Five playoff slots and many seeded matches still available, with 32 games remaining in NFL regular season 2022. The possible permutations of how those 32 games can play out are virtually endless. So we’re focusing on one particular scenario: chalk.
Use of ESPN Soccer Strength Stats (FPI), we identified the most likely seed combination in each conference. We then selected a single simulation that yielded that pure chalk knockout seed to predict scores for each game and simulate the post-season. There is a 9% chance that the NFC seeds are in the exact order written below and there is a 12% chance that the same thing happens with AFC. That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a pretty high probability for an accurate shot; both numbers are higher when we did this exercise previous season.
So we’re breaking down these final two weeks based on how ESPN’s FPI sees it play out in simulation number 5,899, yielding a chalk knockout stage. Who snuck into the knockout round? Who is the number 1 seed? And who fell short after the season? Take a look at FPI’s crystal ball.
Transfer to:
Scores: week 17 | week 18
Final standings: AFC | NFC
Expected score week 17
MORALITY: Cowboy 16, Giant 13
ARI-ATL: Falcon 22, Cardinal 21
PIT-BAL: Steelworker 13, Crow 10
CHI-DET: Bear 37, Lion 29
MIN-GB: Packer 23, Viking 16
JAX-HOU: Texan 30, Jaguar 16
DEN-KC: Chief 45, Broncos 7
LAR-LAC: Charger 49, Ram 27
SF-LV: Raid 23, 49ers 16
MIA-NE: Patriots 13, Dolphin 10
IND-NYG: Giant 34, Colts 0
NO MOTHER: Eagle 44, Saint 27
NYJ-SEA: Seahawks 13, Jet 6
CAR-TB: Killer 24, Leopard 21
CLE-WSH: Commander 41, Browns 10
BUF-CIN: Bill 37, Bengals 9
The story of Week 17 is a picture of the knockouts that is a bit more focused but still lackluster as we head into the final week of the season.
In the NFC wild card match, the Giants secured a spot with a decisive victory over the Colts. But the final wild card position is still up for grabs when the Lion stumbles — Justin’s Field and the Bears’ ground game dropped 37 points for Detroit’s defense — while the Packers, Seahawks and Commanders all won.
In the AFC wild card race, the Dolphins lost to New England, hurting their playoff chances. The jet fell into the hands of the Seahawks, knocking New York out of the race.
The Steelers beat Raven, keeping Pittsburgh alive. That could also hurt Baltimore’s chances of winning the AFC North championship… except that the Bengal team also lost to the Bills by a margin, meaning the split will last until Week 18.
Expected score week 18
TB-ATL: Ranger 34, Falcon 17
NE-BUF: Bill 27, Patriotic 17
MIN-CHICK: Bear 34, Viking 24
BAL-CIN: Bengal 31, Crow 25
Black Peacock: Broncos 41, Charger 33
DET-GB: Packers 37, Lions 10
HOU-IND: Texans 16, Colts 10
TEN-JAX: Leopard 30, Giant 6
KC-LV: Leader 35, Raid 27
NYJ-MIA: Dolphin 19, Jet 17
NO CAR: Saint 21, Newspaper 20
NYG-FISH: Eagle 31, Giant 15
CLE-PIT: Brown 20, Steel 12
ARI-SF: 49ers 31, Cardinals 22
LAR-SEA: Rams 23, Seahawks 16
DAL-WSH: Cowboy 47, Commander 7
The most notable developments of Week 18? The Packers’ utopian run comes post-season after an almost forgettable year. At the same time, the Lions – who looked like they were heading straight into a wild landing a few weeks earlier – slipped on a three-game losing streak to end the season. Green Bay also needed a Commander’s loss, and it got it and then several Cowboys losses in Washington.
The Jaguars beat the Titans to claim the AFC South crown. Team Bengal beat Raven to win the AFC North Championship and held a rematch next week — also in Cincinnati — in the wild card round.
And the Dolphins, who cut it too close, went up against the Jets for a 5-game losing streak and a wild card slot.
Predict how AFC plays out
first. buffalo bill (March 14)
2. Chief of Kansas City (March 14)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (12-5)
4. Jacksonville Jaguar (8-9)
5. Los Angeles charger (10-7)
6. Baltimore Crows (10-7)
7. Miami Dolphins (9-8)
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8. New England Patriots (8-9)
9. Pittsburgh Steelworker (8-9)
ten. New York Jets (7-10)
11. Tennessee Giants (7-10)
twelfth. Cleveland Browns (7-10)
13. Las Vegas raid (7-10)
14. Dancer broncos (5-12)
15. Houston Texas (12-4-1)
16. Indianapolis University (12-4-1)
Bills secure top seed at AFC: Buffalo enters the final two weeks in control of its own destiny for the #1 seed but with two challengers in hot pursuit. The Bills went 12-3 — the same record as Kansas City but with a head-to-head record against the Captains and a game against the Bengals, their Week 17 rivals. For Buffalo, the mission was simple: Take care of the business and say goodbye. And that’s exactly what the Bills do, ramping up the offensive heat to take down the Bengals 37-9 in Week 17 before knocking out fellow Patriots in Week 18 with 10 points to finish on the scoreline. March 14. Josh Allen & Co. could take a week off before their post-season kicks off.
