The Mysteries Surrounding the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. CO2 Definitely Not a Driving Factor – Watts Up With That?
A report from Germany by Climate List Editor
“Science is still far from reaching the pinnacle of knowledge”
Iconic image. Source: NASA
According to NOAA US Weather AgencyHurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year. During this time, the conditions necessary for extreme pressure areas to form prevail. First of all, the water temperature of the Atlantic Ocean is a determining factor, but so is wind shear.
In fact, there were storms predicted this year. However, so far there have been almost no storms.
In X, American meteorologist Ryan Maue consider possible reasons and ask colleagues to think about why the models have failed so far this year. Some storms have moved far north from land, where they have weakened and affected only parts of the east coast of the United States or Canada. At some point, they have reached Europe as a low pressure area.
Sahara desert dust
Maue suspects a number of reasons: the Hunga Tonga volcano erupting or a lot of Saharan dust in the Atlantic. Maue notes that the lack of storms doesn’t entirely contradict conventional climate change theories. Fewer storms are expected, but more intense ones are possible. So far, none have occurred, which is a blessing for those who might be affected. The Sahara itself is also experiencing a very rare weather event right now. It’s raining heavily for the conditions there.
The reason for this rainfall pattern can be found in what is known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). An area around the equator where the trade winds from the northern and southern hemispheres meet. Winds here are weak, but humidity is very high. This region is famous for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, which occur when warm, moist air rises, cools, and then falls back to the ground as rain. The ITCZ is a type of low-pressure trough that spans the globe and follows the zenith of the sun with a lag of about 3 to 4 weeks. Depending on the ratio of land to water, the ITCZ is deflected north or south in the region. Since land masses have a significantly lower capacity to store heat than water masses, land warms faster than the sea, and the ITCZ meanders more strongly here.
Regarding storms that fail to form, the site writes:
Normally, wave-like weather systems (also known as African East Waves, AEWs) develop at this time of year, moving east to west and often moving from the Guinea Highlands across the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and working to generate storms. Currently, this process is somewhat inhibited, currently reducing tropical activity in the Atlantic. A much more active season is forecast for this year as the hurricane season begins due to high water temperatures and the transition to La Niña conditions.”
Both events are clear evidence that science is still far from reaching the pinnacle of understanding in this field and that research still plays an important role.
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