2023 Hero World Challenge odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from computer model that’s called 10 majors

Tiger Woods will tee off in a competitive event for the first time since the Masters when the 2023 Hero World Challenge gets underway on Thursday. The event is unofficial and doesn’t offer FedEx Cup points but does benefit the Tiger Woods Foundation and offers points for the Official World Golf Ranking. Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas has hosted the tournament since 2015, and even though the Hero World Challenge 2023 field is limited to just 20 golfers, it’s stacked with some of the biggest names in the sport.

Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, and Rickie Fowler are just some of the names set to tee off when play begins Thursday. FedEx Cup champion, Viktor Hovland, is the two-time defending winner, and he’s the 4-1 favorite in the 2023 Hero World Challenge odds. Scottie Scheffler is close behind at 9-2, followed by Collin Morikawa (8-1) and Max Homa (8-1). Woods is the biggest longshot at 80-1. Before locking in your 2023 Hero World Challenge picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. And at the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, the model included Nick Taylor in its best bets to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. That bet hit at +7000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,900. McClure’s best bets also included Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 10 majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now that the 2023 Hero World Challenge field is set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 Hero World Challenge predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2023 Hero World Challenge: Morikawa, a two-time major champion and one of the top favorites, struggles this week and doesn’t even crack the top five. He won the Zozo Championship in October with an impressive final round 63, but this will be his first time playing since that event. Morikawa was scheduled to play in “The Netflix Cup” two weeks ago before withdrawing due to a back injury. 

The 26-year-old has dealt with back injuries throughout the season, as he also withdrew from the Memorial Tournament in June due to muscle spasms. He returned two weeks after that, but he finished outside the top 10 at the U.S. Open. Morikawa has never finished better than T-5 at the Hero World Challenge, giving bettors multiple reasons to avoid him at short odds this week. 

Another surprise: Rickie Fowler, a 20-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He’s already won this event before, also at Albany, when he shot a course-record of 61 in the final round to claim victory in 2017. He’s played this tournament five times in his career and has never had a bad showing, with four top-5s and never finishing outside the top 10.

Fowler had a resurgent 2022-23 PGA Tour season, claiming his first victory in over four years. He had eight top-10 finishes last year, which doubled the amount he had over his three previous seasons combined. His all-around balance powered his success as he ranked among the top 20 on tour in total driving efficiency, strokes gained: approach to green and putting average. Given his past success at this event and the brilliance he flashed last season, Fowler is a steal at 20-1 for 2023 Hero World Challenge bets. See who else to pick here.

How to make 2023 Hero World Challenge picks

The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.

Who will win the Hero World Challenge 2023, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Hero World Challenge odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Hero World Challenge leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 10 golf majors, including this year’s Masters and Open Championship.

2023 Hero World Challenge odds, field

See the full Hero World Challenge 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Viktor Hovland +400
Scottie Scheffler +450
Collin Morikawa +800
Max Homa +800
Matt Fitzpatrick +1600
Justin Thomas +1600
Cameron Young +1600
Sam Burns +2000
Jordan Spieth +2000
Rickie Fowler +2200
Tony Finau +2200
Wyndham Clark +2200
Brian Harman +3000
Will Zalatoris +3300
Keegan Bradley +3500
Jason Day +3500
Sepp Straka +3500
Justin Rose +3500
Lucas Glover +5500
Tiger Woods +8000  


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