BRUSSELS – There are many dynamics to the grain deal that Russia and Ukraine have reached, which officials didn’t even think was possible until last week, especially since the war is still ongoing and trust between the parties is extremely low.
Here’s what to know about the grain problem and how it can be resolved.
Why is Ukrainian grain stuck in the water?
After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, it deployed warships along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Ukraine exploits those waters to thwart a Russian naval attack. That means the ports used to export Ukrainian grain have been blocked for commercial shipping. Russia also stole grain stocks, exploited grain fields to make it impossible to harvest, and destroyed grain storage facilities.
How will the action work?
The captain of Ukraine will steer ships loaded with grain out of the ports of Odesa, Yuzhne and Chornomorsk.
Using untapped chunks, they will navigate the ships to Turkish ports for unloading, and then the grain will be shipped to buyers around the world.
Returning ships will be inspected by a team of Turkish, UN, Ukrainian and Russian officials to make sure they are empty and not carrying weapons to Ukraine, a key Russian need.
A joint command center with officials from all four sides will be established immediately in Istanbul to monitor every movement of the troops.
The parties have agreed that ships and port facilities used for their operations shall be protected from hostilities.
The operation is expected to soon begin shipping 5 million tons of grain per month. At that rate, and considering that 2.5 million tons have already been transported by land and river to Ukraine’s friendly neighbors, stocks of nearly 20 million tons should be cleared within three to five years. four months. This will free up space in storage facilities for the new harvest underway in Ukraine.
What are the risks?
No widespread ceasefire has been negotiated, so the ships will pass through a war zone. Attacks near ships or at ports they use could unravel the deal. Another risk would be a breach of trust or disagreement between inspectors and joint commanding officials.
The role of the United Nations and Turkey is to mediate such disagreements on the spot, and to monitor and enforce the agreement. The agreement is in effect for 120 days and the UN hopes that it will be extended.
Will this instantly solve world hunger and lower food prices?
No. Global hunger is a chronic problem caused by poor food distribution and price manipulation, affecting some parts of the world year after year. It is often complicated by conflict and also affected by climate change. The war in Ukraine, which produces a large portion of the world’s wheat, has placed an enormous burden on grain distribution networks, driving prices up and famine raging.
Officials say the deal is likely to increase the flow of wheat to Somalia within weeks, stave off famine, and will lead to a gradual decline in global grain prices. But given the fragility of the deal, the grain market is unlikely to return to normal immediately.
What’s in it for Russia?
Russia is also a major exporter of grain and fertilizer and this agreement will be easier to sell those goods on the world market.
The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that its stockpile cannot be exported because of US and European Union sanctions.
In fact, these measures did not affect those goods, but private transport companies, insurance companies, banks and other businesses have been reluctant to help Russia export grain and fertilizer. , for fear that they might commit sanctions or that doing business with Russia could damage its reputation.
To offer reassurance, the European Union on Thursday released a legal explanation clarifying its sanctions saying that many banks and other companies engaged in the grain trade on practically not prohibited.
With similar assurances from the United States, it has held talks with the private sector and commercial activity from Russia – especially the Russian port of Novorossiysk – will accelerate, the United Nations said.
