African National Congress (ANC) election staff set up a tent decorated with partisan paraphernalia outside a polling station in Umlazi on May 29, during the general election in South Africa.
Aunt Zinyange/AFP via Getty Images
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Aunt Zinyange/AFP via Getty Images
JOHANNESBURG – South African ruling African National Congress the party lost its outright majority for the first time in a major blow to the party once led by Nelson Mandela. The ANC has dominated South African politics since winning the first post-apartheid election 30 years ago.
The ANC had been preparing for a disappointing result, predicted by pre-election polls on Wednesday, but final result even more alert. It won 40 percent of the votes, falling from 57% in 2019.
Tessa Dooms, director at Rivonia Circle, a think tank in South Africa, said this was the historic result of the ANC’s three-decade decline in power. “The South African election was an important watershed moment that fundamentally changed politics,” she said.
According to the constitution, the party with the largest number of votes has two weeks from the confirmation of the results to form a new government. The ANC will now have to form a coalition government with one or more opposition parties for the first time to maintain power.
Women with children walk past election posters in Tembisa, east of Johannesburg, South Africa in 2024.
Themba Hadebe/AP
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Themba Hadebe/AP
Fueling the party’s waning support is a bleak reality for millions.
South Africa remains one of the countries unequal countries in the worldwith 32% unemployed, along with rising crime levels. Immense frustration with water And electricity shortage as well as corruption have led to growing criticism of the ANC government.
For many, the initial progress after liberation from white minority rule was not sustained. Despite significant achievements in Africa’s most industrialized nation, inequalities inherited from apartheid persist and, over the past decade, have even worsened. The party’s vote share has fallen by several percentage points in every election since 2004 – exacerbated by the generational divide, with young voters born after apartheidso-called “born liberals”, are less likely to vote for the ANC.
“On the one hand, we have overcome apartheid as a structural force,” Dooms said, “On the other hand, we really haven’t changed many of the dynamics. We inherited inequality in one form and we have doubled down on inequality in South Africa and another form in the future and that has hurt us.”
But in this election, the gradual decline in ANC support over the past 20 years has become more severe, Dooms said. “In some ways, the ANC has exploded in the form of its former president, Jacob Zuma. The rise of MK is undoubtedly the biggest story of this election.”
The fall and rise of Zuma
The new party of the controversial and convicted former ANC leader, uMkhonto weSizwe party, or MK, is the story of the election. MK is named after the ANC’s disbanded military group and was registered just six months ago. But in just a short time, the party far exceeded expectations. The party is supported by many former ANC supporters and a base of largely poor and ethnic Zulu South Africans who have followed Zuma’s lead and left the ANC. It is currently the third largest party in South Africa, with almost 15%.
It marked the dramatic rise and fall of the 82-year-old leader. While a conviction prevented him from being elected to parliamentAs leader of MK, he could now become a key player in the negotiations to form a new coalition government and could use his power to try avoid further sentencing.
Zuma is was forced to resign as president in 2018, and was convicted in 2021 for failing to appear at the corruption trial against him. He is also due try again next year for corruption in an alleged arms deal in 1999.
Former ANC and South African president Jacob Zuma waves to supporters after voting in Nkandla, Kwazulu Natal, South Africa, Wednesday, May 29, 2024 in the general election.
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Emilio Morenatti/AP
The populist leader has accused his successor, President Cyril Ramaphosa, of being behind his legal troubles. Now Zuma has inflicted a heavy defeat on his rival, who is likely to face pressure to resign from some in his party.
Zuma’s daughter and MK member Duduzile Sambudla told NPR, “MK is not willing to enter into a coalition with Ramaphosa’s ANC,” she said, implying that a coalition would be possible without Ramaphosa.
MK’s success against the ANC was most significant in South Africa’s second most populous province, KwaZulu Natal (KZN). The party won nearly 46% of the vote, compared to nearly 18% for the ANC in a landslide result.
Liberation icon Nelson Mandela voted for the first time in Ohlange High Schoolin Durban, KZN, in 1994, when he became president. Thirty years later, many voters in the same polling station share the same feelings: disappointment with the state of the country and a desire for change.
Nqobile Khumalo, 24, arrived at the polling station shortly after polls opened at 7am on Wednesday and was voting for the first time. “We really hope that there will be change,” she said. Tracy Bongiwe Zondo, 39, went further. “I voted for ANC before but now I vote for MK because I need a change in our community,” she said.
President Ramaphosa’s future is currently an open question. He was the first ANC president to lose a majority in the party, who saw the biggest drop in vote share (17%) and voter turnout fell to 58%. ANC elections chief Nomvula Mokonyane told NPR Ramaphosa will not resign. “No one is going to resign,” she said. But Ramaphosa faces a major challenge to survive his second term, which, if he were to form a results-based government, could prove divisive.
South African President Cyril Ramaphos (center) speaks to reporters after voting on Wednesday, May 29, 2024, for the general election in Soweto, South Africa. South Africans go to vote in what is considered their country’s most important election in the past 30 years. It could take the fledgling democracy into uncharted territory.
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Jerome/AP Delay
A new era of coalition government
Professor David Everett at the Wits School of Management said the result forcing the ANC to partner with another party was a positive step for the country. “I think suddenly having the ANC in charge instead of having a majority after a majority would be a particularly good thing for South Africa,” he said.
Coalition governments have long existed at the local level in South Africa, but never at the federal level, and the formation of an ANC coalition government is now a big question.
The party may align with the official opposition Democratic Alliance, a center-right party, largely led and supported by South Africa’s white minority, won nearly 22%. “There are two factions within the ANC. The one led by President Ramaphosa is more concerned about the state of the economy and will most likely look towards the Democratic Alliance,” said Everett. But the move could alienate many in the ANC’s other factions, who see it as a red line.
The ANC could also align with MK, giving Zuma influence in government, or with the radical left. Party fights for economic freedom, led by another former ANC youth leader, Julius Malema. Some experts said the party came in fourth with 9% of the vote, also affected by greater than expected support for the MK party.
But a coalition with either or both parties, largely derived from the ANC, could prove unstable, given the divisions that drove the parties to break away in the first place. “To enter into an alliance with your arch-enemies the EFF and MK, you are asking for politics to dominate everything, because they are trying to destroy the ANC more and take it over,” said Everett. .
The ANC transformed from a beloved liberation movement into a political force that dominated South African politics. But their influence over South African politics is waning as the country struggles to contain divisions and tackle the country’s major challenges.
South African politics may have just changed forever, from the days of one-party rule. In the country’s system of proportional representation, more independent parties and candidates than ever before are forming and offering an alternative – a reality that the ANC must now face.
