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What to watch in the Pennsylvania and North Carolina primaries today

The hottest anticipated event so far in Main season 2022 will take place today in Pennsylvania, where voters of both parties will make key decisions in competitive races for Senate and governor.

The results should help clarify the mood of the country: Pennsylvania, a perennially rotating state, often signals what American voters are thinking.

And right now, a powerful centrifuge seems to be spinning the Pennsylvanians further toward the partisan edges. The state used to pride itself on electing centre-left or centre-right politicians to its highest posts. But at least on the Republican side, that history is of little value now.

The party’s high-octane primaries for governor and the Senate have become increasingly chaotic in their late stages. Leading candidates in favor of ending abortion rights; some have amplified former President Donald J. Trump’s lies about a stolen 2020 election; and all seek to convince voters to support their MAGA.

North Carolina is also holding primaries that will determine the fate of Representative Madison Cawthorn, who has been embroiled in scandals and animosity among Republicans, as well as whether support Mr. Trump’s could lift a 26-year-old former soccer player and political novice in a House GOP race.

Here’s what we’re tracking:

The poll shows the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary vote in a three-way statistical relationship between Dr. Mehmet Oz, a prominent physician; David McCormick, former hedge fund executive; and Kathy Barnettea far-right commentator who rose to prominence in the final days of the campaign through a compelling biography and sharp argument.

At a debate, Dr. Oz, who was win the approval of Mr. Trump, asked annoyed, “Why are people attacking me?” Ms. Barnette shot back: “Because you’re a libertarian.”

The Republican race, with five major contenders, has been dominated by nearly $40 million in television advertising spent by two men, Mr. Oz and Mr. McCormick, and their allies. Most of their TV spots were attacked against each other.

Ms Barnette, with only the tightest of budgets, sparked controversy by emphasizing her personal story – she revealed that she was born after her mother was raped at the age of 11, attracting voters against abortion — and by emerging as an alternative to Republicans who don’t believe that Dr. Oz or Mr. McCormick are true conservatives.

The race will test the strength of Trump’s endorsement, even more so than was the case in Ohio two weeks ago, where the former president pull JD Vancewho voted in third place, finished.

In Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump Dr. Oz .’s blessing met with a major outcry when he pointed out that the doctor was a “Hollywood libertarian” and friend of Oprah Winfrey. At a rally that Mr. Trump organized in Pennsylvania 11 days ago, boo hello mentions Mr. Oz’s name.

“MAGA does not belong to President Trump,” Ms. Barnette said at a debate. Will tell today.

The Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primaries have revealed that many Democratic voters, like their Republican counterparts, are increasingly eager for political brawls and rejecting those who do. consensus-seeking center.

That’s why John Fetterman, state lieutenant governor 6 foot-8 iconoclastic, has held the lead in the major vote for weeks. He appealed to Democrats with ranks and records who wanted term advancement – as well as a party they believed would appeal to working-class white voters. Over the weekend, he announced that he had a stroke on friday and is recovering.

Representative Conor Lamb, who has won three races in districts with a large number of Trump supporters, used that as a calling card to win the support of many elected Democrats in the election. state, who believe he will be the most elected in November. That argument was not accepted however, by Democrats ranking and filing.

The third candidate, Malcolm Kenyatta, a young leftist state congressman from Philadelphia, would be the first openly gay and black candidate if he were to stop being upset.

Two big issues will overshadow Pennsylvania’s open race for governor in the fall: voting access and the future of abortion, if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade.

In the Democratic primaries, Josh Shapiro, the state attorney general, is running. Mr. Shapiro has won numerous lawsuits filed by Trump supporters making fraudulent claims in the 2020 election. He said he would campaign on voting rights and defending access to abortion, which could could turn the race into a referendum on the issue.

If Roe is ousted and abortion becomes a state issue, Pennsylvania’s Republican-led legislature is expected to pass a bill with clear limitations. Mr. Shapiro has said he will veto it. The top four Republicans vying for the nomination all support the abortion ban.

Doug Mastriano, the clear Republican frontrunner in the polls, is a key figure in Mr. Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election results in Pennsylvania. He rented a bus to the January 6 protests in Washington and made false claims about voter fraud, a central plan in his bid to lead a state that will be at the center of the race. president in 2024. Mr. Trump weighed in on Saturday with a belated endorsement of Mr. Mastriano.

Fearing that a victory in Mastriano would disqualify a far-right candidate from being on the ticket, several prominent Republicans teamed up in the effort to Stop Mastriano after Lou Barletta, a former congressman comes in second in most polls.

The other main contenders in the race are Bill McSwain, a former US attorney, and Dave White, a businessman.

In North Carolina, the Republican primary for the Senate is the one that stands out the most, though most eyes may be elsewhere: on whether controversial Representative Madison Cawthorn explodes. , 26, get reform in his county in the far west of the state.

Number to keep in mind is 30: The top finisher in the North Carolina primaries must obtain a majority of more than 30% of the vote or face a second-place candidate.

Mr. Cawthorn, who had seven challengers, made the news for all the wrong reasons: because own a gun in an airport (again), cho driving with a revoked license (again) and for being rebuked by Republican leaders in the House for his comments suggesting that lawmakers used cocaine and organized orgasms.

However, it remains unclear whether these antics will allow any of his opponents, most likely State Senator Chuck Edwards, to be forced to flee. Cawthorn remains a popular figure of the national MAGA with Mr. Trump’s endorsement.

In the race for the Senate, for an open seat, Representative Ted Budd, also endorsed by Mr. Trump, created a late surgeseems to surpass former Governor Pat McCrory.

Mr. McCrory, whose conservative credentials include signing The infamous 2016 “bathroom bill” Targeting transgender people – and sparking a backlash against his state – is no longer conservative enough for some Republicans. The Anti-Tax Club for Growth has dumped millions of dollars in offensive television commercials over his head, accusing him of being “a freeloader”.

The presumed Democratic candidate is Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court.

The power of Mr. Trump’s endorsement will also be tested in the GOP’s primary vote for a new North Carolina congressional district, the 13th district, which is south of Raleigh and is likely to be a competing House seat. state only in the fall.

The former president threw his weight behind a former college football player, Bo Hines, 26 years old, who is also being endorsed by the political committee of the Club for Growth. His main rival, Kelly Daughtry, is the daughter of a former majority leader of the state. Many Republican officials in the state are pulling for Ms. Daughtry. Sound familiar?

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