Driven out by protesters, a political dynasty plots a comeback

Cheerful young men splash in a pool with one ostentatiously soaping himself up as the crowd cheers. Sri Lankans dance in a lavish hallway as a symbol father Bands played festive tunes on trumpets and drums.

These scenes were broadcast around the world on July 13, 2022, hours after a mob stormed the presidential palace, forcing then-leader Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country.

It was their moment of triumph.

Hundreds of thousands of people from across Sri Lanka defied a nationwide curfew – braving tear gas and water cannons to march peacefully to the presidential palace, calling for Rajapaksa to resign.

For weeks he resisted calls to resign, although his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned as prime minister in an attempt to appease public anger.

Months of protests – known as “aragalaya” (struggle) in Sinhala – culminated in events in July 2022 that led to Mr Rajapaksa’s ignominious and hasty departure.

Just a few months ago, such events were unimaginable.

For years, the Rajapaksa clan – headed by Mahinda – has held tight control of Sri Lankan politics.

During his first term, Mahinda Rajapaksa presided over a bloody end Sri Lanka’s civil war against Tamil Tiger rebels. That victory helped him establish himself as the nation’s “savior” among the island’s Sinhalese majority – his most fervent supporters compared him to an emperor.

As he grew in power, so did his family. He appointed his younger brother, Gotabaya, as defense minister—a position he held ruthlessly, critics say. Two other brothers—Basil and Chamal—rose to become finance minister and speaker of parliament, respectively.

The family has appealed to a majority Sinhalese nationalist group, and has for years survived accusations of corruption, economic mismanagement, widespread human rights abuses and a crackdown on dissent.

That changed in 2022, when a series of policies triggered the country’s worst economic crisis ever.

Seventeen years after Mahinda first became president, crowds of Sri Lankans celebrated Rajapaksa’s downfall, sure family is complete.

But is it?

Two years later, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s son, Namal, entered the presidential election to be held on September 21.

“It was bad enough that people were driven away after the aragalaya [mass protests] “They are protesting against these votes,” Lakshan Sandaruwan, a university student who took part in the protest, told BBC Sinhala. “What is even worse is that some people may actually vote for a member of that family.”

Namal is not the only Rajapaksa returning to politics.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa himself – the man driven out of the country by angry protesters – did not stay long.

He returned just 50 days after his inglorious departure, first to Singapore and then Thailand. Upon his return, he enjoyed the perks of being a former president: a luxurious bungalow and security, all paid for by the government.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, an opposition politician, was appointed president for the remaining two years of Rajapaksa’s term. His family-led Sri Lanka Podu Jana Peramuna Party (SLPP), which holds a two-thirds majority in parliament, backed him.

Before he was unexpectedly promotedWickremesinghe, a six-term former prime minister, is the only MP from the United National Party following the party’s disastrous performance in the 2020 parliamentary elections.

He has focused on rebuilding the economy. But he has been accused of protecting the Rajapaksa family, allowing them to regroup while shielding them from prosecution — allegations he has denied.

Hours after Wickremesinghe became president, the army was deployed to disperse crowds at Galle Face in Colombo, which had been the epicentre of the protests.

Dozens of soldiers rushed to the scene, removing tents and other items belonging to protesters. In the months that followed, people who stormed the presidential palace were seen walking out with “souvenirs” — such as bedsheets or strange mementos to remember a historic day — was imprisoned.

“Ranil has protected the Rajapaksa family from the wrath of the people, ensured the continuity of the parliament, cabinet and SLPP-led government, and done nothing to stop corruption, even blocking the progress of investigations against Rajapaksa family members,” said political scientist Jayadeva Uyangoda.

“He also shielded them from international pressure to hold them accountable for serious human rights abuses and war-related charges.”

This has angered many Sri Lankans already suffering from a cost-of-living crisis and further hardship due to reforms aimed at reviving the stagnant economy.

Although there have been no power shortages or cuts, prices have skyrocketed. The government has also eliminated subsidies for essentials like electricity and cut welfare spending.

Meanwhile, taxes have increased as Wickremesinghe sharply increased tax rates and expanded the scope to increase public revenue.

