Xi and Putin advertise ‘redistribution of power in the world,’ and they are unafraid of their ambitions
This thing is big.
The two leading dictators of our time have declared an unprecedented common goal, perhaps even a de facto security alliance, with the desire to shape a new world order to replace the new world order. world created by the United States and its partners after World War II.
President of China Xi Jinping and the President of Russia Vladimir Putin want to make sure that the world doesn’t miss the importance of 38order personal meeting in Beijing on Friday, just hours before the opening of the Winter Olympics and with more than 100,000 Russian troops are threatening Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.
So they released their whole audacity publicly, Joint statement 5,300 words in English this weekend, declaring that “a trend has emerged towards a redistribution of power in the world” – namely towards them and away from the United States and its democratic partners and their allies.
There’s a lot in the statement that’s worth reading and digesting, but here’s a rough rundown of my executive: Russia and China are making great efforts in a gesture of cooperation that goes beyond partnership. Stalin and Mao, in each other’s regions and around the world. For the first time, Beijing joined Moscow in opposing NATO expansion and accepting Putin’s vision of a new European security order. Russia has responded to support by opposing the new Australia-US-British security agreement, endorsing the One China Policy, adopting a Russian-Indian-Chinese form of cooperation and supporting the Arctic role of surname.
Russia and China do not call their partnership a diverse NATO alliance, but they are not shy about its ambitions.
Xi and Putin, read statement“, reaffirming that the new interstate relations between Russia and China are superior to the political and military relations of the Cold War. Friendship between two countries knows no bounds. No ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation (emphasis added), the strengthening of bilateral cooperation is not directed against third countries nor is it affected by changes in the international environment and changes in circumstances in third countries. “
A Biden administration official said that while the statement did not mention Ukraine by name, perhaps showing China’s displeasure at the prospect of invasion, but at the same time, Mr. Xi said nothing to prevent Putin’s escalation. .
inside statementthe two sides are redefining the very meaning of democracy to embrace their repressive systems in order to censor the media, ban dissent, lock down political opponents and support systems like-minded dictator.
As ridiculous as this acceptance of democracy sounds, it’s further proof that China and Russia are trying to wrest the moral high ground from electoral democracies through Orwellian gobbledygook.
“Note to the parties,” read statement“that Russia and China as world powers with rich cultural and historical heritage, long democratic traditions, based on thousands of years of development experience, broad support of the masses and consider the needs and interests of the citizens.”
Further, “It is up to the people to decide whether their State is a democratic state or not.” In other places, however, it warns “that democracy and human rights are not used to put pressure on other countries.”
The broad areas that the agreement covers are reeling.
The parties agreed to more closely link their economies through cooperation between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union. They will work together to develop the Arctic. They will strengthen coordination in multilateral institutions and combat climate change.
Back in June 2019, I Written in this space, “It’s time to start worrying more about what could become the most profound geopolitical shift in the post-Cold War years. China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin is strengthening the two countries’ strategic links even as longtime democratic allies cross the Atlantic further and further away.”
Perhaps the biggest mistake Western strategists have made since then is to separate China and Russia’s challenges to the post-Cold War international order as distinct and only loosely connected. loose. The Biden administration is even hoping to get Russia sorted out as it deals with China’s more pressing and enduring challenge.
Yet for all the historical animosity between the two nations and the significant differences that remain, perhaps never in their history have they come closer together. Never since World War II have the leading dictators of their times been so strategically aligned or so personally connected – at a time when both have their eyes on historical legacies. their.
As Putin considers his own options regarding Ukraine, his relationship with China could also help him manage any potential new sanctions through deep energy deals and other deals. financial agreement.
On Friday, China and Russia announced new oil and gas deals worth about $117.5 billion. Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, has announced a new agreement to supply 100 million tonnes of crude oil through Kazakhstan to China’s state-owned CNPC over the next 10 years, while Gazprom has agreed to supply China 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year through a new pipeline. .
Economic figures cannot be denied: Last year’s trade between the two countries hit a record $147 billion, making China Russia’s largest trading partner. Western intelligence sources consider the time of maximum danger for Ukraine to be after February 20, the last day of the Olympics, which coincides with the end of the Olympic Games. major military exercises “Allied Resolve” in Belarus (that might mask invasion preparations). This is also a time when the ground and rivers of Ukraine are still frozen enough to allow heavy military equipment to move most efficiently.
Whatever Putin chooses in relation to Ukraine, however, this week’s joint statement highlights a tectonic shift in global relations that requires more creative, collaborative and lasting thinking. between the US and its partners.
The growing proximity between Russia and China has increased both countries’ advantages at a time when their leaders believe they have momentum, that democracies have weakened, the United States is divided. politically divergent and where new technologies are empowering authoritarian leaders with survey and control. their society.
It’s tempting to poke holes in the 5,300-word joint statement, noting its contradictions and hypocrisy. What unites Russia and China remains largely their opposition to the United States. They have cunningly appropriated concepts that define American foreign policy—democracy, human rights, and economic development—even though their actions are entirely out of line with their rhetoric.
Without a stronger and more consistent push across democracies, expect more China-Russia push forward. It would be a profound mistake to view the Ukraine crisis in isolation at a time when Xi and Putin have given its unsettling context.
–Frederick Kempe is the President and CEO of the Atlantic Council.
