2023 • Watts Up With That?

From edmhdotme

Ed Hoskins

Summary

The imposed policy of insisting on Weather-Dependent “Renewables” is an effort to gather power from dilute unreliable sources and to attempt to use those dilute intermittent power sources to replace reliable and productive power generators.  Conventional power generators Coal-firing, Nuclear, Gas-firing operate and 80%-90% productivity.

The imposition of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” onto the a Nations power generation fleet degraded the overall productivity for their whole power sectors, with results as follows:

• Germany:  overall generation fleet productivity is reduced to 30%
• the UK:  overall generation fleet productivity is reduced to 45%
• France:  overall generation fleet productivity is reduced to 55%
• the combined Germany – the UK – France power generation fleet productivity is reduced to 41%.

In other words the policies of imposing Weather-Dependent “Renewables” has already lead to massive loss of performance of the power generation fleet of any Nation embracing the dogma of Net Zero / Catastrophic Climate Change.  This damage to the performance of power generation in Western Nations is made in the context that most of the world including China, India and other rapidly growing Nations have no concern about growing their much more significant CO2 emissions.

https://edmhdotme.wpcomstaging.com/quantifying-futility-probable-future-co2-emissions-data-2023-bp-ei-uk/embed/#?secret=rsswlDbt7F#?secret=MnVrEhmooJ

Introduction

With the installation of ~207GW of Weather-Dependent “Renewables”, the three Nations Germany, the UK and France account for about half the total European EU + UK “Renewables” installation, ~427GW in total.  Both the UK and France have made commitments to “Renewables” at about 1/3 the level of that of Germany.

Germany with its longterm “die Energiewende” policy has made the largest commitment.  The UK has the largest Offshore wind power installation in Europe.  France with its longstanding policy for Nuclear power has also made a a large commitment to Onshore Wind power and Solar PV power.  France is not involved with Offshore wind power.

France as a result of its Nuclear policy has achieved the lowest CO2 emissions/head of any developed Nation and remains below the Global average.  It would therefore seem that any further French commitment to Weather-Dependent “Renewables” to control its CO2 emissions was an unnecessary and self-harming policy.

The table below summarises the comparative performance either the overall European (27) + UK  commitment to Weather-Dependent “Renewables”.

Productivity / Capacity performance is the the annual achieved power output as actually achieved divided by the size actual generation installation.  Hourly power generation data for the full year July 2022 – June 2023 has been collated for the three major Nations Germany, the UK and France from Gridwatch and is used to assess the actual power output for comparative purposes here.

An overall productivity level in the region of 16 – 20 % means that to provide the same amount of power to the grid, 5-6 times more “Renewable” installations are needed than for  conventional power generators, (Gas, Coal or Nuclear).  In addition, it is unlikely that the power from those “Renewables” will be delivered as and when needed.  As the power supply is Weather-Dependent, the timing of the power produced can never be controlled and is unresponsive to power demand.

Accordingly, these productivity / capacity percentages are a more generous interpretation of the usefulness of Weather-Dependent “Renewable” generated power.

The record of past productivity of European Weather-Dependent “Renewables” since 2011 is shown below.  Those past productivity values show some variability year on year but they are consistent with the poor productivity values shown above for the 2022-2023 period.

This graphic shows:

• there is still a high dependence in Germany on CO2 emitting Coal, Lignite and Biomass for power generation, Coal is rated to have about twice the level of CO2 emissions of Gas-firing, whereas Biomass, (especially if imported from overseas), has about 3.5 times the CO2 emissions produced by Gas-firing.
• in April 2023 Germany finally terminated the last of their Nuclear power industry.  This was an wholly irrational, emotional decision for a country that has been fully committed to CO2 emissions reduction for the last two decades and has always intended to be the world leader in decarbonisation of Western economies.
• in spite of its long-term “Die Energiewende” policy, German CO2 emissions/head are still the highest in Europe.  Those CO2 emissions are now growing to compensate for withdrawing from Nuclear power generation.  Having previously being able to produce about 16% of the German power requirement with nil CO2 emissions, Germany closed its last Nuclear power stations in April 2023, well before the end of their useful service life.
• in certain winter periods there can be massive power overproduction from the superfluous installation of Wind power.  The excess is curtailed or wastefully exported, often at a significant cost.
• there is a substantial dependence on Gas-fired power generation during periods of low “Renewables” output.  Prior to the Ukrainian war German Natural Gas was sourced from Russia, via the Nordstream pipelines, now sabotaged.  This is likely to lead to supply problems in the coming 2023 winter.

