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Bill Connelly, Editor of ESPN
Every four years or so, tennis brings us its fifth major tournament. Well, sort of. Tennis at the Olympics sometimes delivers epic heavyweight matches — and sometimes surprises.
It will be difficult to overcome Andy Murray compare to Roger Federer And Serena Williams compare to Maria Sharapova for the 2012 gold medal. It makes sense that Murray and Rafael Nadal combined to win three gold medals. However, Nicolas Massu And Monica Puig won the singles gold medal while Federer and Novak Djokovic do not do one small less meaningful
Like the 2012 Olympics, which took place at Wimbledon’s All England Club, the 2024 tournament in Paris will take place at a very familiar venue: Roland Garros, home of the French Open. Injuries have sidelined several highly ranked players, but all of this year’s French Open semifinalists, both men and women, are in the Olympics, as are 14-time French Open champion Nadal and two-time gold medalist Murray.
In other words, there are a lot of storylines to follow.
Wimbledon may have ended, but another Slam(ish) production is set to begin in just two weeks. Here are the names to know ahead of the Olympics.
Men’s Preview
Favourite
Carlos Alcaraz: It probably goes without saying that the guy who has won two previous Grand Slams will come to Paris as the No. 1 threat. After taking down both Jannik the Sinner And Alexander Zverev In five sets to win his first French Open title, Alcaraz beat Djokovic to win his second straight Wimbledon. Both times required persistence — he dropped a total of 10 sets in both tournaments and played seven tiebreakers (winning six) — but he has now won four of the last seven Grand Slams he’s entered. And he just turned 21 two months ago. That’s pretty cool.
Jannik the Sinner: Sinner won 25 of his first 26 matches of 2024 and won the Australian Open and the No. 1 ranking for the first time in June. However, he is 0-2 against Alcaraz, which makes him the No. 2 favorite in Paris.
There are few things more exciting in sports than the current Alcaraz vs Sinner match, and the thought of a gold medal match between them is truly enticing if all goes well.
Alexander Zverev: Not counting injury layoffs, Zverev has won 21 of his last 24 matches at Roland Garros. He reached this year’s final and was one set away from his first Grand Slam title before Alcaraz came back to win in five sets. Of course, if we count the Olympics as a Grand Slam, he already has one: He beat Djokovic, among others, to win the gold medal in Tokyo three years ago.
Novak Djokovic: He is struggling through his most disappointing season in years. For only the second time in 14 years, he has failed to win one of the year’s first three Grand Slam titles. He has not beaten a top-10 player on clay since the 2023 French Open. He is 37 and tore his meniscus less than a month ago.
He is also the all-time Grand Slam title leader and has won one match. with tore his meniscus at the French Open, then reached the Wimbledon final (albeit with a very lucky draw) just weeks after surgery. At best, he was a No. 3 contender in Paris, but… he could still be a No. 3 contender with a good knee at 37!
Casper Ruud: Gifted with powerful topspin, Ruud is built for clay. He has reached the semifinals of three consecutive French Opens and the final twice. Even with his results on other surfaces fluctuating, he is 21-5 on clay (6-2 against top 20 opponents) over the past year. Norway is a Winter Olympics nation, but he has a great chance of winning a medal.
Long shot
Stefanos Tsitsipas:Tsitsipas has had a disappointing few years, but while his results on other surfaces have been disappointing, he has reached the quarterfinals of the French Open in each of the last two years, after reaching the semi-finals in 2020 and the final in 2021. If he wants to make an impact at a major, it will likely be on clay this time around.
Daniil Medvedev: He has reached the final of five of the last seven hard-court Grand Slams, and although he has never reached the semifinals at Roland Garros, he has reached at least the round of 16 in 14 of the last 15 Grand Slams. At worst, he is the fourth-best player in the world, and he is the most consistent player in the sport when it comes to avoiding upsets. That makes him a threat.
Jan-Lennard Struff: Now let’s get to the long shot. At 34, the 6-foot-4 Struff has never won more than 54 percent of his tour matches in a given year, but he’s 23-15 (60.5 percent) in 2024, 11-4 on clay (73.3 percent), and he’s reached three of his four career finals since last May. An Olympic run would be the culmination of the big man’s late-career resurgence.
