MOSCOW – Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken’s two-day visit to Central Asia comes as the region’s leaders, particularly in Kazakhstan, are increasingly – if careful – asserting themselves in relation to their respective owners. their former Soviet counterpart, Moscow.
About three decades ago, after 70 years of Soviet rule, the countries of Central Asia declared their independence during the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since then, Kazakhstan has pursued a “multi-vector” policy, dividing its focus between its powerful immediate neighbors, China to the south and Russia to the north and the United States. But Moscow’s all-out invasion of Ukraine complicates the calculation.
Central Asian nations are now trying to wire it up, neither condemning nor endorsing the invasion at the United Nations, where all five abstained. Resolution General Assembly last week called on Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine and stop the war.
The war has dramatically changed their security calculus, said Arkady Dubnov, an expert on the region. Like Ukraine, Kazakhstan borders Russia and has a large ethnic Russian population – like those the Kremlin has vowed to protect to justify its all-out invasion of Ukraine.
“Kazakhstan cannot but consider the case of Russia’s policy towards Ukraine, which, if successful, could threaten Kazakhstan as well,” Dubnov said.
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev refused to recognize the independence of two pro-Russian breakaway republics in Ukraine’s Donbas region before Moscow announced their annexation last fall, along with two other regions. of Ukraine.
And the Kazakh Foreign Ministry pushed back on loud complaints from Moscow about a so-called “invincible yurt” tent erected by the Kazakh community in the war-torn Ukrainian city of Bucha. Kazakh diplomats defend the yurt, a traditional home, funded by private companies, which provides civilians with traditional Kazakh food and tea as well as a means to charge electronic devices their.
For Washington, Mr. Blinken’s visit is an important way to cement alliances in what Russia sees as its historic sphere of influence. Tokayev, that is also a message to your domestic audience.
Tokayev became president of Kazakhstan – the ninth largest country in the world by land area – in 2019 after leaving a phased term. autocratic predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, after 28 years in power. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for mid-March.
“We should bear in mind that the general public mood, so to speak, the general temperature of public sentiment in Kazakhstan regarding events in Ukraine, does not stand at all,” said regional expert Mr. Dubnov. towards Moscow”. citing “a significant number of young Kazakhs do not support, shun or even condemn,” the war.
Emil Joroev, a researcher at Crossroads Central Asia, a research group in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which shares borders with China and Kazakhstan, said President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has worked hard. in recent months to cement Moscow’s influence in Central Asia, visiting each of the region’s five former Soviet republics at least once.
But Joroev added, this “gives Putin a feeling of despair” to show he still has friends, or at least not enemies, at a time when many countries, especially in Europe , treating him as a war criminal. “Putin has lost his magic,” Joroev said, “but in these countries he still has much greater leverage than the US.”
“Blinken’s visit,” Mr. Joroev said, “could help tilt the balance away from Russia but the State Department understands how far these countries can go and they will not come out tomorrow to condemn the war.”
Uzbekistan, where Blinken will visit on Wednesday, has a different set of priorities. The Muslim-majority country borders Afghanistan and wants to work with Washington to ensure that the threat of Islamic extremism does not spread.
Since Central Asian countries are well aware of their geography and economic ties, he said, the Kremlin’s wisest response to meetings with Mr. Blinken would be no reaction.
However, this political dialogue with the US is going on despite Moscow’s displeasure, Mr. Dubnov said. And this is also a sign that Central Asia is no longer so afraid of the shouting from Moscow. Why, when, did Russia become as weak as it is today as a result of the crisis stemming from military action in Ukraine?
February 28, 2023
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Due to an editing error, an earlier version of this article incorrectly described one of Kyrgyzstan’s borders. It shares a border with China, not Russia.
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