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Which Country Or US State Will Be The First Country To Build A Renewable Energy Wall? – Is it good?


From MANHATTAN CONTRARIAN

/ Francis Menton

In the imaginations of affluent environmentalists who have awakened, the world has come to realize that it is on the verge of an existential climate crisis that can only be avoided by rapidly phasing out the use of fossil fuels. fossil fuel use and transformation of the world energy economy. “Renewables” like wind and solar. Electricity generation will be “decarbonized” at some point in the 2030s, and the world will reach “zero” carbon emissions around 2050.

In the real world, anyone with a keen eye can tell that this is not happening. The countries that make up the majority of the world’s population (China, India, the rest of Asia, and Africa) have offered a few tips to appease Western dumb elites, even as they continue to continue to build hundreds of new coal and other fossil fuel facilities. Even the US federal government, under the control of leftist Democrats, has had its ambitious “Green New Deal” plans stalled in Congress. Worldwide, fossil fuel use continues on a steady upward trajectory, as if the whole obsession with decarbonization didn’t exist.

But then there are some very affluent, small population jurisdictions that have convinced themselves they can save the planet by phasing out their own fossil fuel use and replacing wind power and energy. the sun, even as the rest of the world laughs at them behind their backs. Four jurisdictions stand out from the rest, two of which are European countries and two more US states: Germany, United Kingdom, California and New York. Collectively, these four places have a population of about 200 million people, or about 2.5% or the world’s population. Each of the four has announced draconian net-zero carbon emissions targets by mid-century, with even more stringent interim targets to eliminate carbon emissions from things like electricity generation and home heating.

All of these places, despite their wealth and seeming sophisticated, are embarking on their ambitious plans without ever conducting any kind of detailed technical study of how the systems work. their proposed new energy systems or their costs. Sure, the wind/solar grid can work with 100% natural gas backup, if you’re willing to ask the feepayer to pay the bill for two overlapping power generation systems and redundancy when you have it. There can be only one system. But “net-zero” emissions mean no more fossil fuel reserves. What’s the plan to keep the grid running 24/7 when coal and natural gas run out?

As these jurisdictions ramp up wind and solar power production, while phasing out coal and natural gas, sooner or later one of them is likely to encounter a “great wall.” ” – i.e. a situation where the power system stops working, or the price goes through the roof, or both, forcing drastic changes or even abandonment of the whole plan. But which jurisdiction will hit it first, and how will the “wall” emerge?

It’s time readers of the Manhattan Contrarian started betting on this issue. To kick things off, here are a few of my thoughts:

California. I’ve written several highly critical posts about California’s sky-high green energy plans, including a “zero-carbon” goal by 2045. See for example. here and here. However, California actually has a deep secret to help prevent it from hitting a renewable energy wall: it imports a very high percentage of its energy from neighboring states. Some of the imports are fossil fuels (coal and natural gas from Arizona and Nevada), and some are reliable fossil fuel-based sources (nuclear from Arizona and hydroelectricity from Oregon and Nevada). Washington).

Below are charts from the California Energy Commission of the “whole generation system” for the state for 2018 and Year 2020. In 2018, California imported about 32% of its electricity (91,000 GWH of a total of 285,000 GWH), and in 2020 about 30% (82,000 GWH of a total of 273,000 GWH). Based on data from EIACalifornia imports more electricity from other states than any other state (although there are some states that import more on a percentage basis). The ability to import large amounts of electricity from neighboring states means that California has a high level of insurance against its own energy madness. As long as Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Washington have some electricity for sale, outages can be averted even though California’s wind and solar generators can be completely quiet. You could say this is a “zero-emissions” electrical game fraud, but don’t count on the fact that California’s politicians have to be on par with voters.

New York. The transformation of New York’s energy system has been defined by something called the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act), which was passed in 2019. This state website provides a summary of the goals this Climate Act is said to have committed to us. Main goals:

  • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2050
  • 100% zero-emission electricity by 2040
  • 70% renewable energy by 2030
  • 9,000 MW of offshore wind by 2035
  • 3,000 MW of energy storage by 2030
  • 6,000 MW of solar energy by 2025

Here in New York City, City Council just this week passed a bill ban natural gas connections for buildings under seven stories starting in 2024 and for larger buildings starting in 2027. Mayor de Blasio, due to take office in his final week, is expected to will sign the bill.

But is there any reality to this? My prediction is that, rather than hitting some wall of broken energy or a sudden spike in prices, these absurd goals will be abandoned and forgotten as they get closer. and obviously they are unattainable. Prototypes were an issue involving a natural gas utility on Long Island, National Grid, in 2019. National Grid has exhausted natural gas capacity for new customers, particularly in Brooklyn and Queens. (parts of New York City are on Long Island and served by the National Grid). National Grid wanted to build a pipeline under New York Harbor to bring gas in, but Governor Cuomo blocked it on the grounds of environmental spoofing (supposedly a threat to water quality). As the existing pipelines reached capacity, National Grid began denying new natural gas connections. Within weeks, about 3,000 people were turned away, and the political counterattack began. Facing pressure from actual voters, Cuomo did not ease the pipeline, but instead threatened to pull NG’s license unless it found some other way to bring in the gas. NG started bringing in gas by truck (more expensive and more dangerous than piping), and as far as I know that’s what it continues to do. This is the account of the New York Times with more details.

I’m betting strongly that this scenario repeats itself in 2024 when the City Council’s supposed natural gas ban goes into effect. For now, the public is only vaguely aware of the upcoming ban and is not paying attention. But natural gas is far superior to electricity for home heating, especially in areas like this, where winter temperatures frequently reach into the 20s and below, the range where appliances the electric heat pump is basically not working. Homebuilders and renovators are acutely aware of this difference and will push back strongly when told they can’t get gas.

Similarly, the Climate Act’s targets for large numbers of wind turbines and solar arrays are completely unrealistic and no one has even begun to build any meaningful numbers of them. they. Furthermore, the recommended amount of storage is not even stated in the units involved (it should be MWH instead of MW), and the storage to last the necessary months has not even been invented. These goals are so absurd that, I predict, we will never even start so far before they are scrapped or ignored. Sure, we’ll spend a few tens of billions first and everyone’s energy bills will go up dramatically, but not to the point of being considered a crisis.

Germany and England. So I’m putting my money on one side or the other of Germany or England to be the first to hit some wall.

  • Compared to California, they don’t have any good Plan B when the new wind/solar system doesn’t work. Both have banned natural gas extraction within their borders, as have most of their near-European neighbors. That makes Russia the primary backup supplier and assumes that the Russkies are somewhat less reliable than Nevada and Arizona.
  • Compared to New York, Germany and the UK have so far taken the task of building wind turbines and solar arrays seriously. Germany has received a percentage of its electricity generation from wind and solar up to about 50% for some time periods (although it fell back 43% in the first three quarters of 2021 due to lack of wind). Germany’s new coalition government has big plans to ramp up construction of wind turbines, in particular continuing to phase out both nuclear fuel and all fossil fuels, only Russia can catch when it comes to wind turbines. they collapse. In the UK. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been completely obsessed with his “zero net” ambitions, even as low winds have pressured limited natural gas supplies and caused prices to spike.

Prolonged adverse weather (calm and overcast) could cause severe energy declines affecting one or both or Germany or Britain as soon as this winter.

Read the full article here.



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