Via Linnea Lueken
A recent article in Axios claims that the current global melting rate and sea level rise will accelerate unless global warming is stopped before it reaches 1.5°C. Axios also claims that even with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels will rise for centuries due to the “delayed response” of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Axios’ claims are misleading at best. Warming, sea level rise and melting ice will likely continue regardless of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, as it has been going on for much longer than anthropogenic emissions are a factor. There is no evidence that any out-of-control “tipping points” exist or are being approached, nor is there any evidence that sea level rise is accelerating. The ice mass naturally grows and shrinks at the north and south poles.
Posts, “Research shows drastic cuts in emissions are needed to stop sea level rise for centuries,” discusses a new study that leads to some old, unoriginal conclusions. Basically, unless humans stop emitting greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane quickly to keep the temperature rise to 1.5°C or below (the earth has already warmed 1.2°C). ), rapid ice melting and sea level rise will occur.
Writer Andrew Freedman cites a study published in natural communication, to support his story. Describing the study’s methodology, Freedman writes that it “uses a variety of simulations from what is known as a ‘coherent’ computer model in which interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets and ice shelves are included. include and are likely to influence each other over time.”
Usually, these alarming predictions are not based on observable data but on computer model predictions that are biased towards anthropogenic warming. Climate realism discussed problems with climate modeling dozens of times, including This, ThisAnd ThisFor example.
In fact, scientists’ understanding of how the atmosphere and the clouds, oceans and ice caps at the poles interact limited in scope, with new connections and responses being discovered at regular intervals. Given the enormous complexity of Earth’s climate, it’s no surprise that modelers Consistency failed to accurately predict future warming and downstream effect like sea level rise.
Regarding sea level rise, current and previous trends are hardly alarming. A glimpse of the climate: Sea level rise shows that global sea levels have risen since the end of the last ice age, long before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels, sometimes at a rate far exceeding that of about 1.2 inches per decade. century is measured over the past few centuries. (See picture below)
Sea levels have risen more than 400 feet since the end of the last ice age. As discovered in Climate realism, This And This, for example, the recent claims that the rate of sea level rise has increased over the past few decades is due to an incorrect calculation method for the change from one set of satellites to a new set of satellites. than. Tide measurement data do not support the claim that the rate of sea level rise is increasing rapidly.
Freedman stated that the study demonstrated “even if global warming slows near or just after 2100, as is the case in moderate to high emissions scenarios, the contribution of the ice sheet to the ink Sea level rise will continue to rise faster than that.”
The researchers themselves are quoted as claiming that the melting of the ice sheet would be “similar to a train running away”.
However, ice melt data shows no evidence of a “tipping point” that leads to rapid ice melt.
Look continent, one of the “at-risk” sites mentioned in the paper, it is clear that ice mass changes fluctuate over time. Despite a general decline in ice mass, the rate of loss has actually decreased in recent years, despite moderate warming and increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. (See picture below)
The loss of ice in Greenland to date is negligible compared to the mass of the entire Greenland ice sheet, the amount of ice lost each year is about 0.005% of the total mass.
The Antarctic ice sheets, also mentioned by Freedman as at risk of melting, are seeing the same unalarming melting trend. In realityRecent research concludes that Antarctica has seen modest ice expansion over the past few decades, as well as zero warming across the continent. Some areas, such as the Antarctic Peninsula, are more prone to melting, while the eastern part of the continent tends to cool and the ice to expand.
The discovery 800 year old penguin carcass was revealed after some Antarctic ice melt provided clear evidence that Antarctica experienced lower levels of ice and that warming allowed penguins to inhabit an area that was usually too icy during the Cold War. Medieval warm period, from 900 AD to 1200 AD
The researchers and Freedman claim that the ice sheets are just “delayed” in responding to global warming. However, as ice loss begins to increase, the researchers claim it shows that the ice sheets respond to warming almost instantaneously. It is clear that the researchers or Freedman never thought that climate models could be wrong, since they are constantly related to temperature and the response may not be as severe as they hypothesized as a result. Without a return to the ice age, sea levels will inevitably rise over time and the ice will melt, regardless of human-caused causes. These cycles of warming and cooling are natural elements of earth’s history. Although humans are likely to contribute to warming, the available data do not indicate an impending disaster due to sea level rise. Axios would probably be better served if they took a more skeptical approach to computer modeling, relying instead on publicly available (and easily accessible) sea level and ice melt data. .
https://www.heartland.org/about-us/who-we-are/linnea-lueken
Linnea Lueken is a Research Fellow with the Arthur B. Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy. As a Heartland Institute intern in 2018, she co-authored the Heartland Institute Policy Brief “Unmasking Four Persistent Myths About Hydraulic Fracture”.
Related
