For decades, Iran’s leaders could point to high voter turnout in their elections as evidence of the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic’s political system. But like Voter turnout has plummeted in recent yearselection which they will now be forced to hold after the election death of President Ebrahim Raisi will force the political establishment to make a decision it does not want to make.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, has two options, each with risks.
He can ensure that the presidential election, which the Constitution requires to take place within 50 days of Mr. Raisi’s death, is open to everyone, from hardliners to reformist. But that risks a competitive election that could take the country in a direction he doesn’t want.
Or he can repeat his strategy recent election, and suppress not only reformist opponents but also loyal, moderate opposition figures. That choice could leave him facing the embarrassment of an even lower voter turnout, a move that could be interpreted as a sharp rebuke to the increasingly authoritarian state. your.
Voter turnout in Iran has been on a downward trend over the past few years. In 2016, more than 60% of voters nationwide participated in the parliamentary election. By 2020, this number is 42%. Officials swore that results this March would have been higher – instead it was just under 41%.
Just a week before Mr. Raisi’s death, the last round of parliamentary elections in Tehran garnered just 8% of the potential vote – a staggering figure in a country where Mr. Khamenei once mocked Western democracies. West because the voter turnout rate is from 30% to 40%.
“Khamenei was given a golden opportunity to easily, in a face-saving way, allow everyone to participate in the process,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iranian political analyst and editor of Amwaj. political process – if he chooses to seize this opportunity.” an independent news media agency. “Unfortunately, what has happened over the past few years suggests he will not follow that path.”
Iran is a theocracy with a parallel system of governance in which elected bodies are overseen by appointed councils. Key state policies on nuclear, military and foreign affairs are decided by Ayatollah Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council, while the Revolutionary Guards are increasing their influence over the economy. economic and political.
The president’s role is more limited to economic matters and domestic policy, but he is still an influential position.
Elections also remain an important test of public sentiment. Low voter turnout in recent years is seen as a clear sign of a sour mood towards the clergy and a political establishment that is becoming increasingly hardline and conservative.
“For the regime, this gap – the separation between state and society – is a serious problem.” “What they want is to contain conservative unity, but it’s hard to fill Raisi’s shoes.”
Mr. Raisi, a cleric who has worked for many years in the judiciary and has participated in some of the most brutal acts of repression in the country’s history, is a staunch loyalist to Mr. Khamenei and his worldview.
An ardent supporter of religious rule in Iran, Mr Raisi has long been seen as a potential successor to the supreme leader – despite, or perhaps because, he lacks the strong personality that can could pose a risk to Mr. Khamenei. Now, with no clear candidate to back, Khamenei could face infighting within his conservative faction.
“Raisi was a yes man, and his unimpressiveness was the problem,” said Arash Azizi, a historian who specializes in Iran and teaches at Clemson University in South Carolina. “The political base includes many people with serious political and financial interests. There will be a struggle for power.”
The candidates allowed to run will be those who represent the path the supreme leader wants to take.
Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, a pragmatic technocrat who is president of the National Assembly and one of the country’s perennial presidential candidates, may try to run. But Mr. Azizi said his performance in the National Assembly in recent years has been poorly evaluated. Congress has done little to help resolve Iran’s economic crisis, and Mr. Ghalibaf, despite calling himself an advocate for Iran’s poor, drew national outrage in 2022 for having It was reported that his family went on a shopping spree in Turkey.
Another likely candidate is Saeed Jalili, a Revolutionary Guard veteran who became a nuclear negotiator and was considered a hard-line loyalist to Mr. Khamenei. Mr. Azizi said his candidacy would not bode well for access to the West.
In all recent elections in Iran, Khamenei has shown himself willing to eliminate any reformist or even moderate candidate seen as loyal opposition. The results were clear: In 2021, Mr. Raisi won with the lowest turnout ever in a presidential election, at 48%. Opposite, more than 70% of Iran’s 56 million eligible voters voted when President Hassan Rouhani was elected in 2017.
And so far, there is no sign that Iran’s political establishment will reverse course.
“It is a system that is moving away from its republican roots and becoming more authoritarian,” Ms. Vakil said, adding of Mr. Khamenei: “As long as he is comfortable with repressive control and elites maintain their unity, do not expect change.”
Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that what is most likely to prevent Khamenei from widening the race is his leadership’s ability to ensure a smooth transition. and stabilize when a new supreme leader is chosen. Mr. Khamenei is 85 years old and in poor health.
However, Mr. Khamenei also has equally compelling reasons to consider opening the door to moderates. Under Mr. Raisi, the country has faced a series of dramatic upheavals, with the economy collapsing and unemployment skyrocketing. And the violent suppression of anti-government protests that erupted in 2021 after the death of a young woman accused of wearing a headscarf incorrectly left large segments of the population disillusioned.
Although it seems highly unlikely that Mr. Khamenei will change course, “the system in Iran has the ability to surprise itself,” Ms. Geranmayeh said.
Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, despite his reputation as a hardliner, surprised the political world with his populist personality.
And Mr. Rouhani, a moderate within the system, surprised many with his push to open the economy to the West, and he succeeded in reaching a nuclear deal before it was overruled by Donald J. Trump, president of the United States at the time, defeated.
However, there is no clear moderate in the race, and even if one were, there is no certainty how the public would react.
“The big issue is whether people will vote or not, because there is such strong disillusionment,” Ms. Geranmayeh said.
And in a country where leaders came to power after a popular revolution – and where anti-government protests have forced the government to unleash a violent repression to stop them – the risk is long. long is clear, said Mr. Shabani, the politician. analyst.
“If people no longer believe in change through the ballot box, there is only one other option,” he said.
