2024 Tour Championship Picks, Odds: Expert Predictions, Top FedEx Cup Playoffs Winning Candidates From Betting Field

An incredible PGA Tour season comes to a close this weekend as the 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs conclude with the final leg at East Lake Golf Club. A whopping $25 million prize is on the line for whoever tops the leaderboard at the 2024 Tour Championship, and that person will not only take home a big chunk of money, but also a major trophy as one of the year’s top golfers.

Perhaps no two players have more chances than Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. The former has had a whirlwind season, with six PGA Tour wins, including the Masters and Players Championship, and an Olympic gold medal. The latter followed his first career major title at the PGA Championship with his second two months later at The Open Championship. Both have had incredible seasons to this point, and while Scheffler may be in pole position for PGA Tour Player of the Year, a Schauffele win could make that race significantly more interesting.

Which of these two feats is more impressive? Our CBS Sports experts debate it below. You can also check out FedEx Cup Playoffs Overviewincluding the final 30 men in the field and details on what to expect over the next 72 holes at East Lake.

Scheffler (-10) entered the lead with Schauffele (-8) two shots behind. Behind them, the top 10 in the leaderboard entering East Lake were Hideki Matsuyama (-7), Keegan Bradley (-6), Ludvig Åberg (-5) and the quartet of Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay (-4). The rest of the top 30 were 7-10 shots behind Scheffler with 72 holes to go.

The staggered leaderboard favors golfers who have had stellar seasons to date, but the advantage isn’t so great that lower-ranked players can’t make a run. So it’s possible the best player at the Tour Championship won’t be at the top of the leaderboard when the tournament concludes on Sunday, but with such a big purse — the top nine players will earn $2 million or more this weekend — every spot in the leaderboard matters.

So what will happen at East Lake? Check out all the predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we try to predict who will win — and what will happen — at the final PGA Tour event of the season.

Expert Predictions and Commentary on the 2024 Tour Championship

Kyle Porter, veteran golf writer

Winner – Xander Schauffele (5/2): It seems pretty clear to me that Schauffele will win this event. He absolutely dominates this golf course with a 3.55 true-stroke-gain-gain score, which is almost a stroke per round better than the second-best player in the field (minimum eight rounds played). Plus, he’s in better shape mentally than Scottie Scheffler. A Schauffele win would make the race for PGA Tour Player of the Year all the more interesting, as he’s won two majors and the FedEx Cup, but he’s likely to win the tournament. Are not achieve that honor.

Sleeper — Rory McIlroy (18-1): He absolutely destroyed East Lake, and at four under par, he’s playing in a position where he’s won this event before. (He caught Scheffler from sixth to start the 2022 event.) Golf hasn’t been great since the US Open, but I’d bet 16-1 that he’ll find something in a place he clearly loves and focus on winning this week.

Top 10 Participants Who Didn’t Win — Scottie Scheffler: Are you bold enough? I just don’t see Scheffler doing it. He’s never won a FedEx Cup Playoff event, and he’s coming off his worst week in two years at the BMW Championship last week. He clearly doesn’t like these playoffs, and there are too many horses racing behind him.

Biggest Chart Jump — Tommy Fleetwood: This is a good spot for Fleetwood to be in. He’s 22nd in the rankings and will start the back nine behind Scheffler. That should allow him to play with a lot of freedom, and he’s had some great golf of late, with three straight top-25s — two of them top-fives — since his exit at The Open in July.

Biggest Drop in Rankings — Keegan Bradley: Aside from Scheffler, Bradley may have the most significant fall. He’s climbed to fourth in the FedEx Cup standings, which doesn’t bode well for how he’s played in 2024. While it would be a pretty incredible story if he went out and won the FedEx Cup, it’s more likely the other way around.

Bigger achievement with victory — Scheffler or Schauffele? This is a difficult question, but I lean towards Scheffler Although neither has ever won the FedEx Cup before, a year of eight victories, including a Masters, Players, Olympic gold and a FedEx Cup title, may never be possible again, and that’s what Scheffler is facing this week at East Lake.

Patrick McDonald, golf journalist

Winner – Xander Schauffele (5/2): Recovery, not recovery, it doesn’t matter to Schauffele at East Lake. While the course will be different than in years past, the bones remain the same. Schauffele won in his rookie debut in 2017, posted the lowest score in 2020 and tied Viktor Hovland in the same category last year for second place in the FedEx Cup. He’s the most complete player in the game, and it’s time for him to lift the silver medal this weekend.

Sleeper — Rory McIlroy (18-1): It’s hard to say what a sleeper looks like in this tournament given the uneven scoring start, but McIlroy’s six-shot comeback against Scheffler should count. Most notably, Rory is coming off the biggest comeback in FedEx Cup Playoffs history, and he did it from exactly the same number of shots behind just two years ago. The competition in front of him this year is a little tougher, but after falling short in majors — including a heartbreaking blow at the US Open — and the Olympics, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him dominate again in Atlanta.