Some economists say these painful measures are necessary to restore Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic stability as it tries to restructure its international debt and comply with bailout terms agreed with the International Monetary Fund.

The country’s foreign exchange reserves have risen to about $6 billion from just $20 million at the height of the crisis, and inflation is at around 0.5%.

But the real impact on millions of ordinary Sri Lankans is enormous.

A study According to the policy research organization Lirne Asia, which surveyed 10,000 households, it is estimated that up to three million people will fall into poverty by 2023, raising the number of poor people from four million to seven million.

These families are starving and so desperate for more money they have to pull their children out of school.

The Rajapaksa family denied any wrongdoing but in 2023 the country’s Supreme Court ruled that the family – including Gotabaya and Mahinda – were directly responsible for the economic mismanagement between 2019 and 2022 that caused the crisis.

Nimesha Hansini, a university student in Colombo, told BBC Sinhala that she felt Rajapaksa was “directly responsible for the economic crisis due to financial frauds carried out under the guise of development projects during his time in power”.

“But nothing has changed for them – only their political power has diminished,” she added.

“I don’t have much to say about them,” said Rashmi, a farmer in the traditional Rajapaksa stronghold of Hambantota. “We are suffering because of what they have done. We voted for them before, but that will never happen again.”

These are the thoughts that Namal Rajapaksa hopes to change – he wants to win back support.

His campaign focused on the legacy of his father, Mahinda, who is still regarded as a hero by some Sri Lankans.

This is despite several international calls to prosecute him for war crimes. The United Nations estimates that 100,000 people, including 40,000 Tamil civilians, were killed by Sri Lankan armed forces in the final stages of the conflict, but Mahinda Rajapaksa has never been convicted of any wrongdoing and has denied such allegations.

Mahinda’s image adorned Namal’s campaign rallies and his social media posts featured illustrations showing him posing with his father as a child.

He even tried to highlight their resemblance by growing a moustache and wearing Mahinda’s signature red scarf.

Many of his campaign posts were defiant: “We are not afraid of challenges; in fact, we welcome them. That’s something I learned from my father.”

Another post called him “patriotic, brave and progressive.”

“It seems to me that Namal Rajapaksa thinks, not wrongly, that representing his father’s legacy will help him protect his father’s vote base and benefit from it,” said Professor Uyangoda.

“This is a way to rebuild the SLPP’s broken electoral base.”

But many voters don’t seem to believe that – and polls don’t show Namal as a serious contender for the top job.

One comment on a campaign post on Namal’s Instagram account was scathing: “The latest heir to the Rajapaksa family is trying his hand at the presidency? This is a family affair, isn’t it?”

The reaction was even harsher. “I will never vote for Namal Rajapaksa. The years of hardship we went through are a curse on that family,” HM Sepalika, a villager who has resettled in Vavuniya in the north, told BBC Sinhala.

“The people of this country have come together and staged this struggle because they don’t want Rajapaksa. But they still have so much greed and lust for power that they are trying to come back and ask people to vote for them,” said Nishanthi Harapitiya, a shopkeeper in Hambantota.

Others said they could not take Namal seriously.

“Why should he ask for our votes? He is a child with no experience. Who will vote for him? Unless someone votes for him out of pity for his father, he cannot be elected president,” said Mohammed Haladeen, a trader from Kathankudy in eastern Sri Lanka.

Attention is now focused mainly on three candidates: opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the left-wing National People’s Party coalition, and Wickremesinghe, who is running as an independent candidate.

But Namal Rajapaksa may be playing a longer game.

Recent elections have seen dramatic political comebacks by the families or allies of once-unpopular dictators – such as Bongbong Marcos in the Philippines or even Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia.

“He wants to stay politically relevant, protect the SLPP’s voter base and be in politics until 2029,” said Professor Uyangoda.

Lakshan Sandaruwan, a university student who participated in the protest, agreed.

“Namal is participating in the vote to prepare the necessary context for 2029, not to become president this time,” he said.

“But if the people do not act intelligently, the people will create another Rajapaksa president.”