Essays by Eric Worrall
Does evidence of past extreme floods invalidate claims that climate change is making floods worse?
The image of the tree at the center of the fierce flood debate
A seemingly simple picture of a tree in rural Australia has sparked a fierce debate about climate change.
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November 26, 2022 – 3:40pmThis photo of a tree in South Australia has sparked a heated debate about climate change.
…
Much higher than the current flood level is a trace from 1956.
For some, it’s a smoking gun that climate change isn’t real.
“And what was climate change in 1956 caused by?” a joker.
“I wonder if they were talking about climate change in 73, 74 and 75,” another added.
Others point out an obvious problem.
“How tall was that tree in 1956?” a questioner.
…
As Australia continues to suffer a year of devastating floods, climate alarmists are turning to take advantage. Flannery’s Climate Council is leading the group, fueling the story that Climate change causes more floods – hilarious, launched a few years ago Climate Council founder Tim Flannery is pushing the narrative that we’ve entered an age of endless drought. “… even rain doesn’t really fill our dams and river systems …” – Remember to say that, Tim?
At the heart of this debate is the shameful evidence that previous floods are worse than recent ones.
Some alarmists appear to be claiming markers on South Australia’s “Tree of Knowledge” have moved due to tree growth, dismissing evidence that previous floods have been worse. But there are many inanimate historical flood signs, seemingly confirming that tree growth alone cannot account for higher past flood signatures. For example, markers on a riverside heritage building in the Queensland town of Maryborough (see top) show a spectacular flood in 1893, far exceeding any modern floods in the area.
Having said that, we cannot conclude whether climate change is affecting flooding in Australia based on this evidence, because that would be comparing apples to oranges. Since 1893, there have been important water works – irrigation canals, reservoirs and flood mitigation measures – on flood-prone rivers that flow through inhabited areas of Australia.
What about more scientific measurements?
Here is a slide from Professor Andy Pitman’s presentation in 2019. Pitman is Professor of Climate Extremes at the University of New South Wales. Pitman seems to admit climate science doesn’t know how CO2 is causing long-term flooding, if at all – though he later appears to retract, hinting that climate change is making things worse worse in an indirect and unspecified way.
Could volcanic activity be the cause of major flooding in Australia? Australia is located on the southwestern edge of the Ring of Fire. Although mainland Australia does not have many active volcanoes, there have been some spectacular eruptions in our vicinity, such as the famous eruption Krakatoa eruption of 1883or Tambora eruption of 1815believed to be the cause of the famine in the United States in 1816, “Year without summer”.
A remarkable volcanic eruption occurred in early 2022 – The eruption of Hunga Tonga. JoNova has published a fascinating comparison between the distribution of volcanic ash from the Hunga Tonga eruption in January 2022 and the 2022 precipitation anomaly across Australia.. Hunga Tonga is light on sulfates, but the explosion threw unprecedented amount of water entering the stratosphere. Where I live, on the southern edge of the volcanic debris distribution, we’ve had some spectacular sunsets over the past year.
The apparent overlap between precipitation anomalies and volcanic debris could be a coincidence – but the comparison is visually appealing.
So what can we conclude from all this? Unfortunately, the answer is not much.
I can’t tell you how climate change is or will be affecting rainfall in Australia. And passing by Lecture by Professor Pitman, no one else can. Having said this, even detecting a significant change would be a real challenge, given the extent of Australia’s climate change over a wide span of time.
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