“If McAuliffe wins by one or loses by one, is the message going to be any completely different?” requested Larry Sabato, who directs the College of Virginia Middle on Politics. “No — it’ll be a troublesome midterm.”
The prospect of 2021 and 2022 elections following established trendlines says little specifically about Youngkin, McAuliffe, Virginia, congressional Democrats, or Biden. They merely signify new forged members in a well-recognized political play.
All eyes on a brand new President
The identical tidal forces form the odd-year and midterm contests following a race for the White Home. Because the nation’s highest-profile public official, a brand new President rapidly turns into the main target of prevailing public discontents.
Biden’s latest struggles have dragged his approval rankings underwater, nationally and in Virginia. 4 years in the past, then-President Donald Trump was in even worse political form within the wake of his erratic habits, racial provocations, and try to repeal the Reasonably priced Care Act.
Comparable dynamics have produced victories for the occasion not occupying the White Home in 10 of the final 11 Virginia gubernatorial elections. They’ve produced US Home seat beneficial properties for the occasion not occupying the White Home in 9 of the final 11 midterm contests.
Throughout that interval, the sample supplied no clear steering in regards to the reelection prospects of the presidents concerned. 4 of them (Ronald Reagan, Invoice Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama) gained a second time period; three (Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and Trump) didn’t.
Sometimes, Virginia and midterm outcomes have diverged. That offers congressional Democrats purpose to hope for shifting political winds over the subsequent yr even when Youngkin wins on Tuesday.
In 1998, throughout Clinton’s presidency, Home Democrats gained seats regardless of the furor over his affair with Monica Lewinsky. In 2002, with the youthful Bush within the White Home, Home Republicans did the identical. Each outcomes adopted Virginia gubernatorial victories by the opposite occasion.
McAuliffe is aware of the one-of-eleven Virginia exception effectively. It was his 2013 win for governor after Obama’s 2012 reelection.
That didn’t presage a powerful 2014 Democratic midterm. Republicans went on to seize full management of Congress, permitting them to stymie Obama’s legislative agenda for the stability of his time period.
Partisan shifts
To some extent, McAuliffe’s 2013 victory mirrored Virginia’s long-term pattern towards his occasion because the swelling ranks of reasonable suburban voters gained clout on the expense of rural conservatives. After shedding the state in 10 straight presidential elections starting in 1968, Democrats have carried it within the final 4.
But an 18-point swing in election margins from presidential to gubernatorial contest would hardly be unprecedented. After Obama gained Virginia by 6 factors in 2008, Republican Bob McDonnell gained the governorship by 17 factors a yr later. After Reagan gained Virginia by 25 factors in 1984, Democrat Gerald Baliles gained the governorship by 10 the subsequent yr.
It does not take a lot electoral acumen to know that if the President stays at 42% subsequent November, nationwide Democratic strategists can have good purpose to worry the identical factor. McAuliffe’s destiny on Tuesday will not change that.
