Roger Caiazza
The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) recently issued Energy Trends as its “annual analysis of factors affecting New York State’s electric grid and wholesale electricity.”
Market”. This post highlights the expectation that electricity supplies will be “sufficient to meet expected summer demand under baseline conditions, but in more extreme summer weather scenarios, concerns Reliability potential has been determined” regarding heat wave forecast for the Northeast and Midwest next week.
NYISO Energy Trends
NYISO recently released their strength assessment: Power Trend Resources is the landing page for the document, Power trends 2024 is the report and there is one Power trends fact sheet. If you are interested in looking at the key developments and emerging issues in a jurisdiction trying to make a net zero transition then I recommend you check out this document. For this post, I will only highlight the Key Messages listed:
- Public policies continue to drive rapid change in the state’s electricity system, impacting how electricity is produced, transmitted and consumed.
- Electrification programs and economic development initiatives are driving expected demand higher. Generator shutdowns are outpacing new supply additions. Together, these forces are narrowing the margin of trust across New York.
- Potential delays in building new supply and transmission, above forecast demand, and extreme weather are threatening grid reliability and resilience.
- Electricity supplies are sufficient to meet expected summer demand under normal conditions, but extreme weather and other factors pose reliability risks.
- The New York statewide electric grid is projected to become a winter peaking system in the 2030s, driven primarily by electrification for space heating and transportation.
- On the coldest days, natural gas availability for power generation may be limited and significant disruptions in natural gas supply may disrupt reliable operations.
- NYISO’s connectivity processes continue to evolve to balance developer flexibility with the need to manage processes to more stringent timeframes. Efforts are underway to make this process more efficient while protecting grid reliability.
- To achieve CLCPA mandates, new zero-emissions supplies are needed that are capable of providing services with the reliability needed to replace the capabilities of today’s generation. Such new supplies are not yet available on a commercial scale.
- The NYISO-managed wholesale electricity market exists as an important tool to attract the investments needed to facilitate grid transformation in the coming decades.
There is a lot of information in this report that could inform another article. Suffice it to say that the conclusion is that I describe it using careful language to suggest that there are issues that must be addressed that are not being addressed and say that New York’s current energy direction is crazy . What will wake up New York?
For this post, I just want to cover the Reliability Outlook for Summer 2024. I’ve highlighted a special concern for next week in this section’s excerpt:
NYISO grid planning and operations teams collaborate with utilities, suppliers and stakeholders to prepare for expected summer weather conditions. NYISO forecasts conditions based on expected normal or baseline weather conditions as well as severe weather conditions. New York recorded a record high of 33,956 megawatts (MW) in July 2013. By summer 2024, NYISO expects electricity supplies to be sufficient to meet expected summer demand in baseline conditions, but in more severe summer weather scenarios, potential reliability concerns have been raised. identify.
By summer 2024, NYISO expects to have 34,913 MW of resources available to meet 31,541 MW of forecast demand under normal conditions. However, in extreme summer weather conditions, the predicted reliability limits may be short without reliance on emergency operating procedures. For example, if the state experiences a heat wave with an average daily temperature of 95 degrees lasting three or more days, demand is forecast to increase to 33,301 MW, while supply is forecast to decrease 34,502 MW. Taking into account the 2,620 MW of operating reserves required to be maintained, this scenario results in a forecast confidence margin of -1,419 MW. That confidence margin further dropped to -3,093 MW under an extreme heat wave with an average daily temperature of 98 degrees. Under these more severe summer weather conditions, NYISO forecasts available supply of 34,317 MW to meet the required 2,620 MW operating reserve requirement, plus forecast demand of 34,790 MW.
To maintain reliability, NYISO operators can dispatch up to 3,275 MW of additional capacity through emergency operating procedures. These emergency operating procedures are not reflected in the forecast confidence limits described above. To mitigate reliability risks, NYISO operators conduct weekly outreach to suppliers to address resource availability risks and coordinate with both generation and transmission owners to Reduce the impact of power outages in hot weather. Additionally, NYISO operators coordinate with neighboring areas to support regional grid reliability.
Forecast
New York has a very unbalanced load profile with New York City and its suburbs having the highest loads. NYISO may weight temperature by population and load, and I’m not sure how they calculate average temperatures statewide. For this forecast, I used the National Weather Service Extended Forecast (seven days) for Albany, Buffalo, New York City, and Syracuse. Table 1 lists the high and low temperature forecasts for those cities. I calculated the statewide average daily temperature as the average of the high and low values in all four cities.
As shown in Table 1, a threshold of concern for an average daily temperature of 95 degrees appears unlikely. However, discussions about forecasts mention that there is uncertainty in these forecasts so it will be worth watching to see what happens.
Discussions
Power Trends figures listing power outages and replenishments reveal the inherent stupidity of New York’s current energy policy. Since 2019, politicians have forced the early shutdown of more than 2,000 MW of nuclear power sources just north of New York City. To address the problems of not achieving the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ozone, the State was forced to retire or supplement legacy controls. Power plants peaked in New York City. Political pressure has blocked proposals to replace those devices with much cleaner modern devices that we know can provide enough reliable resources. .
The Power Trends report highlights the risks coming to New York. NYISO figures indicate that more than 5,000 MW of dispatchable generation that has provided New York State with reliable service for decades has been shut down. In their place are wind and solar projects that check all of the State’s environmental goals but may not deliver power when it is needed most. Although the State is not yet completely reliant on wind and solar, state policies that have closed off and discouraged the development of conventionally generated energy sources mean that the toolbox of options is used to maintain reliability have lost options. The risk of power outages is increasing, so stay tuned for what happens in the first stress test of the year.
I’ll post an update on what happened next week.
Roger Caiazza blogs about New York’s energy and environmental issues at New York environmentalist. This represents his views and not those of any of his previous employers or any other companies with which he has worked.
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