French Senate approves President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopular plan increase retirement age two years ahead on Thursday, setting the stage for a decisive, if much more unpredictable, vote in Congress, the lower house, later in the day.
Afterward wave of protest and strikes that disrupt public transport and garbage piled upAll eyes are on the National Assembly, where the vote could be very close, ending a two-month confrontation between the French government and labor unions that are testing its political agenda. Mr. Macron.
Hundreds of thousands of protesters parades in cities across France on Wednesday, when a small committee of 14 lawmakers from both houses agreed on a joint version of the pension bill, raising the age when most workers can retire on a government pension to 64, from 62.
“We are facing a vote that will determine the next 15 years of our country and the lives of our compatriots, a vote for an entire generation,” said Gabriel Attal, budget minister, speaking before the French Senate on Thursday. “Do we want to assure 20 million people about to retire that they can count on a funded pension so they can maintain a lifestyle they are not willing to sacrifice?”
For Mr. Macron, who has spent a lot of time since his re-election last year focus on diplomatic issues like the war in Ukraine, the passage of the law is crucial to his domestic legacy. He cannot run for re-election in 2027, as the French Constitution limits presidents to two consecutive five-year terms.
“If the overhaul is passed, it means that Macron has a new political space for reform,” he said. Pascal Perrineau, a professor of political science at Science Po in Paris. Mr. Macron, he said, “will in some way regain his domestic image as a reform-minded president.”
The senate, France’s upper house, was widely expected to pass the pension law, because it was controlled by mainstream conservatives, who mostly supported the bill and passed the previous version. that of it.
But in the National Assembly, the lower house and more powerful, Mr. Macron’s party and its allies have only one mostly slim. The outcome of a vote there on Thursday afternoon – or whether there will be a vote – remains unclear.
At the heart of that uncertainty is a difficult choice for Mr. Macron.
Is he confident enough lawmakers will support the bill and let his government keep voting? That might assuage criticism that the government acted undemocratic by using all available constitutional tools to push the bill through, but it could lead to a setback. bitter defeat.
Or will the government use a legal tool to pass changes without a vote, secure passage but incite anger in the streets? That is a risk at a time when French confidence in political institutions is at its lowest level since the second world war. Yellow Vest protest of Mr. Macron’s first term, according to a recent report learn.
“Is it Russian roulette, or is it Big Bertha,” Bruno Retailleau, a leading conservative Republican senator, said last week to sum up the dilemma, referring to the famous German World War I-era howitzer.
Over the past week, the French media and politicians have been frantically assessing the views of each legislator and expected vote count to assess the bill’s chances in Congress. The convoluted parliamentary procedure is suddenly in the spotlight. Lawmakers on the far left even began live tweeting the proceedings of the small committee of lawmakers that met on Wednesday.
Such compelling parliamentary drama is rare during Mr Macron’s first term, when his party and his allies have a strong majority in support of most of his policies and he doesn’t need to go. cross the aisle or enter into last-minute behind-the-scenes deals.
Mr Macron’s government says that as the ratio of workers to retirees falls, it needs to avert a long-term deficit in the pension system, on which workers and employers pay payroll taxes. .
Opponents dispute both the urgency and method of Mr Macron’s reforms, accusing him of chipped in a cherished right and unfairly burden blue-collar workers because he refused to raise taxes on the rich.
Benoît Teste, head of the Fédération Syndicale Unitaire, one of the main unions of teachers, said: “Employees, young people, pensioners and more broadly the general public have unanimously opposed the wage reform project. retirement. evening.
In addition to raising the legal retirement age, the bill would repeal retirement rules that are particularly beneficial for workers in sectors such as energy and transportation, and increase the number of years a person must pay. into the system to receive a full pension. It will provide some exceptions for those who started their careers at a young age.
As Mr Macron’s Renaissance party and its allies no longer have an absolute majority in Parliament, they must rely on Republicans, whose leaders have expressed support for the bill but members Their members were more divided. Some lawmakers from Macron’s own party and allies also expressed displeasure with his proposal.
A constitutional instrument that the government can use to pass a bill — called 49.3, the provision of the French Constitution from which it originates – allows the government to pass a bill without a vote but introduces a motion of no confidence. If that petition is passed, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and her ministers would have to resign, and the bill would be rejected.
While Mr. Macron’s left-wing and far-right opponents are willing to sign a motion of no confidence, most Republican lawmakers, even those opposed to the pension bill, are reluctant to overturn the bill. government collapse, which means such a step is likely to fail, leaving the pension measure unchanged.
Protesters marching in Paris on Wednesday denounced any use of Article 49.3, saying it would violate democratic process. “If they dare to use 49.3,” shouted one union leader at the booing crowd, “we will hold them accountable!”
Ms Borne used this tactic several times in the fall to enact financial measures, but the government has repeatedly said it wanted to avoid doing so in this case.
While it is difficult to predict the long-term ramifications of Thursday’s vote, political analyst Mr Perrineau said previous pension protests often dissipated once Parliament got a voice. speak.
“The reform was unpopular, there was a strong protest movement, the public opinion was more or less supportive, but then the National Assembly voted and the movement went up in smoke,” Mr. Perrineau said.
For example, in 2010, President Nicolas Sarkozy successfully raised the legal retirement age to 62 from 60 despite massive street protests.
While polls consistently show that around two-thirds of the French public disapprove of Mr Macron’s pension reform, studies also show that most people think it will pass.
Catherine Porter And Meheut’s constant contribution report.
