The Week That Was: 2022-05-28 (May 28, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Any man can make a mistake; only a fool keeps making the same one.”
— Cicero
Number of the Week: 25% of land area
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: In part 4 of his series on The Big 5 Natural Causes of Climate Change, Jim Steele discusses human landscape changes and that science organizations fail to separate the influences of these changes from their reported surface temperature trends, largely blaming increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for increases due to changes in landscapes. The validity of the entire surface temperature record is highly doubtful. Steele gives clear examples of how the urban heat island effect changes temperatures.
Meteorologist Joe D’Aleo incorporates the work of the late Nils Axil Mörner and the late Tom Wysmuller to point out the absurdity of the claims that sea level rise, which has been roughly constant for thousands of years, is accelerating. Ron Clutz gives examples of the rise from melting ice following the last glacial maximum some 18,000 to 20,000 years ago. It appears that those claiming concern for saving the planet have no concern for its history.
Econometrician Ross McKitrick exposed the logical failings in the use of Ordinary Least Squares in attributing extreme weather events to increasing CO2. Literally, thousands of papers were published following this technique that was based on one erroneous paper, a classic example of bandwagon science so common to climate studies. Now, McKitrick exposes another deficient technique used to falsely attribute weather events to CO2: total least squares (TLS) or multivariate orthogonal regression. It seems that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers cannot find a competent statistician to review their work.
Meanwhile, NOAA has released another absurd index used to claim, “Greenhouse gas pollution trapping almost 50 percent more heat than 30 years ago.” Without greenhouse gases it is doubtful that humanity would exist, the land masses would go into a deep freeze at night, stopping all growth. Now, NOAA claims that the warming influence of these gases on temperatures has increased by about 50% in the last 30 years? The lack of physical evidence is glaring.
Last week, TWTW discussed the Earth’s Energy Budget. This produced several comments from readers including one asking why Howard Hayden’s essays in Basic Climate Physics did not include the heat energy internal to the earth? This TWTW will address the reason.
The World Economic Forum at Davos is over. Wealthy potentates had the opportunity to express the need for democracies to abandon their system of government and give economic power to the select few. Eduard Harinck of CLINTEL sent TWTW a copy of the agenda for the wealthy. A few points are discussed below.
Donn Dears concludes his straightforward energy analysis of achieving the myth of net zero with: “Neither wind, nuclear nor PV solar, can achieve net-zero carbon, but could a combination of the three achieve net-zero carbon by 2050?” And Francis Menton addresses an interdisciplinary MIT Study of how energy storage can achieve net zero.
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Changing Landscapes: In “The Big 5 Causes of Natural Climate Change, Part 4 Landscape Changes” ecologist Jim Steele clearly explains how humans are causing increases in local and regional temperatures, largely by draining water. He states:
“Less vegetation and bare desert soils heat surfaces to greater extremes. You have likely experienced a similar effect when walking barefoot in the summer on a cool grassy surface and then, stepped onto burning asphalt pavement.
“Dry regions also produce fewer clouds allowing greater solar heating than elsewhere.
“The same amount of energy can raise the temperatures of dry surfaces much more than moist surfaces. And dark soils, reflect less and so absorb more solar energy than other surfaces
“Similarly, urban heat islands form in part because urban development has created desert-like conditions.
“Because urban heat islands amplify every heat wave and set new records, people living in urban centers are more easily seduced into accepting climate crisis narratives than people living in cooler rural regions.
“The temperature of the air is determined by the temperature of the earth’s surfaces.
“1. The sun primarily heats the earth’s surface, not the air
“2. The air then gets heated by contact with the earth’s heated surface.
And that warmed air rises and warms the atmosphere above [in general, the greenhouse effect is greater than this process.]
“3. At higher altitudes, the rising air radiates heat back to space and cools and sinks back to the surface [Actually it is the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that radiate heat to space.]
“Any large- or small-scale conversions of ecosystems from forests to grasslands or grasslands to deserts increases the earth’s skin surface temperatures. [Boldface added]
“With the advent of the satellite era, we now have global coverage of the earth’s skin surface. But skin surface temperatures can be as much as 30 degrees Celsius hotter than conventional air temperatures measured 5 feet above the surface. This map of the earth’s land surface maximum temperatures illustrates how solar heating and landscapes combine to determine skin temperatures. [Map is not presented here.]
