The Breeders’ Cup World Championships is the last word handicapping puzzle for horseplayers, and it’s particularly interesting to those that adhere to the maxim of “guess a bit to win loads.”
The 14-race slate Nov. 5-6 brings collectively nice horses from all areas within the U.S. in addition to from abroad, which signifies that yr after yr, top-class runners with full résumés go off at odds far increased than they might in every other setting.
Discovering and taking part in longshots within the Breeders’ Cup can turn into much more profitable if you’ll be able to additionally choose – and toss out of your betting slips – a number of horses which can be underlays; that’s, ones which can be receiving extra help from bettors than they need to and thus carrying decrease odds (try ABR’s primer on gambling terms for more information).
Zigging whereas everybody else zags is the essence of astute betting in any surroundings, and in horse racing it will possibly result in remunerative payouts.
So, which morning-line favorites within the thirty eighth Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar are weak to lose at quick odds? Listed here are 5 candidates:
1. Echo Zulu (4-5, $2 million NetJets Juvenile Fillies)
It’s positively exhausting to argue in opposition to backing a filly that’s dominated her three races by a complete of 16 ¾ lengths and has dealt with stretching out in distance every time – from 5 ½ furlongs to seven furlongs to a mile – with ease. The Spinaway Stakes and Frizette Stakes winner ought to be the Juvenile Fillies favourite in opposition to a 5 opponents … however at morning line odds of 4-5? Reality is, two different fillies are entered who’re additionally coming into the race off of overpowering graded stakes wins, and each of them have gained at 1 1/16 miles round two turns. Granted, Juju’s Map and Hidden Connection (each 5-2) are delivery in from a Kentucky circuit that could be a bit much less formidable than Echo Zulu’s New York base when it comes to expertise, however they each have additionally been visually spectacular when profitable by open lengths and are coaching exceptionally effectively. I don’t assume Echo Zulu’s jockey change to Joel Rosario is a disadvantage given Rosario’s prior success at Del Mar, however the lack of two-turn basis is simply sufficient of a query mark to make me look elsewhere, particularly at odds of 4-5.
2. Gamine (3-5, $1 million Filly and Mare Sprint)
Gamine at her finest justifies the 3-5 odds and would handily defeat this small area (solely 4 opponents with the late scratch of Estilo Talentoso). However is she at her finest in 2021? Based mostly on what I’ve seen, she remains to be an elite feminine sprinter, however her Equibase Velocity Figures have slipped a bit and her margins of victory in her two Grade 1 wins this yr – the Derby City Distaff Stakes Presented by Kendall-Jackson Winery and her most up-to-date begin, the Ballerina Stakes – have “solely” been by 1 ½ and 1 ¾ lengths, respectively. New York-based 3-year-old Bella Sofia (5-2) is popping heads along with her blazing velocity and dominant, open-length wins similar to Gamine did throughout her sophomore season a yr in the past. If she and Gamine get connected in a grueling tempo twin, Grade 1 winner Ce Ce (4-1) has the rallying working type and confirmed stamina to publish the upset.
3. Golden Pal (7-2, $1 million Turf Sprint)
Coolmore’s Golden Pal, winner of final yr’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Dash, is the definition of a lukewarm favourite at 7-2 odds in a 12-horse area. He’s definitely a top-class turf sprinter, and the five-furlong distance of the Turf Dash at Del Mar (versus 5 ½ or six furlongs in most previous editions of this race) fits him completely. He’s a need-the-lead kind, although, and even with common rider Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, I don’t see him getting a simple early journey from post-position three; in actual fact, the horses drawn to his rapid exterior, locally-based Lieutenant Dan (6-1) and Golden Pal’s Wesley Ward-trained stablemate Arrest Me Red (12-1) may put the strain on Golden Pal from the outset. General, greater than half the horses on this area have a official shot to win, and I shall be taking part in a four-horse exacta field of closers with defending Turf Dash winner Glass Slippers (6-1), fellow Euro shipper Emaraaty Ana (5-1), Kimari (6-1), and Gear Jockey (5-1). Kimari, the third Ward trainee on this race, is pace-dependent, however in my view this filly is probably the most purely proficient runner within the 2021 Turf Dash and is deserving of a win guess as effectively.
4. War Like Goddess (7-2, $2 million Maker’s Mark Filly and Mare Turf)
Analyzing Battle Like Goddess’s possibilities within the 2021 Filly and Mare Turf actually boils down to at least one query: after dominating on these shores, can she flash that very same brilliance when dealing with a quartet of top-class worldwide shippers? The Bill Mott trainee has toyed with East Coast-based home horses since final spring. On paper, she seems to be two or three lengths higher than any of the 4 U.S.-based runners entered within the Filly and Mare Turf, and three of the seven overseas horses as effectively. However the remaining 4 are very formidable, and that’s mirrored of their odds: current French Group 1 winner Rougir (6-1), the Coolmore filly Love (4-1), Japanese-based and -bred Loves Only You (4-1), and defending Filly and Mare Turf winner Audarya (5-1). Audarya truly could also be an underlay at these odds as she’s gone winless in 4 begins since her 17.80-1 upset at Keeneland final yr, however the different three are scary. Particularly, Love’s kind over the previous yr and a half is flat-out superior – she’s gained 4 Group 1 stakes since June 2020, and two of her three losses since then have come in opposition to males Adayar (the Epsom Derby winner) and Mishriff (the Saudi Cup and Dubai Sheema Basic winner), whereas the opposite one (in her most up-to-date begin) was by a nostril. Each Love and Loves Solely You might desire racing longer than 1 3/8 miles, whereas Battle Like Goddess is undefeated in three begins at this distance, however their degree of competitors has been a lot more durable. That is going to be a unbelievable race, and I might not be shocked if Battle Like Goddess truly is the second or third betting alternative when the gates open.
5. Knicks Go (5-2, $6 million Longines Classic)
I’ve taken a stand in opposition to this horse a number of instances over the previous yr and, save a good payout within the Hill ‘n’ Dale Met Mile, have solely discarded tickets to indicate for it. Knicks Go is the dictionary definition of “one-dimensional,” but it surely’s a demoralizing dimension whereby any challengers who enter it spend the whole lot of the expertise viewing his galloping hind quarters and wagging tail earlier than returning to the barn defeated. On paper, the Longines Basic would seem to offer contrarians similar to myself the final, and finest, likelihood to guess in opposition to Knicks Go based mostly on a projected tempo situation that places Medina Spirit (4-1), Art Collector (8-1), and probably Hot Rod Charlie (4-1) proper as much as problem (or no less than strain) the front-runner by the primary six furlongs or so, which can hold him from entering into his regular cruising rhythm that seems so easy however in actual fact is overpoweringly quick. If that chaotic front-end scrum fails to materialize, it’s throughout and I’ll tip my cap to a horse that first got here on the scene as a 70-1 shocker at age 2 and is now the clear Horse of the 12 months favourite at age 5. But when it does come to cross, this Longines Basic ought to arrange for a stalker with stamina – assume Knicks Go’s stablemate Essential Quality (3-1) and even Max Player (8-1) – to return from behind and win.
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