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Andre Snellings, ESPN
It’s show time! We’ve made it through the marathon of the NBA regular season and now it’s time for the real season to begin.
The question on everyone’s mind: Who will be the next champion? You can get odds on the answer to that question as well as related futures on ESPN BET.
Just as we did for individual awards during the regular season, let’s take a close look at the future state of the major playoff matchups at each stage of the NBA playoffs. Here’s where we stand when the play-in round ends and the playoffs begin.
Eastern Conference winner
Leader: Celtics (-200)
During the hunt: 76ers (+675), Bucks (+800)
Interesting long shots: Knicks (+1100), Cavaliers (+1700), Pacers (+2200)
The Celtics have been the frontrunners to win the East all season long and enter the playoffs as very strong odds…for good reason. The Celtics won the Eastern Conference by a whopping 14 games over the second-placed Knicks and are the healthiest of the competing teams in the East with the Knicks, Bucks, 76ers, Cavaliers and Heat dealing with injuries for star players. Additionally, the way the brackets are divided, the Celtics won’t have to face any of the three teams with the next shortest odds to win (76ers, Bucks, or Knicks) until the finals. meeting takes place. At -200, though, there’s not enough juice for me, so I’m effectively fading the Celtics unless/until the odds get closer to at least even money.
The 76ers have won 32 of 40 games Joel Embiid played this season including the play-in tournament, an 80.0% win rate is even better than the Celtics (64-18)’s 78.0% rate that leads the NBA this season. Embiid was likely on track to win his second straight MVP before a knee injury cut his season short, but he’s back and is averaging 33.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 5, 3 APG, 1.7 BPG and 1.0 SPG in 30.3 MPG in his last three regular-season contests. He seemed to struggle a bit physically in the play-in win against the Heat, but he still posted 23 points, 15 boards, five assists and one steal. He also hit some big shots late in that win. If Embiid is and can stay healthy, the 76ers would be a great value at +675, when their health level is probably very similar to the Celtics.
The Bucks are preseason favorites after the trade for a price Damian Lillard this season, but never seemed to take full effect during the regular season. They changed coaches midway through, with Doc Rivers now at the helm. More importantly, they lost MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, to a calf strain in the final week of the season. It’s unclear if and when he might return, making them a risky bet at the moment. However, they can be high risk/high reward because if Giannis comes back and Khris Middleton continue to find their feet, the Bucks are another team that can win it all.
The Knicks, Cavaliers, and Pacers are all teams with long-term potential as they are tough teams and have the advantage to win several series, but with their current personnel, they are unlikely to beat the Celtics. With that said, anything can happen in the playoffs, and we’ve already mentioned how injuries have plagued the majority of competing teams. The Knicks (76ers) and Pacers (Bucks) face the two top-rated non-Celtic opponents, but get them in the first round when their MVP big man still has the most injury questions.
Western conference winner
Leader: Com (+130)
During the hunt: Mavericks (+550), Thunder (+550)
Longer photos of interest: Timberwolves (+900), Lakers (+1200)
The defending champion Nuggets are considered favorites to win the West again this season, although the tough nature of the tournament prevents them from being listed as favorites. Based on the regular season, the line between the Nuggets and the rest of the West appears to be much thinner than it was last season, with the Thunder finishing as the top seed and the Timberwolves just a game back. Nuggets again for both. Additionally, the Nuggets are in the tougher half of the West bracket, with a first-round matchup against last season’s conference finals opponent, the Lakers, and a potential second-round matchup with the Timberwolves or Suns. The West’s struggles combined with their low odds doomed the Nuggets entering the playoffs.
The Mavericks scored the second shortest odds to win the West on the strength of a hot end to the regular season. They won 16 of their 18 games before securing seeding for the playoffs and rested players in their last two games, with Luka Doncic leading and increasing the number of NBA MVP votes. During that span, Doncic averaged a 30-point virtual triple-double with 31.3 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 9.9 APG. With the Mavericks on the other side of the division from the Nuggets, their path to the conference finals will go through an injury-plagued Clippers team. Kawhi Leonard and potentially a Thunder team that is very good but also young and inexperienced.
Speaking of the Thunder, so much has been said about their inexperience and lack of size that it’s easy to overlook how good they’ve been this season. The Thunder went 55-20 in 75 games Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played, the win percentage was 73.3, with SGA leading the way and making the leap to MVP level. The Thunder have winning records against both the four-seeded Mavericks and fifth-seeded Clippers, as well as against the Nuggets this season. With home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, the Thunder are good value at +550.
The Timberwolves and Lakers are both at long odds despite having teams capable of winning the conference. The Timberwolves competed for the top seed throughout the season, even staying in the race afterward. Karl-Anthony Town was injured. With Towns back, the human highlight reel (Shoutout Dominique Wilkins) Anthony Edwards demonstrate a career-long history of improving performance and scoring average in the postseason, and Rudy Gobert providing a defensive anchor of decent size for the Nuggets, the Timberwolves have strong value at +900.
The Lakers have made their struggles with the Nuggets public, losing all nine of their most recent games, including last season’s conference finals win, and all three regular-season games by at least eight points. With that said, they finished this season with a similar record, winning 12 of their last 15 games including the play-in. Despite the losing streak against the Nuggets, the Lakers remained competitive in most games before fading late. If they can find the Nuggets, an admittedly huge team, with Jokic’s size, the Lakers will do well against any other team in the West. I consider them to have reasonable ranged value at +1100.
NBA champion
Leader: Celtic (+145)
During the hunt: Com (+275)
Longer photos of interest: Thunder (+1400), Mavericks (+1500), Bucks (+1600), 76ers (+1600), Lakers (+1800), Timberwolves (+1800)
Final MVP
Co-leader: Jayson Tatum (+230), Nikola Jokic (+320)
During the hunt: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+1500), Luka Doncic (+1800)
Interesting long shots: Anthony Edwards (+2200), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+2200), Joel Embiid (+2500)
Now, these two futures are combined because the Finals MVP almost always comes from the winning team.
Tatum and Jokic’s Finals MVP odds are almost on par with the Celtics and Nuggets’ chip odds, and they are the top two. Like the conference races above, I’m actually fading the leaders because there isn’t enough momentum to justify them against such strong competition in a deep playoff field.
However, I see some value in each of the other teams/players listed above. All are well-placed to win it all, with the best players clearly very likely to win the Finals MVP if their team gets the chips. Doncic at +1800 and Embiid at +2500 are the ones with the most interest, because both play for exciting teams entering the postseason and both are at the point in their careers they are arguably the best players on the planet and are overdue for success in the playoffs.
