Copa América 2024 Final: Argentina-Colombia Predictions

It’s here! After a grueling, entertaining and dramatic month, Sunday night will see the Copa America 2024 final, as the defending champions Argentina host Colombia in Miami. Which team will reign supreme? Argentina and Lionel Messi cruise to victory, or can Colombia shock them? (Game Odds, by ESPNBETtowards Argentina: they are rated -165 compared to Colombia’s +125.)

If Colombia is to win, which players need to have a statement game? And what will Messi do at Hard Rock Stadium? ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle, Lizzy Becherano and Tim Vickery offer their predictions and expectations for Sunday’s final.

1. Who will win and why Argentina?

Doctor: I don’t think Argentina will win on Sunday! It’s clear that Colombia were pushed to their physical limits before UruguayBut coach Nestor Lorenzo also maximized substitutions during the match. James Rodriguez stopped after 62 minutes. Richard Rios was carried off the pitch on a stretcher after 61 minutes but was later seen dancing, proving that winning does wonders for a player’s resilience.

Yes, Argentina are formidable, but as the saying goes, steel sharpens steel, and Colombia will have gained huge confidence after their win over Uruguay. However, Argentina still don’t look like they need to shift into third gear. Ecuador has caused fear. I think Colombia just overshadows this.

Becherano: I really think Colombia will be the first team to beat Argentina in this tournament. The Albiceleste through the group stage, not really being tested until the quarter-final against Ecuador. Lionel Scaloni’s side looked uncomfortable against an aggressive opponent, struggling to contain a ferocious attack.

Argentina boast an incredibly talented group of players, but the 2024 Copa America has yet to see a team-wide, trademark performance. Colombia, on the other hand, have seen each player step up at different points in the tournament to stun their toughest opponents. Rodriguez is showing form from the 2014 World Cup while Luis Diaz continued to win on the left flank. If Lorenzo’s team can use their momentum, Argentina will have difficulty overcoming Colombia’s strength and physicality.

Vickery: The concern from Colombia’s perspective is how much energy they’ve lost playing such a long semi-final with 10 men, and that applies more to Diaz than anyone else. It’s obviously a big question as they’re coming into Miami with less than a day’s rest, but if they can recharge, I think Colombia have the potential to do so. The discipline of their midfield trio will help keep Argentina at bay, and the fitness of their forwards will be a problem, as will their strength from set-pieces.

Time and again in the knockout stages, Argentina’s defense has collapsed — and it could cost them. Qatar against FranceNetherlands and Australia and here against Ecuador — and even Canada had two golden chances in the last five minutes. One day this will cost Argentina, and that day could be Sunday.

2. Which version of Messi will we see and what do you expect from him?

Doctor: Messi’s usual sharp finishing has been lacking this tournament, with his goal against Canada being one of those wonderful two-foot putts. But for Colombia, the scary thing about that goal is that it might have given Messi a little more confidence to recalibrate his shooting accuracy.

The rest is Messi getting into good positions to score. Yes, I realise it’s the old adage of only worrying when he doesn’t have a chance, but you have to think that eventually if that trend continues those shots will start to find the target. I hope they do. Then the Colombian goalkeeper will do it Camilo Vargas Do everything possible to stop a legend.

Becherano: Messi’s quality will continue to be evident on Sunday thanks to his unique understanding of the game, spatial awareness and ability to draw defenders in. Through age and injury, Messi has learned to adapt his style of play to suit the current situation. The Argentine is capable of much more than we have seen in this tournament, but Colombia should expect him to step up.

Argentina’s ability to exploit emotions when looking for momentum cannot be understated, and Messi is no exception. With criticism of his recent performances and his final Copa America on his mind, the No. 10 will be out in full force with his newly-refined power. He may not be faster than his defensive opponents, but he only needs a minute to inspire the creation and build-up to what could be a deadly goal.

Vickery: We are seeing the twilight of the god. What he does may still be great, but he does less than what he did in Qatar. Some were shocked when Scaloni left the top scorer position Lautaro Martinez was left out of the squad in the semi-finals, but this is easily explained, and it is also a recognition from the coach that Messi is not far from the finish line at this level.

Someone has to run fast. Julian Alvarez can do that and also create an extra player in midfield when Argentina don’t have the ball. This is difficult for Lautaro, but it is a consequence of Messi gradually losing the battle against time. It will be interesting to see how Argentina find a way to include him against an organised and physically strong Colombia side.

3. Which Colombian player needs to have a good game if they are to beat Argentina?

Doctor: James Rodriguez is a strong candidate, especially given how dangerous he has been from set pieces, although that won’t be enough to stop Argentina from playing. They will need to make sure they don’t concede set pieces in dangerous positions.

The defensive side of the ball will be equally important. The centre-back pairing of Carlos Cuesta And Davinson Sanchez will need to be at their best to stop Messi and Julian Alvarez if Colombia are to win.

Becherano: All eyes will be on Rodriguez, of course, and Lionel Scaloni should plan accordingly, but Camilo Vargas will face his biggest test on Sunday. If he can keep a clean sheet while Argentina have possession, then Rodriguez, Luis Diaz and John Cordoba can play confidently without the burden of having to score a late equalizer.

Vickery: Obviously Rodriguez, because of the way he acts as a pass to Diaz, and perhaps most importantly because of his excellent set-piece ability.

4. Okay, now it’s time to make your predictions! Let us know the final score and how the match went!

Doctor: I’ll pick Colombia 2-0, following a similar scenario to the Uruguay game (minus the red card). A set piece from Rodriguez would have put Cafe took the lead, with Cordoba winning in the last minute.

Becherano: I hate to say it, but Colombia won 2-1. It’s not like Argentina wouldn’t score after their Copa America journey, but Colombia would dominate.

Vickery: Always make your predictions after the event! But if pressed, I’d go for Colombia 2-1, maybe a late surge. One is a header from a set piece, the other is Diaz on the counter-attack.