Rising electric vehicle sales in both the US and China could contribute to gasoline demand halving by 2024, advises Wood Mackenzie.
According to the report, demand could rise by 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 26.5 million bpd this year, but that would be the slowest growth since 2020 and down from a growth rate of 700,000 bpd. /day last year. And that’s partly because, with electric vehicle sales rising, China is approaching peak transportation fuel demand, while the US has passed, the note noted. Reuters.
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Wood Mackenzie analysts note that electric vehicles are only up about 2% in total registrations, but the cumulative number of electric vehicles on the road is now expected to be enough to impact gasoline demand. It’s a miracle because at least in America, The fleet of gasoline cars has increased next to the tram.
Wood Mackenzie also expects electric vehicle sales to increase throughout the rest of the year. In China – the world’s biggest new car market – local analysts predict slower growth of 24% this year compared with 36% last year, but that still means there will be more 11 million new electric vehicles add to the cumulative total, Wood Mackenzie noted. And the International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that falling prices could lead to an electric vehicle market share of 45% in China, 25% in Europe and 11% in the US This year.
2024 Tesla Model Y. – Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.
Other analysts have predicted that electric vehicles could come out on top 2/3 of global car sales in 2030 and see this as the point at which the dynamics of petroleum supply and demand will become very different.
Grid demand and emissions from switching to electric vehicles are also concerns, but increasing electric vehicle efficiency could help cut that for decades — and electric vehicles continue to operate. operate more efficiently based on the combination of energy they use.
