What Recent History Suggests When Sizing Up the Breeders’ Cup Sprint Horses

The Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint is arguably probably the most prestigious filth dash race on this planet. It carries a handbag of $2 million and has propelled the final seven winners and 10 of the final 11 winners to year-end champion honors because the Eclipse Award winner within the male sprinter division.

Dust sprints are the bread and butter of U.S. racing from coast to coast, so it’s no shock that horses bred and primarily based in North America have dominated this three-quarter-mile race to the tune of 37 wins in 38 editions. Solely Sheikh Albadou, who was bred in Nice Britain and campaigned in Europe, in 1991 was in a position to ship into the U.S. and win our premier filth dash.

Yearly, I look via the final 20 editions of this race for historic traits and fascinating nuggets that is perhaps useful when handicapping the Dash. I then attempt to construct a profile of the winner to match with this yr’s contenders.

The outcomes for the primary three years have been very sturdy, however final yr Whitmore bucked most of the traits when he rallied for an upset at large odds, so let’s begin there with some data on how favorites and longshots have fared within the Breeders’ Cup Dash, which shall be held Nov. 6 at Del Mar.

Any Shot for a Huge Payday?

In 38 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Dash the typical payout for a $2 win ticket on the victor has been $20.01. Traditionally, eight of the 14 different races produce higher payouts on common, so it’s not one of the best spot to search around for a longshot. However upsets do occur within the Dash and it has been very powerful to win as the favourite from 2001 to 2020.

• Solely 4 instances within the final 20 years was the Breeders’ Cup Dash was received by the favourite.
• Seven Breeders’ Cup Dash winners from 2001 via 2020 lit up the toteboard at double-digit odds, and there have been eight winners that paid greater than $20 on a $2 win guess.
• The common odds for the winner during the last 20 years has been 8.925-1 with a median of 5.05-1 odds.
• Dancing in Silks, at 25.30-1 odds, is the most important longshot throughout the 20-year span, whereas Cajun Beat received at 22.80-1 in 2003 and Work All Week prevailed at 19.10-1 for 3 winners that returned $40 or extra for a $2 guess.
• 4 of the seven double-digit winners received their last prep and two others ran second by a size or much less, so preserve an eye fixed out for an ignored contender in good kind which may not have the title recognition of a number of the others.
• Whitmore was a little bit of an outlier final yr as he completed fourth in his last prep race on the principle monitor that hosted the Breeders’ Cup however bounced again to run a profession race at 18.40-1 odds within the 2020 Dash. How usually do you see a $36.80 winner draw back to win a serious race by 3 ¼ lengths?!
• Whereas there may be motive for some optimism because it pertains to longshots within the Dash, it’s been a little bit of an all-or-nothing race as 10 winners have been lower than 5-1 odds with one other (Huge Drama in 2010) prevailing at 5.20-1.
• In truth, earlier than Whitmore pulled off his stunner final yr at Keeneland, the earlier 5 Dash winners have been pretty apparent win candidates at odds starting from 8-5 (Runhappy, 2015) to 4.90-1 (Roy H, 2017).

Rattling, They’re Good

Trying on the final 20 editions of this race, the one side that appears most vital is that the winners of the Breeders’ Cup Dash have been exceptionally constant.

• Eighteen of the final 20 Dash winners ran third or higher of their last prep race with 17 of them second or higher.
• 13 of the final 20 Dash winners entered off a victory of their last prep race, together with seven in a row earlier than Whitmore final yr halted that streak.
• The 2 Dash winners who entered the Breeders’ Cup off an unplaced end each had confirmed monitor data: Whitmore, final yr, was a six-time graded stakes winner with a Grade 1 victory on his résumé in addition to a runner-up end within the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Dash; and Midnight Lute, who missed virtually all of his 2008 season after profitable the Dash in 2007 and ran 10^th in his solely begin earlier than he scored a repeat victory.
• Extending again past the ultimate prep, the numbers are much more illuminating. From June of their respective yr via the Breeders’ Cup (not counting the precise World Championships race), eventual Breeders’ Cup Dash winners amassed 31 wins from 54 begins with a outstanding 49 top-three finishes.
• For these counting at dwelling, that’s a 57.4% win share from Breeders’ Cup Dash winners from June via their last prep race and a 91% price for top-three finishes. Look for lots of 1s, 2s, and 3s prior to now performances.

What’s the Finest Working Model for the Dash?

Tactical velocity is extraordinarily precious in all filth races and significantly filth sprints, so it’s no shock that high-cruising velocity has been a standard trait among the many final 20 winners. Horses preferring to rally from nicely off the tempo have loved far much less success.

