How the former guard of the Thai army might react to the election results

Thailand’s primary election result was a victory for the Progressive Progressive Party, but the party’s reforms are set to intimidate conservative forces that might act to prevent the pro-democracy party from taking control. permission.

Move Forward leader and chosen prime minister candidate Pita Limjaroenrat announced a six-party coalition including Pheu Thai, a populist, pro-democracy party that came second in the election.

This gives the coalition 310 seats in the 500-seat lower house of parliament. Whoever is appointed prime minister by the coalition must win 376 parliamentary votes – a combined number from the military-appointed 250-seat Senate and lower house. The vote to elect the Prime Minister is scheduled to take place in August after the Election Commission confirms the election results.

Analysts say Move Forward faces a daunting task of winning the remaining 66 votes due to controversial proposed policies – a new constitution that would end the military’s domination of the country. politics, abolishing compulsory military service, abolishing business monopolies and amending laws when the military punished insults to the king with prison time.

The Progressive Party recently said potential coalition partners do not need to support their stance on military crime when they plan to bring the issue to parliament independently — their refusal to compromise is also important. could isolate potential allies and most of the junta-led Senate.

Before the prime ministerial vote, political observers predicted a variety of outcomes, including the possibility of coercive intervention by the country’s powerful military-monarchy alliance.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University’s Department of Political Science and a senior fellow at the Institute of International and Security Studies, said: “The Move Forward agenda is an insult and a challenge. directly to established centers of power.

“The issue may be when and how – not whether – they will strike back.”

Royalists could go so far as to ban Move Forward, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warning in a report.

It is a plausible scenario since the conservative conservative elite has influence over official bodies such as the Constitutional Court, the National Anti-Corruption Commission and the Election Commission. For example, the opposition Future Forward party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in 2020 for violating electoral laws during the 2019 election — an allegation that Human Rights Watch calls for “Political motives.”

Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) echoed in a separate report: “The courts may seek to nullify the Move Forward and Pheu Thai wins to shift the balance. power”.

There is also the possibility that Pita herself could become a target.

He was recently accused of violating the constitution by being a minor shareholder of a now defunct media company while serving as a member of parliament, which he denies. According to Pongsudhirak, this could be the potential basis for his disqualification and allow the Pheu Thai party to be less radical than the coalition leader.

Napisa Waitoolkiat, a political scientist at Naresuan University, notes that there is precedent for Pita’s case to be elucidated.

In 2001, the Constitutional Court acquitted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra of concealing assets even after he was indicted on corruption charges, she said. “If the elites choose to respect the vote of the Thai people, surely this time they can do the same as they did with Thaksin in 2001.”

There are other ways for the Senate to block Move Forward. According to CSIS, senators can abstain and refuse to endorse the Pita, leading to a deadlock. t

Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, said in a report that the Senate could also object to MPs choosing a prime minister, unless a hard-to-reach maximum majority is achieved. got 376 votes. She pointed in statements of senators who have hinted that they will not automatically endorse the winning party’s candidate.

Patton concludes: “Conservative forces have all the tools at their disposal to prevent Progress from taking power.

In that scenario, it is likely that the military will stage another coup, CSIS added. Thailand is no stranger to coups — and has experienced at least 19 coups since 1932. according to think tank.

Having just recovered from the crisis caused by the pandemic, officials also may not want street protests at risk. lose investor confidence and economic growth.

Patton said: “While the Thai military has been prepared to face the threat of resistance from Thailand’s northeastern countryside in the past, Move Forward’s commanding victories in Bangkok and other urban centers could make the military think twice.” She mentioned Opinion of the Thai Chamber of Commerce that shows business groups’ desire for a stable government rather than another period of political turmoil.

“As a result, the establishment can judge that allowing Move Forward to take office is a smarter tactical move,” she continued. “During previous periods of instability, such as the 2014 coup, the establishment acted when it felt that all options were exhausted.”

“This time, decision-makers can calculate that they can allow events to come their way and use legal options to act later if red lines are crossed.” Patton added.