By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The road to the Kentucky Derby continues this weekend with two pre-season races: the $150,000 Jerome S. on Saturday at the Aqueduct and the $100,000 Sham S. (G3) on Sunday at Santa Anita.
Let’s dive in and handicap both races:
Jerome S. at Aqueduct
Eight horses gathered for the one-mile Jerome S., the second of five horses in the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying that took place at the Aqueduct from December to April.
The first leg of the series was Remsen S. (G2) on December 3 contested over 1 1/8 miles, and while winner Dubyuhnell chose to skip Jerome, Team Remsen was still represented by the finisher. runner up game #6 Arrogance in the Arctic.
Any way you cut it, Arctic Arrogance is a formidable favorite of Jerome. He gave his all in Remsen, setting the pace on a sloppy track before fighting to finish half way to victory. Remsen is a fast paced race and Arctic Arrogance trails third place finisher Tuskegee Airmen, an undefeated bet winner 11 1/4 of the way there.
Arctic Arrogance’s Remsen run was not a stroke of luck. Two back-to-back starts, he led most of the way to win the mile-long Sleepy Hollow S. at the Aqueduct at 4 1/2. The one mile cut (and drop from Class 2) will make Arctic Arrogance hard to catch in Jerome.
The only problem, and it may not be a huge one, is the fact that Jerome completely crammed speed on paper. #2 Go around the drain, #3 Valentine’s Day, #5 Andiamo and Florenceand #8 Daffodils Agent have all done their best while setting or boosting speed, so Arctic Arrogance runs the risk of getting caught up in a duel for early supremacy.
Perhaps this can tilt the scale in favor of #1 Neural Network, who showed control in his first seven-long sprint against New York hybrids at the Aqueduct. The neural net ran wide and tackled up to 2 1/2 lengths of speed before finishing quickly on the run home (finally: 12.60) to beat his pursuers in 5 distances. The effort was commended as third-place finisher Drake’s Passage returned to win the next start at the same track and class level.
The neural network was trained by Chad Brown, who is known for showing off very good horses at Aqueduct. Preakness S. (G1) Cloud and Early Voting winners all started at Aqueduct, as did Brown’s Kentucky Derby (G1) Shagaf and My Man Sam starters. With the exception of Wood Memorial, Brown has at least one win in each of the qualifying rounds of the Aqueduct’s Road to the Kentucky Derby, so it’s up to Brown to take on direct contenders in this winter’s prep races. normal.
I am optimistic that Neural Networks have a lot of upside and he seeks to make a favorable ride in this fast-paced field. He’s my pick to surprise Arctic Arrogance.
Sham S. (G3) at Santa Anita
Hall of Fame coach Bob Baffert has won the Sham eight times, including the last three. Baffert will most likely claim his ninth win on Sunday, as he coaches four of the six runners in this one-mile race.
The favorite will almost certainly be Baffert .’s #2 National Treasure, and for obvious reasons. National Treasure ran well in a few starts on the Road to the Kentucky Derby last fall, finishing second in the American Pharoah (G1) and third in the Breeders’ Cup for the minors (G1). Only two horses have beaten National Treasure: Cave Rock and Forte, both of which are multiple 1st place winners and likely finalists for the Eclipse Prize.
But I’ll think a little outside the box and come back #3 Speedboat Beach to replace. The Florida-bred foal set an enviable record on grass, winning the 5-mile Speakeasy S and the 1-mile Cecil B. DeMille S. (G3) finishing in second place. 9 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint (G1).
But as the son of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Bayern overtook the Kentucky Derby mare Pioneerof the Nile, the Speed Boat Beach was bred to shine on the ground. Even better, he smashed his daughter resoundingly on the dirt track, knocking down the 5 1/2-feather girl’s exceptional weight at Del Mar in a record time of 1:01 ,eighty six. Second place that day was Hejazi, who finished third (3.5 miles behind National Treasure) in the American Pharoah.
Returning to land could trigger the best performance of his career from Speed Boat Beach, so I believe he could upset National Treasure, his more forewarned stable friend.
Now it’s your turn! Who’s your favorite in this week’s Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled athlete, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
