Britain’s ruling Conservative Party suffered a significant defeat in one constituency but avoided another when the results were announced early Friday in the constituency. three by-electionsan important test of the popularity of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
The small, centrist Liberal Democrats won one of the Conservatives’ safest seats in Somerton and Frome, south-west England, overturning a large Conservative majority, with the Liberal Democrats receiving 21,187 votes to 10,790 for the Conservatives.
But there is better news for Mr Sunak in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the north-west edge of London, where his party narrowly held out against the main opposition Labor Party in the district represented by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
A third contest, in Selby and Ainsty, in Yorkshire in the north of England, has yet to be decided.
For Mr. Sunak, the by-elections are a nervous foreshadowing of a general election he must call in January 2025. With Britain besieged by high inflation, a sluggish economy and widespread labor unrest, his Conservatives face the real threat of being overthrown for the first time in 14 years.
While Britain shares some of these economic hardships with other countries in the wake of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Conservatives have amplified the problems through policy missteps and political instability that culminated in the short, turbulent tenure of Mr Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss.
She proposes far-reaching but unfunded tax cuts financial market alarm and caused her own downfall after 44 days in office. Mr Sunak set aside Ms Truss’ trickle-down agenda and restored Britain’s financial stability. But her legacy is a cup of poison for Mr Sunak and his Tory compatriots with the majority of the British electorate.
Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: “The Liz Truss incident has really dented their reputation for economic prowess and that will be very difficult to get back. “It will be very difficult.”
The Labor Party’s lead in opinion polls is so convincing that some analysts have predicted that Mr Sunak would become the first prime minister to lose three by-elections in one day since 1968.
But the Conservative Party’s narrow victories in Uxbridge and South Ruislip blocked that prospect. There, when all the votes were counted, the final total was 13,965 to Steve Tuckwell, of the Conservative Party, and 13,470 to Danny Beales of Labour.
By-elections take place when a seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant between general elections. This time around, the contests are also a reminder of the toxic legacy of another of Mr. Sunak’s predecessors, Mr. Johnson.
Mr Johnson resigns in the boroughs of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on London’s western edge, after lawmakers ruled he had lied to Parliament about lockdown parties being held in Downing Street during the pandemic.
Voters in Selby and Ainsty in the north of England are choosing to replace one of Mr Johnson’s closest allies, Nigel Adams, who resigned after not being given a seat in the House of Commons as he had hoped.
A third contest took place in Somerton and Frome, a rural district in south-west England, where another Conservative lawmaker, David Warburton, gave up his seat after admitting he had used cocaine.
Robert Hayward, pollster and Conservative member of the House of Lords, said: “This is perhaps the end of a chapter in the story of Boris Johnson’s impact on British politics. But he added, “Whether that’s the end of the whole book is another matter.”
Because the vote took place in very different parts of Britain, it provides an unusual snapshot of public opinion ahead of the general election. It also captures some of the trends that have unfolded in British politics since the last general election in 2019, when Mr Johnson’s Conservative Party won an overwhelming victory.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip are the kind of seats Labor needs to win to prove it is credibly in power. Mr Johnson’s political troubles have weakened the Conservative Party, but their fortunes have survived thanks to public anger at London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, a Labor member, over plans to extend a costly ultra-low emission zone across all London boroughs, including Uxbridge.
In Selby and Ainsty, a Tory stronghold, Labor hopes to show it has regained the confidence of voters in northern and central England – areas the party once dominated but lost to the Conservatives in the 2019 election.
The vote in Somerton and Frome is a test of the Conservative Party’s fortunes in the heartlands of southern England, known as the “green wall” – in the party’s campaign colors. It has come under pressure in the region from a resurgence of the smaller, centrist Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats have benefited from a number of voters, who are opposed to the Conservatives, strategically voting for whoever seems best suited to defeat the Conservative candidate.
Recent elections in the UK have been about a major political reorganization, with candidates emphasizing cultural values and issues. But analysts say these by-elections have been dominated by a cost-of-living crisis – kitchen table concerns that have hurt the Conservative Party after more than a decade in power.