“As expected, the coldest regions are at the poles represented in dark blue. But surprisingly for most people, the hottest maximum temperatures are not recorded at the equator, but elsewhere due to landscape effects.”
Steele gives a graph of the estimates of annual maximum daytime surface temperatures for various types of ecosystems, then goes on to explain:
“Forest ecosystems cover the greatest area. The northern forest across Canada and Eurasia experience maximum temperatures centered around 20 degrees Celsius or 68 degrees Fahrenheit and the equatorial forests reach maximums centered around 30 Celsius or about 86 Fahrenheit.
“Grasslands typically experience higher maximum temperatures, spanning 30 to 50 degrees Celsius. The prairies of north America illustrated in yellow are warmer than north Americas eastern forests but cooler than the western deserts
“The hottest maximum temperatures are recorded in the deserts spanning 45 to 70 degrees Celsius. Death Valley’s 56.7 Celsius record air temperature was observed in 1913. In 1922, 57.8 degrees Celsius was recorded in the desert of Libya breaking the Death Valley record.
“However, because these extreme air temperatures happened 100 years ago and conflict with CO2 climate narratives, some researchers speculated that Libya’s temperature must have been incorrectly recorded, so successfully lobbied to remove it from the record books. There have been ongoing similar attempts to erase Death Valley’s record temperature. Clearly those who control the present narratives, control the past. [Boldface added]
“Now with satellites measuring skin surfaces, the record hottest skin surface temperature of 70.7 Celsius (about 160 Fahrenheit) was recorded in 2005 in Iran’s Lut Desert, but it’s not clear what the air temperature would have been.
“The reason different ecosystems experience such different temperatures, even at the same latitude, is because of moisture.” [Boldface added]
Steele gives a graph comparing the amount of energy required to raise the temperature of various types of surfaces by 1°C and states:
“The same amount of energy that increases wet soil by one degree raises dry soil by 2 degrees
“Likewise, that same amount of energy would raise asphalt by 2 degrees. In addition, asphalt and other dark surfaces absorb more energy.
“Finally, 2200 times more energy is required to evaporate one gram of water without changing the temperature. Without moisture to evaporate, that energy instead causes surface temperatures to rise.” [Boldface added]
Steele then describes changes in surfaces that cause temperatures to increase such as: 1) the loss of wetlands worldwide; 2) overgrazing of grasslands; 3) invasive species of grasses; and 4) urban heat islands. He states:
“To what degree these landscape changes bias the global average temperature upwards, depends on the proximity to any landscape changes, of the weather stations that contribute to that average,
“As of 2011, the World Meteorological Organization oversees 11,119 weather stations, and to easily operate them these stations are associated with human habitat, not wilderness. The United States has the densest coverage and the most stations operating for 75 years or more (represented by red dots) [not shown here], the minimum time span needed to assess natural vs human climate changes.
“For the rest of the globe, that coverage averages out to just one station for each area the size of the state of Connecticut. And that one weather station is assumed to represent all temperatures in the surrounding 5,000 square miles.
“Urban areas represent less than 1% of the entire land surface of earth. However, 27% of the weather stations used to calculate climate change are in urban areas.
“Urban heat islands are typically 2 to 3 degrees Celsius, or 5 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than surrounding, well-vegetated suburban and rural regions. Urban heat islands are typically created by reducing vegetation and removing rainfall into storm drains while paving over moist soils and wetlands with asphalt and concrete.” [Boldface added]
Steele goes into detail on the urban heat island effect which is well established. Yet, government entities that report surface temperature trends fail to adjust important changes to landscapes and blame CO2 for increasing temperatures. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Rebutting NOAA: Using his work and the work of the late Nils Axil Mörner and the late Tom Wysmuller, meteorologist Joseph D’Aleo rebuts the NOAA Ocean Service report of 2022. According to the report:
“The Next 30 Years of Sea Level Rise ‘Sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 – 12 inches (0.25 – 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 – 2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 – 2020). Sea level rise will vary regionally along U.S. coasts because of changes in both land and ocean height.’”
