As China’s pressure on Taiwan increases, the US Special Envoy departs calling for steadfastness

Nearing the end of three years as the United States’ chief representative to Taiwan, Sandra Oudkirk has some parting advice: Avoid panicking over China’s aggressive language and moves, but don’t become paralyzed by the risks .

Ms. Oudkirk was Washington’s de facto ambassador to Taiwan during a time when the democratic island became the focus of tensions between Washington and Beijing. China claims that Taiwan is its territory and must accept reunification by force if leaders in Beijing decide it is necessary.

At times, the debate between Taiwanese and American politicians, officials and experts has also caused some tension, over which combination of tactics – which military purchases, reassuring words or firmness. Which decision toward Beijing, which step toward sister democracies—can best mitigate the risks of war.

Ms. Oudkirk, who will leave her post in Taipei early next month, said that Taiwan and its partners need to find a stable path, avoiding both hysteria and complacency.

“These are the questions we get all the time about how dangerous Taiwan is — you know, Taiwan is the most dangerous place in the world,” she said, referring to talk of the crisis or war is about to happen. “Sometimes the audio really doesn’t tell the whole truth.”

But she added of China: “When a government, a country, a leader tells you what they are thinking and tells you what they are planning, you should listen to what they say.” .

After decades of criticism from Beijing, many Taiwanese pay little attention to this issue. China’s military exercises and airspace incursions are increasing, but rarely cause public alarm. ONE majority of Taiwanese people also said they believed the United States would intervene if China actually threatened to invade.

But that belief is not popular among Taiwanese politicians and voters, some of whom are skeptical about America’s dedication and intentions.

The United States does commit in a law that helps Taiwan defend itself and gives it the right to send in US forces if China ever attempts an armed takeover. Some American commanders and experts thought an invasion was possible: A few years ago some quotes 2027 as a potential moment for Chinese military action. But Biden administration officials said that they see no firm deadline from China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

Even so, in the years before and during Ms. Oudkirk’s time as top US representative to Taiwan, China’s pressure campaign on the island about 100 miles off its coast continued to intensify. increase.

She was first sent to Taiwan as a consular officer back in 1992, as the island was emerging from decades of martial law, and China was much less wealthy and better armed. She later had posts in Dublin, Istanbul and Beijing.

Miss Oudkirk actually became an ambassador in Taiwan in mid-2021. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine followed a few months later, leaving Taiwan increasingly worried about a similar Chinese gamble of an armed takeover. In August 2022, the Chinese military organized The most extensive exercise Ever around Taiwan, where? Beijing said it was retaliation after Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House, visited Taipei.

This year’s Taiwan presidential election resulted in a victory for Lai Ching-te, who is deeply disliked by Beijing, prompting another round of Chinese military exercises near the island and renewed accusations. fire from Beijing after he took office in May. Mr. Lai said at the time that he wanted to maintain Taiwan’s status quo – self-governing but not yet officially declaring independence. Chinese officials have reacted with fierce public skepticism.

Lieutenant General He Lei, former Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, said in a recent interview while visiting Singapore for a meeting: “His May 20 speech from start to finish was a blatant declaration of Taiwanese independence.” “Going further and deeper down Taiwan’s path to independence now will only bring greater dangers across the Taiwan Strait.”

To counter China’s warnings and growing power, Taiwan and Washington have increased cooperation, and the US representative office on the hillside northeast of Taipei is a concrete and steely symbol of these that relationship.

Its official name is the American Institute in Taiwan, which may make it more of a language school than a diplomatic agency. The vague name is a concession to the fact that Washington ended formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan when American recognition switched to Beijing in 1979.

The American Institute office was for many years a crowded office in downtown Taipei, maintaining a diminished official presence. The operation has gone to great lengths to remain discreet and has not regularly flown the American flag for decades.

Things are different now. The new institute complex, built in 2019, is a large structure and has up to 585 employees, up from 488 in 2019, according to the institute’s press office. The American flag is now a steady presence above the building.

“These are examples of how the US-Taiwan relationship has progressed,” Brent Christensen, director of the American Institute in Taiwan before Ms. Oudkirk, said in an interview. He is currently teaching at Brigham Young University.

“A lot of it is guided by precedent,” Mr. Christensen said. “But the Trump administration doesn’t care much about precedent, so this is a useful moment to get past some of the restrictions we’ve imposed on ourselves.”

Ms. Oudkirk said that during her three years as director, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a particular turning point for Taiwan and for strengthening ties with the United States.

“Ukraine’s ability to withstand a Russian invasion has clearly been evident in the news here, especially in 2022,” she said. “It really attracted great public attention and debate about ‘What does this mean for Taiwan?’”

Taiwan’s previous president, Tsai Ing-wen, in 2022 extended military service for men to one year, up from one year. four months. Taiwan has also ordered more mobile missiles and other flexible weapons that could deter a Chinese attack.

“The level of strategic integration between Taiwan and the US is the highest since they severed their relationship,” said Kuo Yu-jen, a political science professor at National Sun Yat-sen University in southern Taiwan. diplomatic relations” in 1979.

Not all Taiwanese welcomed the tight hug. Ms. Oudkirk’s years as representative also coincided with an innovative trend that locals call “yi-mei-lun,” skepticism about America, especially among voters who believe Taiwan and Washington have unnecessarily antagonized Beijing.

Ms. Oudkirk said, part of the reason the US does not trust the intention or ability to support Taiwan reflects China’s information activities to increase suspicion, but part of it reflects the ups and downs. Normal disagreement in a democracy.

She gets a lot of questions about whether the upcoming US election could lead to a shift in support among Americans. She remains diplomatic on that front.

“In the United States, unlike most other issues of foreign policy or domestic policy, there is broad-based bipartisan consensus,” she told reporters at her farewell news conference Friday. on policy towards Taiwan”. “So I don’t think an election will necessarily change that.”