ANAHEIM, Calif. — Linger behind every Valdez Frame gems, every step towards the star for Hunter Brown and every steady win from Yusei Kikuchi, Ronel Blanco And Spencer Arrighettiis a question that revolves around the sixth and currently most unstable member of Houston’s stable, a future Hall of Fame player looking to find his way back.
As if Astronomy on track to win its fourth straight division title and eighth straight postseason, how, if at all, will Justin Verlander match their choices in October?
That question still needs no answer, even as Valdez and Brown have established themselves as the team’s top pairing, as Kikuchi has stabilized a previously changing lineup, and as Blanco and Arrighetti have emerged as the next-best starting options for the current postseason.
The kind of form that will one day earn a Cooperstown call has eluded Verlander since returning from more than two months on the injured list. There’s little chance the three-time Cy Young Award winner will prove his worth in earning a postseason roster spot for reasons beyond pedigree and reputation. But for now, with 11 regular-season games left on the schedule, the Astros’ coaching staff is expressing optimism that the 41-year-old will do the right thing while acknowledging the harsh realities of the schedule.
“We don’t have many games left,” coach Joe Espada said before Verlander’s final game Saturday in Anaheim, “and every time we pitch, it has a big impact.”
Houston’s five-game lead over the Mariners will give the club time to make a decision, potentially giving Verlander two more chances to look more like the pitcher who had a 3.95 ERA before his neck injury and less like the version who has an 8.34 ERA in five games since returning from the IL. That number was even higher before Saturday.
After three innings, eight runs scored in which he hit two home runs and did not record a strikeout against the Diamondbacks, Verlander and his manager described the veteran pitcher’s most recent outing—a five-inning, two-run performance against the last-place Angels in Anaheim—as a “step in the right direction,” though it failed to make much of a difference in the team’s rotation.
Opponents are batting .320 against Verlander since his return from injury. Without the ability to consistently hit curveballs for home runs, hitters can enjoy his fastball. On Saturday, Espada expects to see more quick drives and more off-balance, uncomfortable and less predictable strikes in his streak. The improvements have been obvious, but not dramatic.
The pitching is still “hard,” Verlander admitted. He missed two batters and caused just nine hits in his 89 pitches. He didn’t have his first hit until pitch No. 16, by which point the Angels were on the board. Verlander needed 27 pitches to get out of the first inning and lamented that he still couldn’t get his fastball to the batter or chase down his secondary.
He hasn’t been hit hard this year, but his 18.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, his 7.5% walk rate is the highest since 2017, his run rate is down more than 5% from last season, and he hasn’t gone more than five innings in an outing since May. In his first three starts in September, he had more walks (seven) than strikeouts (five).
If the Astros limped into the postseason with the same lineup that averaged 19th in ERA in the first half of the season, they could just live with whatever Verlander had to offer. But the team has changed since then.
Despite Verlander’s struggles, Astros starters rank second in ERA in the major leagues since the offseason. The addition of Kikuchi and the improvement of Houston’s lineup have played a major role in taking the team from the abyss back to championship contender.
Start with Valdez, who leads all qualified MLB starters with a 1.33 ERA since the start of August and was just one start shy of a no-hitter last month, but the quality has been spot on. Blanco completed a no-hitter to begin his breakout campaign and ranks second in the American League in ERA. The Astros have won all eight of Kikuchi’s starts since acquiring him from the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, which is around the time Arrighetti began throwing more curveballs and saw his strikeout rate skyrocket. The 2021 sixth-round pick earned AL Rookie of the Month honors in August after striking out 47 batters in 32.1 innings, including three different starts with at least 11 strikeouts.
But most remarkable is what Brown has achieved.
The Detroit native, who grew up watching Verlander and modeled his mechanics after the former Tigers star, leads the AL with a 2.32 ERA since early June. It’s a big improvement from Brown in mid-April, when he was fighting to hold onto a spot in the rotation after allowing 11 runs and recording two strikeouts in his third start of the year.
“After you get knocked out in the first inning with the worst start in major league history, you can look in the mirror and say, ‘Okay, let’s get this over with,'” Brown said. “I wouldn’t say I lost all my confidence, but I thought, ‘Okay, I don’t want to do that again.'”
There are a few remedies. He tries not to think beyond the next pitch, and he reminds himself of former coach Dusty Baker’s words: “Man, you’re one start away from setting a record.” Espada also noticed that Brown started to do better when he wasn’t worrying about the little things, whether it was a bad play behind him or a foul shot that lit up when it found the grass, than he had before.
But most of all, what changed Brown’s season was the change in arsenal.
After throwing a two-seamer at Wayne State University, the 2019 fifth-round pick put the pitch away early in his professional career. At the time, Brown said there was more emphasis on “good, jumpy four-seamers” and “powerful curveballs.” He threw mostly four-seamers, cutters and curveballs when he reached the majors two years ago, but every pitch he threw was unhittable by right-handed hitters, who batted .498 against him last season. The 26-year-old needed to find something that could get into their hands.
Before his May 5 start against the Mariners, Brown brought back the two-seam pitch. He had a 9.78 ERA in six starts before the change and a 2.55 ERA in 24 appearances (23 starts) since. He now throws the two-seam to right-handers—who batted just .375 against him—more than any other pitch. His hard-hit rate has dropped from 44.4 percent last year to 30.5 percent in 2024, one of the best in the sport.
“Really, if you look at it, right-handed people still hit pretty high on average, but the damage I take is much less,” Brown said. “So I think the trade-off is definitely good.”
If the season ended today, the Astros would be the third seed in the AL and host the playoffs. If that continues for the next few weeks, they’ll want to set up their rotation by late September so Valdez and Brown are ready for those games in early October. Kikuchi could be next.
Blanco’s performance this year makes him a worthy third or fourth starter in the playoffs, but he also brings experience in the bullpen and has thrown more than triple the number of innings he did last year. The Astros’ pitching coaches have been talking to him after every start and are managing his work between outings. Eleven days ago, they gave him a brief break by throwing him out of the bullpen. He scattered five hits in two scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks, then took a week off before beating the Angels in six innings last Sunday.
Verlander, meanwhile, has started 561 of his 562 career appearances between the regular season and postseason. His only save came in Game 4 of the 2017 American League Championship Series, when he popped up four days after starting Game 1 to help the bullpen cover 2.2 innings before returning to his usual role. Last year, he posted a 2.95 ERA in three playoff starts, a performance the Astros will look to replicate if he can replicate that form.
“I still think JV will turn things around and start playing to their potential,” Espada said. “But with Valdez, Brown, Kikuchi and Blanco, I think we can stretch it as far as we can.”
As the days on the calendar tick away, a difficult decision arises.
But a cycle that was once exhausted is gone Cristian Javier, JP France, Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia And Jose Urquidy as the season suddenly became so deep that it could be considered a strength in October, a team capable of advancing to the World Series regardless of what choice they made with the team leading all-time in postseason wins, strikeouts, and strikeouts.
“I fully expect Justin to be a part of that,” pitching coach Bill Murphy said before Verlander’s most recent start. “He’s a big piece. Again, he’s one of the best pitchers in the history of baseball. But we can go toe-to-toe with anybody pitching.”
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the LA Dodgers, LA Clippers, and Dallas Cowboys. A graduate of LSU, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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