Bengals beat Ravens for AFC North: In recent weeks, it has felt inevitable that the hot Bengal team will win this tournament against the faltering Raven team. But after both teams lose in Week 17, move on to the competition in Week 18. And with a health lamar Jackson Back in the conflict, this is no gimmick for Cincinnati. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase However, Cincinnati’s offense completed it, dropping 31 points to Raven in the one-point contest in Week 18, giving the Bengals a home-field advantage in a post-season rematch a week later.
The jaguar returns to steal the AFC South crown: It is not beautiful. It’s not even a 0.500 record. But the Jaguars stole the championship by sneaking past the sinking Titans, when Jacksonville delivered the final blow in a 30-6 game in Week 18. Trevor Lawrence great again for Jags, while Titans’ Malik Willis-led attack can never get away. Victory sets a spice Justin Herbert versus Lawrence’s wild card match.
Dolphins cling to playoff points: After losing to New England in Week 17, Miami was out of control as it entered Week 18, needing a win and a loss for the Patriots to get in. White Mike-led the Jets in a 19-17 victory, while the Bills knocked out New England. Miami met the dangerous No. 7 seed and set up an exciting offensive match against the Captain in the knockout round.
Predict how NFC works
first. Philadelphia Eagles (15-2)
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
3. Minnesota Vikings (12-5)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
5. dalas cowboy (13-4)
6. New York Giants (9-7-1)
7. Green Bay Packers (9-8)
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8. Commander Washington (8-8-1)
9. Seattle Seahawks football team (8-9)
ten. Saint New Orleans (7-10)
11. Detroit lion (7-10)
twelfth. The Los Angeles Rams (6-11)
13. Carolina Newspaper (6-11)
14. Atlanta Falcon (6-11)
15. Chicago bear (5-12)
16. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
Eagles lock down the #1 seed week 17: After the Cowboys beat Minshew gardener-led Eagles in Week 16, had a very short #1 seed drama. But the Eagles quickly quelled that, taking down the Saints decisively in Week 17 to claim the top spot and secure some respite ahead of the knockout stages.
49ers of the 2nd seeded from Vikings: Burning Niners show up in Week 17, unexpectedly losing a game Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders. But the door to the 2nd seed was opened because the Vikings also stumbled before the Packers. And then the Vikings suffered a nasty loss to the Bears in the final week of the season, which allowed Brock Purdy and the 49ers beat the 2nd seed with a win over the Cardinals, securing a home field advantage in the division round.
Buccaneers cling to the NFC South crown: Lots of hinge on the Bucs’ Week 17 competition with the Panthers. Victory? Bucs is participating. Lose? Everything gets complicated. But in this case, brave cat and the Bucs finished it, taking the underdog division crown despite a near miserable season. The Panthers gave them a test run, but Brady led a winning goal in the game to give Tampa Bay a 24-21 decision.
Packers count in the knockout round: After a 40-33 loss in Week 12 to the Eagles, the Packers looked done. At the time, FPI only gave Green Bay a 3% chance to make it to the post-season. But the thing about the 3% chance? It can still happen, and that’s what happens here. The Packers continued their five-game winning streak to end the year with a 9-8 record — ending with a win over the Lions (while the Command Team lost to the Cowboys) to enter the post-season. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are yet to come out.
The Cardinals earned #1 in the overall draft pick in the season-end stun game: Arizona has only a 2% chance of winning the overall #1 pick going into the final two weeks of competition, but that’s exactly what happens in this simulation. To end the campaign, the Texans and Bears won twice, the Broncos won once, and the Cardinals lost twice – which inevitably led to Arizona taking that top pick. It raises all kinds of opportunities and questions about the future of Cardinals leadership and the direction of the franchise, and at the same time, at a minimum, gives the team a tremendous asset to start with. rebuild.
What to expect in the knockout round
Expect wild card matches
(7) Dolphins at (2) Chiefs
(6) Crows at (3) Bengals
(5) Chargers at (4) Jaguars
(7) Packers at (2) 49ers
(6) Giants and (3) Vikings
(5) Cowboys at (4) Buccaneers
Who goes all the way? Well, this is just a simulation, but we can tell you how it goes at 5,899th place in the World. The Cowboys took down the Eagles in the split, ending Philadelphia’s great season. That puts the Cowboys against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, while the Bills and Chiefs play against each other in the AFC Championship Game featuring two heavyweights. Dallas overcame again, while Buffalo avenged Kansas City for the past two seasons. Finally… Bills Win the Super Bowl!
Note: ESPN’s Hank Gargiulo and Lauren Poe contributed to this story.
