New York Times (NYT) recently published a special Sunday article titled, “How close is the planet’s climate tipping point?
This article, which is mostly infographics and has few references or actual facts, deals with a number of topics about features of the Earth that may be “at risk of collapse”. The entire article is nothing more than speculation with fancy graphics and does not present any evidence that the Earth is close to these so-called “critical point” This article has hidden a lot of truth with ambiguous words like, maybe, maybe, maybeAnd maybe but no definite predictions can be made.
Here’s a summary of the claims in the NYT article, along with a “When It Might Happen” prediction following each topic.
Over the past two decades, scientists have been sounding the alarm about large systems in the natural world that warming, fueled by carbon emissions, could push toward collapse. These systems are so large that they can maintain balance even as temperatures rise. But only up to a point.
Scientists say that once we warm the planet beyond a certain point, that balance could be lost. The effects would be widespread and hard to reverse. It’s not like turning a dial, it’s like flipping a switch. A switch that doesn’t flip easily.
Mass death of coral reefs
Over time, coral reefs can recover. However, as the world warms, occasional bleaching events will become regular events. Mild bleaching events will become severe bleaching events. When might that happen: Maybe it’s already been done.
The collapse of the Greenland ice sheet and the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet
The likelihood of ice sheet collapse in Greenland and West Antarctica is more likely at 1.5°C. When might that happen: The timescale will vary from place to place. The effects of global warming could accumulate over a century or more. Irreversible melting could begin this century and last for hundreds or even thousands of years.
Sudden thawing of permafrost
Local thawing of permafrost is more likely at 1.5°C. When might that happen: The timescale will vary from place to place. The effects of global warming could accumulate over a century or more.
Sudden change of West African monsoon
Monsoon season can be disrupted. When might that happen: It is difficult to predict.
The loss of the Amazon rainforest
By 2050, half of the current Amazon rainforest area could be threatened. When might that happen: It will depend on how quickly humans exploit or protect the remaining forests.
Turn off the Atlantic Current
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) could slow down, changing the weather. When might that happen: It is difficult to predict.
As you can see, the NYT doesn’t have a definitive answer to the question “When could that happen.” This is not entirely surprising, since all tipping point predictions are based on computerized climate models that we know are flawed and prone to bias. overheat There is no scientific basis other than inherent bias.
Here’s what we know based on real data and measurements.
- The coral reef is growing very well. Despite the media hype, such as the example of this issue, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia is actually doing quite well and has reached Largest expansion ever recorded in 2024. It has been improving steadily.
- The Sudden thawing of permafrost is a summer phenomenon. Although there are a few cases where this occurs in winter, this is due to changes in weather model, not climate. The permafrost record is very short, we do not know whether this has happened in the past. The Arctic regions have high natural temperature variation. For example, in some parts of Siberia, the average January temperature is below -40 °C (-40 °F). In the summer, long sunny days melt the top layer of frozen soil and bring the average temperature above 10 °C (50 °F). At some weather stations in the interior, summer temperatures can reach 30 °C (86 °F) or higher.
- Greenland’s ice is melting, but The melting is very small compared to the total ice mass.. It also refreezes every winter.
- The melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet has been theorized for decades but has yet to occur. Again, like the Greenland ice, The melting is very small compared to the total amount of ice in Antarctica..
- No changes were observed in the West African monsoon. Science shows us West African summer monsoon rainfall varies greatly from year to year and from decade to decade, causing droughts and floods in many years.
- The loss of the Amazon Rainforest is largely about land reclamation for agriculture and miningnot climate change The NYT article even mentions this even though they still claim climate change will have an impact.
- There is no evidence that Atlantic ocean currents like the AMOC will stop working. Science proves it. not slowing down at all. In fact, climate science cannot really decide from year to year. whether it is speeding up or slowing down. The last sentence of the NYT’s Atlantic gyre section reads: “Possible timing: Hard to predict.” That’s accurate, but they still list it as a concern.
In short, this NYT article is nothing more than fear-mongering with a razor-thin veneer of science to back it up. Each “prediction” is so open-ended that it has the same probability as a coin flip. However, based on the physical evidence and data we have so far, which suggests that none of these breakthroughs will happen, even the 50-50 odds are unlikely to represent the future. The NYT has done their readers a huge disservice with this article.
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for climate and environment at the Heartland Institute. Watts has worked in the weather industry in front of and behind the camera as a broadcast meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasting. He has created graphic weather presentation systems for television, specialized weather measuring equipment, and co-authored peer-reviewed articles on climate issues. He runs the world’s most viewed climate website, the award-winning wattsupwiththat.com.
Originally posted on ClimateREALISM
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