This graphic shows:

• the 63GW of installed Wind power only rarely reaches a peak of 2/3 of their potential full power output
• the massive variation of and virtual disappearance of Solar power input in the winter months,
• periods of dunkelflaute when both Wind and Solar power are virtually absent at times of maximum power demand.

German power installations and recorded output

Comparing the installed “Renewables” Generators with their actual output and seeing them from the perspective of their contribution to the power grid the following poi

• the German “die Energiewende” policy has resulted in the nominal installation of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” making up ~74% of Germany’s generation fleet.
• as they are Weather-Dependent those “Renewable” power contributions to the grid are uncontrollable, intermittent and unreliable.
• Solar PV:  Solar installations amount to ~67GW or ~38% of the total German power fleet have a measured annual productivity / capacity of ~9.3%.  Solar power only contributes about 10.4% of the power to the Grid.  Solar output inevitably fluctuates diurnally but its output is also virtually non-existent during the high demand dull winter months.  Solar power is still intermittent in the summer.
• Wind power:  the ~8GW of German Offshore wind power contributed well in the 2022-23 year at ~39%, a high productivity value.
• overall Wind power in Germany only reached a productivity value of ~23%  as a result of the poor performance of the extensive German Onshore wind power installations at ~21%.
• 48% of the German power contribution is still provided by CO2 emitting fuels.  These CO2 emissions are necessarily increasing as a result of the closure of Nuclear power in Germany:
  • Coal ~10%, with CO2 emissions about twice that of Natural Gas
  • Lignite ~18%, with CO2 emissions about twice that of Natural Gas
  • Biomass ~9%, with CO2 emissions about 3.6 times that of Natural Gas
  • Natural Gas ~11%.
• Nuclear power:  even in the last 9 months of Nuclear power operation it provided an overall ~5% annual power input.
• Net transfer:  as there is an excess of Wind power in the fleet (at ~+115% of the normal demand), in productive times, when there wind speeds are optimal, these Wind installations inevitably produce unusable excess power.   The Net transfer figure for Germany is mainly comprised of the disposal of those power excesses, which are often curtailed, (just thrown away), or transferred to other countries often at a negative price.
• the policy imposition of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” on the German grid reduces its overall generation productivity to ~30%, whereas conventional generators, Gas, Coal or Nuclear would normally operate at 80% – 90%.

This graphic summarises the position of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” in Germany resulting in a “Renewables” productivity level close to 16%.

The United Kingdom   July 2022 – June 2023

This graphic shows:

• the high dependence in the UK on natural gas for power generation.  Natural gas is also used widely in the UK for domestic and other space heating.
• UK CO2 emissions/head were substantially reduced by the UK “Dash for Gas” policy in the 1990s, when the use of Coal as fuel for power generation was progressively eliminated.
• the dependence on Gas-fired power generation during periods of low “Renewables” output.
• there is still a significant Nuclear power contribution to the UK power generation mix.  This commitment to Nuclear power is expected to grow but always seems to be impeded by policy or overregulation.

Notable points shown in this graphic are:

• the 27GW of installed Wind power only rarely and then for few hours at a time reach a peak at 2/3 of their potential full power output
• there is massive variation of and virtual disappearance of Solar power output in winter months,
• periods of low production when both Wind and Solar power are virtually absent.  The loss of power productivity is usually at times of maximum power demand.