• The primary pattern right here is that the Dash traditionally has been powerful for deep closers, though beloved fan-favorite Whitmore did his greatest to shake up a bunch of those traits along with his upset win at Keeneland final November.
• Of the final 20 Breeders’ Cup Dash winners, solely Midnight Lute in 2007 and 2008 profiled as a real deep nearer getting into the race. I labeled Whitmore (who was 7 years previous when he received) as a better/stalker as a result of as he received older he tended to race a bit nearer to the tempo. However he most likely belongs on this nearer class as he was 10^th after the opening quarter-mile final yr and ninth after a half-mile. So … we’ll go together with three closers from the final 20 editions.
• Eleven of the final 20 winners entered the race as pacesetters or press-the-pace varieties, and in case you embrace two winners who match a stalker/presser profile, the quantity rises to 13.
• Common place after the opening quarter-mile was 4.15 (primarily fourth) with a median place on the first level of name of fourth. The common winner was inside 2 ¾ lengths of the lead with the median at 1 ½ lengths again after a quarter-mile.
• Common working place after a half-mile was 3.3, so on common the winner was between third and fourth with a quarter-mile remaining; the median was third. On common, the winner was just a little greater than 1 ½ lengths again at this level within the race and the median was 1 ¼ lengths again of the winner on the quarter-pole. Solely 5 of the final 20 Breeders’ Cup Dash winners have been in entrance on the quarter-pole.
• Nevertheless, the winner of this race during the last 20 editions usually didn’t depart an excessive amount of to do within the stretch. By each common and median, the winners have been a head behind the chief on the eighth pole.
• 9 of the 20 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Dash had taken the lead by the eighth pole and none was worse than third.
• The Dash itself ceaselessly shapes up a bit in another way for the winners, forcing them out of their most popular working type, which is smart as a result of many sprinters boast excessive cruising velocity. Typically horses who raced on or close to the lead in prep races have been pressured to drop again a bit farther than typical within the Dash.

Odds and Ends

Earlier than we get to this yr’s runners and the way they match the profile of a Breeders’ Cup Dash winner, there are a number of different helpful and/or fascinating nuggets I plucked from the final 20 years of Breeders’ Cup Dash knowledge.

• Don’t rule out the 3-year-olds taking up older horses within the Dash. Six instances within the final 20 years, a 3-year-old received the race and there was worth there with common profitable odds of 10.60-1 and a median of 10.75-1. 4 of the six entered off a win in a graded stakes and the opposite two ran second of their last prep.
• In case you are searching for a baseline velocity determine, the typical profitable Equibase Velocity Determine for the Breeders’ Cup Dash during the last 20 years has been 118.2 with a median of 118.5, so that you wish to make sure you’ve landed on a contender who’s inside putting vary of that kind of quantity.
• The common margin of victory has been barely lower than 1 ½ lengths (1.45) with a median of 1.125 (between a size and 1 ¼ lengths). Seven editions have been determined by a half-length or much less with 4 ending with a profitable margin of a neck or much less.
• The common variety of lifetime begins earlier than the Breeders’ Cup for Dash winners during the last 20 years is 14.2 with a median of 13. For the yr of their Dash win, winners averaged 5.05 races with 2.7 wins whereas the median was additionally 5 begins however with three wins.
• Fifteen of the 20 winners have been bred in Kentucky. Three others have been California-breds with one Florida-bred (Huge Drama, 2010) and one Illinois-bred (Work All Week, 2014).

Who Are the Main Candidates for the 2021 Dash?

This yr, it appears to be like like two of the three possible favorites will come from the 3-year-old division: Jackie’s Warrior and Dr. Schivel. Three-year-olds have received six of the final 20 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Dash, in order that’s an apparent place to start out.

I count on Jackie’s Warrior to be a reasonably heavy favourite having received three straight graded stakes following a runner-up end by a neck June 5 at Belmont Park within the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Nassau County Development Agency. He’s a Grade 1 winner in absolute peak kind who has received from on the tempo and simply off the tempo, so he actually couldn’t match the profile of a Breeders’ Cup Dash winner any higher. In fact, the expertise within the race shall be considerably harder than the weak four-horse area he confronted when profitable the Grade 2 Gallant Bob Stakes Sept. 25 at Parx Racing and favorites have solely received at a 20% clip during the last 20 years. Jackie’s Warrior shall be powerful, however I don’t view him as a lock by any stretch.

In truth, I believe I would lean towards Dr. Schivel, who is also in nice kind with three wins in as many begins since June and figures to hold rather more interesting odds. The three-year-old Violence colt received the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes at this monitor and distance in July when rallying from sixth and led from begin to end most lately in profitable the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes. He’s received 5 straight races and is 3-for-3 lifetime at Del Mar, plus he’s versatile sufficient to set the tempo, press the tempo, or stalk the tempo.

One other 3-year-old who may outrun his odds within the Dash is Following Sea. He’s received a win, one second, and one third in three begins since June, which features a second through disqualification within the Grade 1, 1 1/8-mile TVG.com Haskell Stakes. He jogs my memory just a little little bit of 2003 Dash winner Cajun Beat, who has tried longer distances after which confirmed enchancment when chopping again in distance and actually got here on within the second half of the yr. Following Sea returned to sprinting for the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes in August at Saratoga and was a well-beaten third behind Jackie’s Warrior and Life Is Good, however he took a big step ahead within the Grade 2 Vosburgh Stakes when he led from begin to end in a 4 ¾-length runaway. I believe he’s higher ready on this rematch with Jackie’s Warrior and the value shall be proper.

Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes winner Special Reserve very seemingly will vie with Dr. Schivel for the second betting selection behind Jackie’s Warrior and for good motive. He received 5 of seven begins on the yr with a pair of seconds. The 5-year-old Midshipman gelding has two stakes wins and a runner-up end by a half-length within the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap in three begins since July. He additionally boasts tactical velocity as a sprinter who does his greatest work urgent the tempo. He’s actually good proper now – his final 4 races are the quickest of his profession.

One other upset contender to think about primarily based on historic indicators is Aloha West, who most lately was second by a subsequent to Particular Reserve within the Phoenix Stakes. Whereas he does normally desire to return from off the tempo, he’s additionally received utilizing a stalking journey and he may benefit from what figures to be a swift tempo. He’s posted two wins and a second in his final three races, however he’s additionally by no means received a stakes race so I’m leaning towards utilizing him to boost my exacta and trifecta tickets slightly than on prime as a win contender.