The Most Interesting Olympic Story
Moez Echargui: He’s 31, has never played a top-50 opponent and has a career-high ranking of 271. His biggest honor, aside from playing for the Tunisia Davis Cup team, might be winning the Mountain West Bronze Player of the Year award in Nevada. But he won the 2023 African Games and that qualifies him for the Olympics. He gets to play at Roland Garros. How cool would that be? And how cool would it be if he got to play Nadal or Djokovic in the first round?
Olympic miracle
Rafael Nadal: The veterans and the comebacks are creating some interesting Olympic subplots. On the women’s side, you have players like the 34-year-old Caroline Wozniacki and 36 years old Angelique KerberThe 2016 silver medalist, has returned after becoming a mother. The male drawing gives us even more story (yes, without the mother). We have Stan WawrinkaThe 39-year-old former French Open champion (2015) and, with Federer, the 2008 men’s doubles gold medallist. We have Murray, a two-time gold medallist and 2016 French Open finalist, playing his final tournament before retiring. And above all, we have Nadal.
Perhaps no one has ever been more closely associated with a major venue than Nadal is with Roland Garros. He has a 112-4 all-time record there, and he spent more than a year recovering from injury with the seemingly sole purpose of playing the combined French Open/Olympic Games in Paris. The French Open didn’t go as planned. As an unseeded player, he drew Zverev in the first round and played well, but still lost in straight sets. However, he skipped a potential final stop at Wimbledon in the name of clay-court conditioning and made one last run in Paris. It would have been great to see. We’ll see if he can play his way back, but with his ranking protected, at least he won’t be drawing a tournament favorite in the first round again.
Women’s Preview
Favourite
Iga Swiatek: The women’s tournament is a strange combination of three tournaments in one at the moment. On hard courts, the heavyweights — Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenkaetc — all of them have played well (when healthy) and played well. On grass, it’s basically a random results generator: We’ve seen eight different champions in the last eight Wimbledons and 13 different semi-finalists in the last four.
On clay, that’s Swiatek’s universe. She has won three straight French Open titles (and four of five), and in her last six WTA 1000 clay-court events, she has won four and reached the final of five. She played 15 sets at the 2024 French Open, dropping just one, and winning 10 of the other 14 by scores of 6-2 or worse. Her movement and defense on clay are near-perfect. No one is invincible, especially in best-of-three-sets, but on this surface, she’s nearly invincible.
Long shot
Coco Gauff: It’s strange to call the world No. 2 — and former French Open champion — a long shot, but that’s the situation when Swiatek is on the court. However, Gauff has a 15-0 record at Roland Garros against players Are not has been named Swiatek for the past three years, and hey, you still get a pretty cool medal for finishing second or third at this event, right?
Elena Rybakina: In her last 33 matches on clay, Swiatek is 0-2 against Rybakina (including an injury retirement in the third set, at least) and 31-0 against everyone else. Rybakina has been a bit inconsistent of late, losing to lower-ranked players in each of her last three tournaments, but she has a great game and knows what it’s like to beat Swiatek on clay. That makes her a contender.
Barbora Krejcikova: She has won one Grand Slam on clay (2021 French Open), her most recently Slam (Wimbledon, beating Jasmine Paolini in the final) and she won a gold medal (women’s doubles in 2020). It’s a near-perfect set of results if you’re looking for a medalist.
Paolini Jasmine: It’s been a great year for the 28-year-old. She was 4-16 at Grand Slams entering this year but will be 15-3 in 2024. She’s brimming with confidence, and her high-energy play (and short stature) has drawn crowds. She’s a threat to run any tournament she plays when she’s at this level.
Mirra Andreeva She reached the semifinals of the French Open a month after her 17th birthday, and she is 20-7 on clay (5-4 against the top 20) over the past two years. She has faltered in the grass-court season (0-2 in two events), but her game, blessed with a great ability to build points and anticipate, has blossomed on clay.
The Most Interesting Olympic Story
Laura Pigossi: The 29-year-old Brazilian didn’t make the main draw of the Slams until she was 27, and her career-high ranking is No. 100. But a strong showing at the Pan American Games last fall earned her an automatic spot. And hey, seven of her eight career wins over top-100 opponents have come on clay. She could spring an upset or two.
Olympic miracle
Danielle Collins: Okay, yes, “miracle” is an exaggeration — she is ranked ninth in the world, after all. But since announcing she would retire at the end of the season, the 30-year-old has enjoyed the most consistent run of her career, reaching three finals and winning two. She’s 16-4 on clay in 2024, and all four of her losses have come against non-Olympic players. A medal on the way out would be nice.