UK power installations and recorded output

Comparing the installed “Renewables” Generators with their actual output and seeing them from the perspective of their contribution to the power grid the following points arise:

• the UK policy of imposing Weather-Dependent “Renewables” has resulted in their now making up ~63% of the UK’s generation fleet but these installations have only resulted in producing ~29% of the power to the Grid.  As they are Weather-Dependent those “Renewable” power contributions to the grid are uncontrollable, intermittent and unreliable.
• the measured productivity of UK Solar power was at ~10%.
• the Solar installations amount to ~13GW ~20% of the total UK power fleet but only contributed ~5% of the power to the Grid.  Solar output inevitably fluctuates diurnally and its output is also virtually non-existent during the dull winter months.  Solar power produces intermittently but is at its maximum in the summer, the times of lowest demand.
• Wind power:  UK Offshore wind contributed reasonably in the  2022-23 year at ~31% capacity, and over the year Wind power in the UK only had a low productivity of ~26%.
• 48% of the UK power contribution is still provided by CO2 emitting fuels:
  • Biomass ~5% with CO2 emissions about 3.6 times Natural Gas.  Biomass generation is mainly situated at the Drax site in Yorkshire.  Drax the largest power station in the UK power station burns wood pellets imported from North America instead of using Coal from the seam on which it is built.  The excessive CO2 emissions from Drax, although politically assessed as being Carbon Neutral, actually negate any and all of the CO2 emissions savings that may have been achieved by “Renewables” etc.  throughout the UK.  It should be noted that by policy this process is heavily subsidised by the UK taxpayer and the management at drax have been gaming the subsidy system to maximise profits.
  • Natural  Gas:  provides ~42% of the power output.  The transfer to Gas-firing from Coal burning is mainly responsible for the achievement in UK CO2 emissions reduction since the 1990s
  • Coal ~1%  with CO2 emissions about twice Natural Gas.  A few Coal-fired power stations remain operational in the UK and are used only in times of emergency.  Most UK Coal-fired power stations were demolished before the end of their useful lives rather than being mothballed for possible use as reserve.  The few remaining Coal-fired stations are likewise threatened with closure and demolition in the near future.
• Nuclear power:  provided a ~16% contribution of power over the whole year.
• Net transfer: on occasions there is some export of power from the UK at times of good wind power productivity.  The UK Net transfer figure is mainly made up of essential power imports, often at a level ~10% of all UK power mainly imported from France and the Netherlands they are continuously required to support the UK Grid.
• the policy of imposing Weather-Dependent “Renewables”, Solar and Wind power on the UK grid has reduced the overall power generation productivity to ~45%:  whereas conventional generators, Gas, Coal or Nuclear would normally operate at ~80% – 90% productivity.

This graphic summarises the position of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” in the UK resulting in a productivity level more than 20%.

France  July 2022 – June 2023

This graphic shows::

• the major long-term French commitment to the development and use of Nuclear power.  The policy that was originally instituted in the 1950s, in response to the oil price shock.  Electric power is widely used in France for domestic heating.
• the long-term Nuclear power policy has resulted in French CO2 emissions/head being below the Global average.
• there is some dependence on Gas-fired power generation during periods of low “Renewables” power output.
• Net Transfer: over the early part of 2022-2023 period the Net transfer from France was abnormally low.  In 2022 there was a major cut back in French Nuclear power production taken out of commission for essential deferred maintenance.  As a result France on occasions was even forced to import power in 2022 to sustain its Grid.  Nuclear power generation in France was largely restored in 2023.  Up until that time France had normally been a supportive exporter of a large tranche of its Nuclear power output, particularly to the UK and Germany.  Germany and the UK are still highly dependent of those power imports to sustain their Grids.
• France has a substantial power contribution (~8%) from its Hydropower installations.

Notable points shown in this graphic are:

• the 2oGW of installed Onshore Wind power only rarely and then for few hours at a time reach a peak at 2/3 of their potential full power output
• the massive variation of and marked diminution of Solar power input in the winter months,
• periods of low production when both Wind and Solar power are virtually absent, usually at times of maximum power demand.
• France has made no commitment to developing Offshore wind power.

France power installations and recorded output

Comparing the installed “Renewables” Generators with their actual output and seeing them from the perspective of their contribution to the power grid the following points arise:

• French Nuclear power makes up ~41% of all French generating installations.  Nuclear power provided ~66% of French power output, this level can be expected to grow as more Nuclear plants come back on line.
• nonetheless, Weather-Dependent “Renewables” make up ~44% of the French generation fleet but these installations have only resulted in contributing ~14% of the power to the Grid.
• the measured productivity of French Solar power at ~13% was relatively high, reflecting the more southerly location of France than the UK or Germany.
• the Solar installations amount to ~17GW ~20% of the total French power fleet but only contributed ~5% of the power to the Grid.  Solar output inevitably fluctuates diurnally but its output is also virtually non-existent during the dull winter months and it produces intermittently but Solar power is at its maximum in the summer, the times of lowest demand.
• French Onshore Wind power is 24% of the power generation installations but contributed less than 10% to the Grid.   As Wind power is Weather-Dependent those power contributions to the grid are uncontrollable, intermittent and unreliable.
• France uses Natural gas ~6% of the power installations to compensate for the variability of Wind and Solar power.  Nuclear power is less flexible and not able to be as responsive as gas-firing.
• France has a substantial Hydro power installation responsively supplying ~9% of the power to the Grid.
• the policy of imposing Weather-Dependent “Renewables”, Solar and Wind power on the French grid has reduced the overall power generation productivity to ~55%:  whereas conventional generators, Gas, Coal or Nuclear would normally operate at ~80% – 90% productivity.

This graphic summarises the position of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” in France resulting in a productivity level of ~18%.

Conclusions

The following diagram shows the progress in CO2 emmisions/head reductions in Europe since 1990.

In 2022 the German, UK and French performance can be compared with the the CO2 emissions/head of China and the Global average CO2 emission reduction performance comparisons with China and the Global average show:

• German CO2 emissions are 5% more than China and are ~80% above the Global average
• the UK CO2 emissions are 34% less than China and are only ~12% above the Global average
• French CO2 emissions are 48% less than China and are ~11% below the Global average.

The policy of controlling the relatively minor European CO2 emissions to affect “Climate Change” at all should in itself be open to question.

But if any evidence were needed, these data shows that using Nuclear power is a really effective way of controlling National CO2 emissions.  However the obsessive and extreme Green attitudes in Germany have finally terminated their Nuclear operations for entirely emotional, non-engineering reasons.  As a result Germany has destroyed its productive Nuclear power industry.  National CO2 emissions are now growing in Germany as they are using more Coal, Biomass and Lignite to compensate for that irrational decision.  This outcome is in direct opposition to the objectives of their long-term “die Energiewende” policy.

When the data of National power production is compared with the nominal size of installed Weather-Dependent “Renewables” the scale of excess installations becomes clear:

• Germany ~115% more Weather-Dependent “Renewables” installed than their annual power output
• the UK ~40% more Weather-Dependent “Renewables” installed than their annual power output
• France ~11% less Weather-Dependent “Renewables” installed than their annual power output

Such over installation results in power wastage whenever weather conditions are favourable for “Renewables” production.

The imposed  policy of insisting on Weather-Dependent “Renewables” is an effort to gather power dilute sources of power and use those dilute intermittent power sources to replace reliable and productive power generators.  Conventional power generators Coal-firing, Nuclear, Gas-firing can  operate and 80%-90% productivity.

The imposition of Weather-Dependent “Renewables” onto the a Nations power generation fleet results in loss of overall productivity for the whole power sector, with results as follows:

• Germany:  generation fleet productivity is reduced to 30%
• the UK:  generation fleet productivity is reduced to 45%
• France:  generation fleet productivity is reduced to 55%
• the combined Germany – the UK – France:  generation fleet productivity is reduced to 41%.

In other words the policies of imposing Weather-Dependent “Renewables” has already lead to massive loss of performance of the power generation fleet of any Nation embracing the dogma of Net Zero / Catastrophic Climate Change.

Low productivity means that the capital and running costs of power generation installations are nonetheless geared to the scale of the installations and not to their actual power production.

https://edmhdotme.wpcomstaging.com/a-few-graphs-say-it-all-for-renewables/embed/#?secret=tlUpWTWabp#?secret=LK6Rlvqonb

When the comparative costs account for their achieved productivity, these simple sums show that any claim that Wind and Solar power are cost competitive with Conventional fossil fuel power generation are patently false.

Never forget Sun Tsu’s first art of war:

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

That is exactly what is happening as Western governments pursue self-harming Green Energy policies.  There is no better way to damage Western societies than by rendering their power supplies unreliable and expensive.

Data Sources

The data is condensed from Gridwatch to Hourly intervals:

• for the UK  5 minute intervals
• for France  15 minute intervals

Note that French data is missing for a few days in March 2023

Those data were condensed to hourly intervals

The German data was provided by Rolf Schuster