Despite predictions, the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2022 will fall below “Normal” – Can you accept that?

Despite predictions, 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will fall below “Normal”

Guest post by Larry Hamlin

In late May and again in early August 2022, NOAA predicts that the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season (June through late November) will be an “above normal” season with 14- 21 named storms, of which 6-10 include 3-6 major hurricanes (Category 3.4 and 5) as shown in the NOAA diagram below.

Colorado State University The Department of Atmospheric Sciences/Tropical Meteorology Project has compiled 2022 tropical storm data (shown below) determining that compared to a 30-year North Atlantic data record for the 1991 Climate period -2020, the 2022 hurricane season is below average in Named Hurricanes, Named Storm Dates, Hurricane Days, Major Hurricanes, Major Hurricane Days, and Cumulative Cyclone Energy (ACE).

NOAA’s projections are far from baseline in terms of major hurricanes with only 2 hurricanes occurring during the season compared to the 3-6 forecast range and only 14 total storms at the lowest end of the 14- forecast range. their 21.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season ended with only 78% of the average ACE recorded compared to its 30-year climate average ACE for the period 1991-2020. The ACE level in 2022 is 60% lower than occurred over a six-year period covers from 2016 to 2021 despite propaganda hype about climate alarmism that the world is experiencing a “climate emergency”.

The Colorado State University chart below shows that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is below the mean ACE results over the 30-year climate mean period from 1991-2020.

The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane data for each of the 14 named storms are shown below with the specific name, date of occurrence, maximum wind speed, and storm totals provided by ACE.

Note that the maximum wind speed of Hurricane Ian was determined to be 135 kts.

The Colorado State University report identifies the following information regarding rated maximum wind speed. “The tracking history for each storm is generated from operational alerts issued every six hours by the NHC, CPHC and JTWC. The positions and magnitudes are the best estimates of those quantities when an alert is issued. THIS IS NOT THE BEST WAY – have not been reanalyzed in any systematic way.”

The Best track history for major hurricane Ian provided below shows a maximum wind speed of 135 kts.

As always happens with each Atlantic hurricane season, the climate alarm propaganda media continues to misrepresent the Atlantic Hurricane data in ways that misrepresent the apparent magnitude and frequency of storms. hurricanes to promote their climate alarm program as recently illustrated (with cherry-picked hurricane history and hurricane categories as well as omitted efforts for hurricane days and ACE hurricane data ) of the New York Times as shown below.

Data from Colorado State University for the long-term history of the North Atlantic providing a complete record of major hurricanes, major hurricane days and total ACEs are shown below.

The data show alarming claims of climate-driven upward trends for recent major North Atlantic hurricanes that are not supported by actual data with varying storm behaviors occurring over the course of the year. throughout the century. This result is particularly remarkable because geostationary active environmental satellites (GOES) did not begin operating until the mid-1970s, which greatly increased scientists’ ability to detect detect and track global hurricanes and tropical cyclones.

Add Scientific assessment of ACE . data presented below clearly demonstrate that there has been no recent increase in tropical cyclones, hurricanes or hurricanes caused by climate change with these results demonstrating that natural climate behavior is driving climate change. this resulting model.

The data presented here has always been masked by political climate alarm propagandists as shown by the New York Times hurricane propaganda chart presented earlier.

NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) concludes next on climate change and hurricanes.

“In summary, it is too early to conclude with high confidence that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities have had a detectable impact on storm activity in the basin. Atlantic Ocean, although the increase in greenhouse gases is closely related to global warming… Human activities may have caused consequences other than changes in tropical cyclone activity undetectable due to the small magnitude of these changes compared with the estimated natural variability or due to limitations in observations.”

Of course, the New York Times and other climate alarmists will continue to promote the flawed and scientifically unsupported Democratic Party politics of climate alarmism.