The President’s Return to Keeneland?

Based on sales of the first three books at the Keeneland September 2024 Yearling Auction, it appears the auction is well positioned to buck the recent trend of declining total sales in years when we elect a President.

However, while our industry’s focus is on the first two days of November — the days of the Breeders’ Cup World Championship — based on the constant automated messages I receive from Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, it seems some others are more interested in the election scheduled for the first Tuesday of November.

As all of these dates come closer, the Keeneland September sale has already seen a 4.8% increase in sales across its first three books compared to its 2023 auctions. That means this sale is poised to be the first in five presidential election years—since 2004—to see an increase in sales in that year. We’re getting close to a time when we can breathe a sigh of relief.

Okay, okay, I don’t really believe that one number has much, or anything, to do with the other. Before the 2016 election, I looked at sales numbers and the only thing that caught my attention was that the median price had increased in four of the previous five elections. I speculated that maybe that was a sign of optimism in election years?

But in 2016, the average and total will fall, just like in the COVID year of 2020. That would make the totals in all four previous elections fall. That’s optimistic relative to presidential election years.

However, if there were any concerns about the current negative sales trend in election years, it looks like 2024 will put those concerns to rest. In the industry, we’ll take it.

As for who will win? Only a rumor doctor would see the numbers as meaningful. One would correctly note that in two of the last three years when the average sales were up, the Republican candidate won. But such an argument is belied by the statistical savvy of Pete Rose, who once pointed out something like this: If a baseball writer asks why I have only two homers in my last 12 at-bats, I know that I have at least three homers in my last 13 at-bats.

And so it goes: A Democrat who won the presidency two of the last four years has improved on average in Keeneland. Or you could look at it as a Republican who won the presidency two of the last four years has improved on average in Keeneland. It probably depends on who’s looking at the numbers.

So take all these numbers and trends as you will, but we don’t have a crystal ball other than some good feelings about the industry.

* 2024 figures apply to the first three books and those percentages are compared to the first three books of 2023; for all other years, the percentage changes compare the listed year’s sales to the previous year’s sales.