Experts say AI and technology will be at the heart of modern warfare.
Anton Petrus
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Anton Petrus
Earlier this month, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, and former Google CEO, Eric Schmidt, wrote an article for Diplomatic The future of war is here.
They say the United States is not ready for that.
Their article opens with Ukraine and describes a war involving thousands of drones in the skies, while AI helps soldiers target and robots help clear mines.
The authors argue that technological developments have changed warfare more in the past few years than in decades—stretching back to the introduction of airplanes, radios, and mechanization to the battlefield. And while this new technology has been used minimally in current conflicts, it is just the beginning.
“What we’re experiencing today is the advent of drones on land and at sea, and that’s driven by artificial intelligence and the incredible capabilities that it brings,” Milley told NPR.
“Now, it’s not quite here yet, but what we’re seeing are snippets, some movie trailers, if you will, of future war. And you’re seeing it play out in Gaza. You’re seeing it play out in Ukraine. You’re seeing it play out in other parts of the world.”
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Evolution on the battlefield
Schmidt said this transition will happen much faster than some people expected.
“Self-reliance and affluence will transform warfare very, very quickly,” he told NPR.
“The only reason it didn’t happen is, thank God, the United States didn’t go to war, [but] Others do. If you look at Ukraine, you get a glimpse of the future. Much of the recent invasion of Kursk was due to the ability to use short- and medium-range drones to support combined ground operations.”
Schmidt believes that now, when the human element directly present on the battlefield can be replaced by remote operations, this will establish a new method of fighting, more precise and also significantly less expensive than traditional methods.
“Of course, I am concerned that this will eventually set a new standard and actually reduce the cost of war. But if you think about it, this technology is going to be invented one way or another, and I want it to be invented on American terms.”
Feeling unprepared
Both Milley and Schmidt said that even with major efforts to address this change, the bureaucratic process involved in getting approval from the Pentagon makes it difficult to act quickly and effectively.
“Even the president of the United States cannot change the Pentagon’s procurement process,” Schmidt said.
“The procurement process for weapons systems is designed to take 15 years. In the Ukraine situation, innovation happens on a three- to six-week timeline, and we need to find a way for the Pentagon to keep up with that. The only way to do that is with other agencies and other approaches, and with the understanding that you don’t design a product from scratch and then develop it for five years. You do it step by step, that’s how technology works.”
Milley agrees that to keep up, the entire system of operations in the military needs to be revolutionized.
“We are in the midst of a really fundamental change here. And then you have to have an operational concept. And then you have to define the attributes of a future force. And then change the acquisition system to build technological capabilities, adapt training, develop leaders, etc. Our acquisition system needs to be completely overhauled and updated.”
