Via Linnea Lueken
Time The magazine recently published an article titled “Is climate change responsible for deadly floods in Europe?” which, while providing some balance, still asserts that recent flooding in Poland and other parts of Europe reflects a pattern of worsening caused by climate change. This is false. There is no indication in the data that a “pattern” of increasing severity or frequency of flooding exists.
Time admitted that it was “difficult to draw a clear link between the event and climate change”, but then said that “experts say the most severe flooding to hit the region in at least two decades is part of a broader pattern of extreme weather events”.
Afterward, Time quoting a professor from the University of Bristol, who recommends causal studies to determine whether the floods were caused by climate change:
“It’s really hard to link a single event to the impact of climate change,” said Paul Bates, a professor of hydrology at the University of Bristol and an expert in flood science. Bates said that to definitively prove whether climate change contributed to the flooding in Europe, researchers would need to conduct an attribution study, which would take at least several weeks. “Every time we do an attribution study, we tend to find that the events we see have been exacerbated by climate change, and I’m pretty sure that’s going to be the case here, but we don’t know for sure yet,” Bates said.
It takes weeks to get a peer-reviewed study out, which is really fast.
EQUAL Climate realism previously indicated many timesAttribution studies are widely believed by the media and scientists, and are often used more as propaganda than science. Attribution studies compare counterfactual, unverified models of the Earth’s climate and emissions, presuming that any differences between the models are due to human-caused carbon dioxide emissions. Neither model represents the world as it actually is, and modelers draw conclusions before they reach them, using the models only to confirm their pre-existing beliefs. As a result, the models never explore anything beyond the human influence on weather events, and almost always suggest that human activities likely contributed to each event studied.
While it is true that warmer air holds more water, that does not translate directly into increased rainfall. Additionally, warming is not uniform even within a country’s borders, with some places (like cities) experiencing more warming than rural areas, and some places may even experience cooling trends. Average global warming does not cause area storm.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Sessionth The assessment report shows that there is no sign yet of heavy rainfall and flooding due to heavy rain (lightning or heavy rain). And only in the most extreme conditions, unrealistic scenario The IPCC speculates with medium confidence that climate change may impact flooding after 2050. (See figure below)
Figure 1 – Table 12.12 | on Page 90 – Chapter 12 of the United Nations IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Emergence of Climate Impacts (CID)
The flooding in Europe discussed in the article is not unprecedented. The Danube River, which has carried much of Europe’s flooding this year, had an even worse flood in 1997Similar floods have devastated Budapest In 1838, Vienna was always fought the Danube River, and has many other ancient historical sites. file of the major floods in history in this area.
Cities have invested in Flood management did better in the recent event than in the non-events – this would be true regardless of whether climate change was a factor in the flood trend. Overall, TimeThe post is not bad, it is careful not to make any overly definitive claims when it comes to the link to climate. However, it would be wrong to assume that there is a current pattern of worsening extreme weather like floods due to climate change when the available data shows no trend change.
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