D’Aleo “REBUTTAL This claim is demonstrably false. It really hinges on this statement: “Tide gauges and satellites agree with the model projections.” The models project a rapid acceleration of sea level rise over the next 30 to 70 years. So, it must be true. However, while the models may project acceleration, the tide gauges clearly do not.
“All data from tide gauges in areas where land is not rising or sinking show instead a steady linear and unchanging sea level rate of rise near 4 inches/century, with variations due to gravitational factors. It is true that where the land is sinking as it is in the Tidewater area of Virginia and the Mississippi Delta region, sea levels will appear to rise faster but no changes in CO2 emissions would change that. The implication that measured, validated, and verified Tide Gauge data support this conclusion remains simply false.” [Boldface added]
D’Aleo goes into considerable detail explaining why the NOAA report is false. These include adjusting data to show an increase in the rise when the unadjusted data does not. As discussed in last week’s TWTW, similar false claims on increasing sea level rise were made in the” State of the Global Climate 2021” report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Are we to believe that such false claims are accidental? See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Biased and Unstable: Climate Dynamics published an article by Ross McKitrick challenging the use of total least squares in detecting a human influence in climate changes. The abstract reads:
“Total least squares (TLS) or multivariate orthogonal regression is widely used as a remedy for attenuation bias in climate signal detection or ‘optimal fingerprinting’ regression. But under some circumstances it overcorrects and imparts an upward bias, as well as generating extremely unstable and imprecise coefficient estimates. While there has been increasing attention paid recently to the validity of TLS-based confidence intervals, there has been no corresponding examination of coefficient bias problems. This note explains why they are pertinent and presents a Monte Carlo simulation to illustrate the hazards of using TLS in a signal detection application without testing whether the modeling context makes it a suitable choice. TLS is not automatically preferred over OLS [ordinary least squares] even when explanatory variables are believed to contain random errors. Notably it can be sufficiently biased to cause false positives when explanatory signals are negatively correlated, and the bias gets worse as the signal-noise ratio on the explanatory variables rises. Additionally, TLS should not be used on its own for climate signal detection inferences since if the no-signal null is true, TLS is generally inconsistent whereas OLS attenuation bias disappears.”
The text of the paper brings up established papers on the subject and McKitrick writes:
Claims about the validity of TLS coefficient estimates, especially consistency and unbiasedness, typically require strong assumptions about unobservable error terms. As noted in Carroll and Ruppert (1996) in a univariate orthogonal regression there are five sufficient statistics available in the sample and six parameters to estimate, so identification of the slope parameter b requires a normalizing assumption on the ratio of the unknown error variances.
Here we see the common problem in climate studies discussed by Christopher Essex in his essay “Can Computer Models Predict Climate?” (April 23, TWTW). There are more unknowns than independent, defining equations. This is the closure problem, there is no unique solution, just guesses. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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A Race to the Bottom? The NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory issued a report “NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI). It goes through the various IPCC definitions using 1750 as the start of the baseline, to estimate a direct climate forcing (radiative forcing). As last week’s TWTW described, famine was a common characteristic in the 1700 and 1800s. Now, this era is considered normal? The Annual Greenhouse Gas Index includes carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and various chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). It did not include water vapor, the dominant greenhouse gas.
The NOAA report states:
“The atmospheric abundance and radiative forcing of the three main long-lived greenhouse gases continue to increase in the atmosphere. While the combined radiative forcing of these and all the other long-lived, well-mixed greenhouse gases included in the AGGI rose 49% from 1990 to 2021 (by ~1.06 watts m-2), CO2 has accounted for about 80% of this increase (~0.85 watts m-2), which makes it by far the biggest contributor to increases in climate forcing since 1990.”
The
This is classic lying with statistics. Ignore all the big stuff—the total greenhouse effect of about 159 W/m2—so now NOAA makes the minuscule look huge.
