By Gregory Wrightstone
The science of climate change is often presented in complex language, talking about computer models and their theoretical inputs and outputs, and then concluding that the Earth is on the verge of “boiling.” Well, let three physicists—who know their way around calculus and arcane matters like the behavior of molecules and the nuclear charge of atoms—simplify the analysis and come up with a much less alarming conclusion.
“Simple calculations… show that removing CO2 from the United States2 emissions by 2050 would avoid a temperature increase of 0.0084 degrees Celsius,” a summary states. paper Compiled by Dr. Richard Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; William Happer, Princeton University; and William A. van Wijngaarden, York University, Toronto. On the Fahrenheit scale, the value of the prevented warming is 0.015 degrees.
In short, the amount of warming that is prevented by removing CO2 emissions in the United States would be too small to measure. The paper reinforces the position of those who argue that climate change is the product of natural forces, that human-caused carbon dioxide emissions can have only a very small impact on global temperatures, and that CO2 is a valuable food and not a pollutant.
Rather than using theoretical assumptions about various factors fed into the computer, the paper’s calculations relied almost exclusively on widely accepted and publicly available “observable data,” Dr. Happer said.
“This is something that anyone with a computer can calculate,” said the scientist, who is perhaps best known for his contribution to laser-based technology to destroy incoming ballistic missiles as part of the so-called Star Wars program in the 1980s.
The data needed for the calculation are the number of years until 2050, the amount of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere, the amount that scientists regularly measure, and the current atmospheric CO2 concentration.2equivalent to approximately 427 parts per million as of June 2024.
The only data point assumed is the atmospheric sensitivity to CO2 increased. The paper uses a value that is close to the one commonly used “before global warming alarmism became fashionable.” Even if the value is quadrupled to the politically favored figure of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the amount of warming prevented would still be just 0.034 degrees Celsius.
So what would happen if the entire world eliminated carbon dioxide emissions from human activities? Since US emissions account for 12% of global output, the answer lies in the math to determine the remaining 88%. The paper’s calculation is that the amount of warming averted would be 0.07 degrees Celsius. Using the higher IPCC sensitivity value, that figure quadruples to 0.28 degrees Celsius. Both are insignificant, and certainly not worth destroying the world economy.
Noting that others using different approaches have come to similar conclusions as the paper, Dr. Happer said he and his co-authors wanted to demonstrate that the controversial topic of climate change does not have to be complicated.
“Many members of the public should understand that they are being misinformed by people whose interests are more tied to money and power than to popular environmental concerns,” he said. “The answers found in relatively simple mathematics clearly show that this is the case.”
Whatever the motivation, spending trillions of dollars to replace fossil fuels with expensive and unreliable wind and solar energy sources is foolish, futile, and dangerous.
This commentary was first published at RealClear Marketplace on August 14, 2024.
Gregory Wrightstone is a geologist; CEO of Plain2 LeagueArlington, Va.; author of “Inconvenient Truth: The Science Al Gore Doesn’t Want You to Know” And “Warming is Convenient: How Moderate Warming and More CO2 Benefit Humanity.“
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