By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
I had originally planned to bet the $1 million Haskell Handicap (G1) at Monmouth Park for this week’s Unlocking Winners, but with the roster still in flux (main contenders Fierceness and Dornoch could be dropped), it’s hard to make a choice ahead of time.
Instead, we’ll look at the week’s other big race, the $500,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), as well as Monmouth’s other big one, the $500,000 Molly Pitcher (G3).
American Oaks (G1) Training Club at Saratoga
Only five mares will face the starter in the historic Coaching Club American Oaks, and the favorite to win the 1 1/8-mile contest is #3 Thorpedo Anna (1-2). The fast mare has dominated all three of her starts this year by a margin of daylight, taking the Fantasy (G2) by four lengths, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) by 4 3/4 lengths and the Acorn (G1) by 5 1/2 lengths.
I was particularly impressed by Thorpedo Anna’s performance on Acorn. She nudged champion two-year-old mare Just FYI through tough splits of :23.53, :46.75 and 1:10.24, then took over when Just FYI weakened to beat a strong group, and she did all this despite losing a shoe in the race.
Still, I see a potential weakness in Thorpedo Anna’s armour. Her biggest weapon is her speed – she can set or force strong fractions and still hang on in the final stretch. But Thorpedo Anna is the only clear-cut pace horse in the Coaching Club American Oaks field, and I’m concerned that rather than charging out and running her rivals into the ground, she’ll set a slow pace and make it easy for them to catch up.
A slow pace can bring out the power of #1 Candy (5-2), who won the Alcibiades (G1) and finished third by less than a length in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). Candied struggled in her three-year-old debut, finishing fourth in the Ashland (G1) after a five-month layoff. But she bounced back in her second start of the season, beating a capable group of older horses in the 1 1/16-mile Lady’s Secret S. at Monmouth Park.
In Lady’s Secret, Candied faced just three rivals and fell behind at times with sluggish times of :24.30 and :49.66. But she came up to challenge over six furlongs in 1:14.18 and finished strongly from there, earning an eye-catching 107 Brisnet Late Pace rating while pulling away to win by 4 1/2 lengths. The next two runners to finish, Honor D Lady and Saddle Up Jessie, returned to run 1-2 in the recent Delaware H. (G2) ahead of Wet Paint, winner of the 2023 Coaching Club American Oaks.
Candied’s Lady’s Secret win brought her a 99 Beyer Speed Figure, the same figure Thorpedo Anna achieved at Acorn. If Candied can maintain her slow pace at Saratoga, I believe she has a chance to overtake Thorpedo Anna in the closing stages and give trainer Todd Pletcher a record-extending ninth win at the Coaching Club American Oaks.
Molly Pitcher (G3) at Monmouth Park
I think an argument can be made that #6 Idioms (3-5) is vulnerable as a heavy favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Molly Pitcher. Last year’s champion older filly is coming off a loss as the favorite in the Ogden Phipps (G1) at Saratoga, so her form may have dropped a bit.
But I don’t see it that way. Idiomatic ran well under adverse conditions at Ogden Phipps. An imperfect break left her wide against the slow pace of 2023 Alabama (G1) winner Randomized, finishing second by a half-length to Idiomatic in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). The inside pacers may have had the advantage on the day at Ogden Phipps, but Idiomatic nearly overcame that obstacle, finishing fast (the last three furlongs in :36 4/5) to fall a step behind Randomized. Champion three-year-old mare and 2023 Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous finished 4 1/2 lengths clear in third.
Idiomatic started 2024 on a high note, beating Pretty Mischievous and the others by 3 3/4 lengths in the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs, marking her fourth Grade 1 win. Molly Pitcher has been a big underdog against Ogden Phipps, and I see no reason why Idiomatic can’t bounce back at low price. If you’re betting on multiple races on Haskell Day, I’d highly recommend Idiomatic.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like this weekend?
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J. Keeler Johnson (aka “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, bookmaker, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of horse racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever bred in America, but considers Zenyatta to be his favorite racehorse of all time.