Top 10 Participants Who Didn’t Win — Scottie Scheffler: It’s the end of the year, and I’m feeling bold, so why not? Scheffler entered the Tour Championship with a two-stroke lead in each of the past two seasons, finishing runner-up and tied for sixth in those tournaments respectively. I don’t have high hopes for his performance at the BMW Championship, but with a sore back, Schauffele right behind him and a distaste for the format, I can see the world No. 1 leaving East Lake 0-3 when he takes pole position.

The biggest jump in the rankings — Billy Horschel: Hovland can be put in here at 2 under, but go one stroke further with Horschel at 1 under. The 2014 FedEx Cup champion has been playing great over the past month, with three straight top-10s before his impressive performance at the BMW Championship. His tee-to-green game is back, and his putting has always been capable of taking him to the top. He’s the bubble guy for the U.S. Presidents Cup team, and Horschel would love to impress captain Jim Furyk with his play at East Lake.

Biggest drop in rankings — Keegan Bradley: The BMW Championship winner started in fourth place at 6 under, but let’s not get caught up in the moment. Bradley has had a good — not great — season so far, with just three top-10s and two top-20s. He’s not had the best of times at East Lake, and with players like Ludvig Åberg, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa right behind him, I can see him going in the wrong direction.

Bigger achievement with victory — Scheffler or Schauffele? Schauffele had an unbelievable major championship season, but Scheffler Scheffler has put together a historic campaign; the FedEx Cup would be a fitting tribute to his mantle. A win would move him up to seventh on the PGA Tour and tie him with the totals of Tiger Woods in 2007 and Tom Watson in 1980. And that’s not counting his Olympic gold medal in Paris. Scheffler would also tie Jordan Spieth and Jason Day with 13 career PGA Tour wins — a fun little subplot.

Adam Silverstein, editorial director

Winner – Xander Schauffele (5/2): Scheffler is the best player in 2024, but Schauffele is definitely the hottest — despite the fact that Scottie beat Xander in Paris at the Olympics. While East Lake may have been resurgent, Schauffele felt right at home in Atlanta and simply dominated the field at every opportunity. A two-shot deficit is easy enough to overcome over nine holes, let alone a 72, and while I trust the others this week, there’s no one I’d rather have back at this point in the season.

The Sleeper – Viktor Hovland (66-1): The reigning champion needs to make up two strokes per round with Scheffler; it’s a tall order, but he has the firepower to do it. The St. Jude Championship reminded us that a player of Hovland’s caliber is never that far away. Despite a middling start at the BMW Championship, his putting continued to shine. He’s had seven consecutive rounds of 60 under his belt at East Lake.

Top 10 Participants Who Didn’t Win — Keegan Bradley: It’s been easy to root for Bradley lately, especially if you’re a fan of American golf and happen to watch “Full Swing,” where you see visual evidence of his devastation at not being selected for last year’s Ryder Cup team. Bradley’s rise to the top and winning the BMW Championship last week was huge, but his level of play doesn’t suggest he’s a guy who can be trusted to compete for consecutive weeks at this level of competition — let alone return for the final two tournaments of the season.

The biggest jump in the rankings — Billy Horschel: There’s a degree of bias here, as I always like to see my orange and blue brothers succeed, but this was a great end to Horschel’s season. He had an incredible run in the FedEx Cup a decade ago, and as Patrick mentioned, a potential Presidents Cup berth is at stake if he plays his best this week. Golf is more fun when Horschel plays well, even if his game isn’t what excites modern fans.

Biggest drop in rankings — Wyndham Clark: Despite his good play in the latter stages of the season, Clark hasn’t been at his best when the pressure’s on this season. He missed the cut in three of the four major championships and finished T56 at the US Open. With a Presidents Cup berth locked up, Clark is playing for the money — which is certainly appealing, don’t get me wrong, but the motivation factor simply isn’t the same as anyone else in the field.

Bigger achievement with victory — Scheffler or Schauffele? It absolutely has to be that way. Scheffler. While Schauffele has been excellent throughout this campaign, Scheffler seemed to be headed for a breakout season until his upset at the PGA Championship. He’s been relatively up and down (for him) since that tournament, with his dominance at the signature event helping him through the year. An Olympic gold medal is a significant feather in his cap; a FedEx Cup would be like slinging an absurdly large bag of money over his shoulder. It wouldn’t count toward his record-breaking season total, but the $25 million bonus on top of what he’s already earned would be something. It would also seal the PGA Tour Player of the Year honors he might have already won. Seven PGA Tour wins haven’t been achieved in 17 years.