points per game (or greater) seems like a magic number. USMNT currently has 1.9 points per game clip with six matches left to play. But the margins are fine: Teams in the 1.6-point-per-game territory have sweated the past several World Cup cycles.
After a slow start to the 2022 World Cup qualifying schedule, consecutive wins have lifted the USMNT to 1.7 and 2.0 points per game more favorably. Although the October 10 loss to Panama sent the fan base into a frenzy once again, it was clipped back to 2.0 thanks to the win over Mexico.
USMNT . World Cup Qualifier Schedule
| Match | Day | Opponent / Result | Highlights | PPG |
| first | Thursday, September 2, 2021 | El Salvador 0, USA 0 | Highlights | 1.0 |
| 2 | Sun, September 5, 2021 | USA 1, Canada 1 | Highlights | 1.0 |
| 3 | Wednesday, September 8, 2021 | Honduras 1, USA 4 | Highlights | 1.7 |
| 4 | Thursday, October 7, 2021 | USA 2, Jamaica 0 | Highlights | 2.0 |
| 5 | Sun, October 10, 2021 | Panama 1, USA 0 | Highlights | 1.6 |
| 6 | Wednesday, October 13, 2021 | USA 2, Costa Rica 1 | Highlights | 1.8 |
| 7 | Friday, November 12, 2021 | USA 2, Mexico 0 | Highlights | 2.0 |
| 8 | Tuesday, November 16, 2021 | Jamaica 1, USA first | Highlights | 1.9 |
So what needs to happen in practice for the US to be comfortable in the 1.7-1.8 points-per-game range they need to qualify without breaking a sweat?
We tried to predict a range of outcomes to come, taking a series of less favorable outcomes: losing to Mexico and Canada, and drawing to Jamaica and Costa Rica. Assuming the USMNT is also capable of a perfect 3-0-0 home win for the rest of the run, that would leave the US right at 1.8 points per game and probably in a comfortable position. .
THAN: Why is there no VAR in the CONCACAF qualifiers
So what is clear is that, in addition to home business, the US needs to hit a bigger outcome or two (e.g. win Canada or Mexico) to really be able to cruise and avoid The pressure proved crippling. Four years ago, when the Americans failed to secure the results they needed on the final day of the 2018 qualifiers, in other words, add at least 11 to 14 points from the last 18 available.
Turning just a draw into a win in the expected outcome scenario outlined below would push US points-per-game above the magic 1.8 mark, enough to qualify for past qualifying.
USMNT Result Projection (3W-2L-1D)
| Match | Day | Opponent / Result | PPG |
| 9 | Thursday, January 27, 2022 | United States 2, El Salvador 0 (Victory) | 2.0 |
| ten | Sunday January 30, 2022 | Canada 1, United States 0 (Lose) | 1.8 |
| 11 | Wednesday, February 2, 2022 | United States 2, Honduras 1 (Victory) | 1.9 |
| twelfth | Thursday, March 24, 2022 | Mexico 1, United States 0 (Lose) | 1.7 |
| 13 | Sunday, March 27, 2022 | USA 1, Panama 0 (Victory) | 1.8 |
| 14 | Wednesday, March 30, 2022 | Costa Rica 0, United States 0 (Painting) | 1.8 |
Shirts on the CONCACAF chart
There is always the possibility that the CONCACAF rankings are extremely tight and that the United States is tied with one or more of the other seven countries in the qualifying rankings. Lace tops will be born.
Here is the standings for the teams even by points:
- Goal difference in all group stage matches
- Score the most goals in all group stage matches
- Most of the points are obtained from group stage matches between the teams involved
- Goal difference compared to group stage matches between the teams involved
- Most of the goals were scored in group stage matches between the teams involved
- Goal scored away (if two teams tie)
- Disciplinary points (based on yellow/red cards)
- FIFA draw
The Qatar FIFA World Cup will take place from November 21 to December 18, 2022.
