ISTANBUL, Turkey — As President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey headed for the toughest election of his career on Sunday, he mobilized many state resources to tilt the playing field in favor of the country. me.
Mr. Erdogan, who has increasingly dominated the country over the past two decades, has tapped the Treasury for populist spending programs and has raised the minimum wage three times in the past year and a half. His opponent barely appeared on state television while Erdogan’s speeches were broadcast in full. And this weekend’s vote will be overseen by an election panel that, in recent polls, has made questionable calls in favor of the president.
And yet, Mr. Erdogan could still lose.
Recent polls show he’s following main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in a close race that could take place later this month. But Mr. Erdogan’s grip on the country could also contribute to his ruin, if voters abandon him for his aggressive ways and actions. persistently high inflation that made the Turks feel poorer.
“The elections are not fair, but they are free nonetheless, and that is why there is always the possibility of political change,” said Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based EDAM research group. rule in Turkey. “Prospect exists, and is now palpable.”
Mr. Erdogan has eroded democratic institutions, cornered the judiciary with loyalists and restricted freedom of expression. His main opponent, Kilicdaroglu, has vowed to restore democracy if he wins.
The close race speaks volumes about Türkiye’s complex character. Political scientists say that it is neither a complete democracy nor a total autocracy, but a combination of the two, in which the leader has preeminent power but Elections can still bring about change.
Turkey has never fallen into complete autocracy because electoral politics holds a sacred place in national identity, something that is revered by Mr. He and his ruling Justice and Development Party have regularly beaten their opponents at the ballot box over the years with no sign of foul play, giving Mr Erdogan a mandate.
Türkiye’s political ambiguity is also reflected in its global standing.
During Mr. Erdogan’s tenure, much of Turkey’s foreign policy has been tied to him personally as he has proven to be a necessary, but problematic – and sometimes confusing – partner of the West. . He condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sent aid to the Ukrainian government while not only refusing to join Western sanctions against Russia, but also expanding trade ties and drawing closer to the President. Russia Vladimir V. Putin.
He has argued with the United States over Syria policy and disparaged Washington in his speeches. He headed a NATO member state but thwarted the alliance’s expansion, delay The possibility of participation of Finland and still refuse accept Sweden.
All of which has at times left Western leaders wondering whose side he really is on.
A leadership change in Turkey would resonate worldwide, given the country’s unique position as a predominantly Muslim society with a staunch secular state and an important network of people. extensive economic and diplomatic relations spanning Asia, Africa, Europe and the Middle East.
Kilicdaroglu has promised that if he wins the election, he will improve relations with the West and make Turkey’s foreign policy less personal. But exactly what that will be is difficult to predict: He represents a coalition of six political parties with widely divergent ideologies, and his record offers few clues. Before entering politics, he was a civil servant who ran Türkiye’s social security agency.
After Mr. Erdogan rose to the national level as prime minister in 2003, he was seen by many as a new model of the Islamic democrat, a business advocate and interested in lasting relationships. closely with the West. During his first decade, the Turkish economy boomed, bringing millions into the middle class.
But more recently — after facing mass street protests against his style of rule, becoming president in 2014 and surviving a failed coup attempt in 2016 — he purged his enemies from the state bureaucracy, limited civil liberties, and concentrated power in his hands.
Mr. Erdogan retain a fervent following, especially among working-class, rural and more religious voters, who loved his rhetoric about standing up for Turkey against a host of enemies at home and abroad. . He pushed back against the secularism of the Turkish state, expanded Islamic education and changed regulations to allow women working in the government to wear the hijab.
The political opposition says his consolidation of power has gone too far and portrays Sunday’s vote as a decisive or disruptive moment for Turkish democracy, possibly inspiring for other countries struggling with ambitious autocrats.
Erdogan’s advantages, analysts say, are clear, starting with the privileges citizens can receive through affiliation with his political party, including state employment, social support and support. associations or local services such as new roads, analysts said.
The president’s use of power for electoral gain has raised questions about the true extent of these elections.
“It’s more like a mixed regime, where you have multi-party elections but the opposition doesn’t have the same opportunity as the government to take over,” said Ersin Kalaycioglu, a professor of political science at Sabanci University. their ideas and policies to the voters”. in Istanbul.
Mr. Erdogan has extended his influence over the mass media. Major news networks are owned by businessmen close to Erdogan, while news outlets critical of his policies are often subject to fines and lawsuits.
A recent analysis by the state-funded TV station TRT found that in April Mr. Kilicdaroglu received only 32 minutes of airtime. Mr. Erdogan has 32 hours.
“TRT operates like a public relations firm tasked with running the election campaign of the ruling party and its presidential candidate,” said Ilhan Tasci, an opposition party member at the agency. the state’s broadcasting regulator, said in a statement when releasing the data.
Oversaw Sunday’s vote was the Supreme Electoral Council, a jury. For decades it was seen as independent and trustworthy, but two recent decisions have damaged its reputation in the eyes of opposition supporters.
In 2017, while the votes were being counted referendum on the change of Türkiye from parliamentary to presidential, the council decided to reject the electoral law and including ballots that lack official stamps prove their authenticity. The referendum passed by a very small margin, allowing Erdogan, the president at the time, to greatly expand his powers.
In 2019, after an opposition candidate defeated Mr. Erdogan’s candidate in the mayoral race of Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, the council canceled the result, citing irregularities. and call for re-implementation. The same opposition candidate won that too, by an even larger margin.
Hasan Sinar, an associate professor of criminal law at Altinbas University in Istanbul, said those decisions raised questions about whether the electoral council was willing to rule against Mr. .
“On paper, they are neutral,” he said. “But when the government is in power for so long, no one in that position can be neutral anymore.” Any doubts about the neutrality of the electoral council, he added, are detrimental to Türkiye’s democracy. “This was never supposed to be poisoned by doubt,” he said.
In recent weeks, Mr. Erdogan has used his bully podium to take down the opposition, warning that the country will suffer the consequences under their leadership and accusing them of conspiring with the rebels. terrorism. Mr. Erdogan’s Interior Minister, Suleyman Soylu, who oversees the security forces, went further, sowing doubt about the outcome before the vote even began.
Last month, Mr Soylu said the election was “a Western political coup attempt”. “It was a coup plot conceived by gathering all the preparatory work to purge Türkiye.”
Days later, Mr Soylu said Mr Kilicdaroglu’s party was “always ready to cheat”.
Despite the problems, Turks still hope that Sunday’s poll will show the will of the people. This week, after Mr. Soylu asked the election board to share detailed data on polling places and voter registration so his department could set up its own system for counting votes, the election board refused. , saying that only they are given the right to count the votes. .
Others noted Mr. Erdogan’s longstanding commitment to electoral politics, hoping it means he’ll accept the loss should it happen.
“Turkey has a long tradition of multi-party democracy and is very attached to the integrity of the vote,” said Ulgen, director of EDAM. He added, if a clean vote is held, it will likely be respected, even by Mr.
But trouble can arise if the results are too close, prompting candidates to protest or question the process.
If the spread is very low, “all options are on the table,” Mr. Ulgen said.
Gulsin Harman contribution report.