It was an increase in water vapor which the 1979 Charney report claimed would cause a warming of 3°C plus or minus 1.5°C which was carried forward by the IPCC. And it was the “hot spot” over the tropics from the release of latent heat from condensing water vapor presented in the second IPCC assessment report (AR2, 1995) that was used to justify the IPCC and the push for a climate treaty. The hot spot was a feature of the models, but non-existent in the data. Now we have a push for a treaty for no cause? A climate crisis without a cause? See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and https://enthusiasmscepticismscience.wordpress.com/2015/11/21/remembering-madrid-95-a-meeting-that-changed-the-world-2/
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Additions and Corrections: One TWTW reader asked why the essays in Basic Climate Physics don’t include the energy generated internal to the earth that is given off to space. It is a matter of orders of magnitude, powers of ten. The abstract of a paper in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate explains the issue:
“The Sun is Earth’s primary source of energy. In this paper, we compare the magnitude of the Sun to all other external (to the atmosphere) energy sources. These external sources were previously identified in Sellers (1965); here, we quantify and update them. These external sources provide a total energy to the Earth that is more than 3700 times smaller than that provided by the Sun, a vast majority of which is provided by heat from the Earth’s interior. After accounting for the fact that 71% of incident solar radiation is deposited into the earth system, the Sun provides a total energy to Earth that is still more than 2600 times larger than the sum of all other external sources.” See link under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Another Lobbying Group: The 2022 World Economic Forum ended. It was a pompous gabfest of the wealthy signifying nothing. Eduard Harinck of CLINTEL sent TWTW a copy of the agenda and one of its reports: “Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2022.” Part seven of the Executive Summary states:
The window of opportunity to prevent the worst consequences of climate change is closing fast. It is essential to make the energy transition robust by building the necessary enablers that will keep the transition going if the economic and energy security context deteriorates. With the world in the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s, it is critically important to speed up action to put mankind on the path to net-zero emissions while addressing energy security needs. [Boldface in original.]
These wealthy potentates are trying to force upon the world’s public an inefficient, unreliable, expensive form of energy. They should convince the leaders of China first. China is the largest emitter of CO2. See link under Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science.
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Dream World: Energy professional Donn Dears addresses the dream world promised by solar promoters in Net-Zero Reality Check #3. He states that at the current US rate of installation:
“… it will take 182 years to install all the PV solar capacity needed to achieve net-zero carbon using PV solar.
“Equally important, PV solar can’t generate electricity at night so a huge amount of storage capacity would also be needed. No battery yet produced can store large quantities of electricity for a week or two.”
In reality Check # 4 he explores the possibility of wind, solar and nuclear delivering all the electricity needed by 2050 and finds that at the current rate in the US none are capable of providing the electricity the US needs by 2050. The promoters of net zero in the administration are living in a dream world.
Further, Francis Menton examines the latest MIT interdisciplinary study on energy storage and concludes:
“Bottom line: I’m not trusting anybody’s so-called ‘model’ to prove that this gigantic energy transformation is going to work. Show me the demonstration project that actually works.
They won’t. Indeed, there is not even an attempt to put such a thing together, even as we hurtle down the road to ‘net zero’ without any idea how it is going to work.”
Some years ago, TWTW adopted this healthy skepticism for modern government-funded modeling. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Questioning Green Elsewhere.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. The entire Biden Administration won in 2021, so individuals in it are still eligible.
The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason the person is qualified for the honor to [email protected]. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on August 14 to 16 at the South Point Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. Registration: https://aaps.wufoo.com/forms/qb79fo31o62uh1/; Hotel: https://be.synxis.com/?adult=1&arrive=2022-08-14&chain=6903&child=0¤cy=USD&depart=2022-08-15&group=DOC0811&hotel=11548&level=hotel&locale=en-US&rooms=1
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Number of the Week: 25% of land area. It is impossible to know the maximum extent and thickness of the last major glaciation which ended 18,000 to 20,000 years ago. The USGS reports:
“The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) occurred about 20,000 years ago, during the last phase of the Pleistocene epoch. At that time, global sea level was more than 400 feet lower than it is today, and glaciers covered approximately:
8% of Earth’s surface
25% of Earth’s land area”
“Beginning about 15,000 years ago, continental glaciers retreated, and sea level began to rise. Sea level reached its current height about 8,000 years ago and has fluctuated ever since.
“Today, glaciers cover approximately:
“3% of Earth’s surface
11% of Earth’s land area”
In addressing the false claims in “The State of the Global Climate” by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Ron Clutz makes a solid estimate based on generally accepted reports that the Laurentide ice sheet was centered over western Hudson Bay to a height up to 3300 meters (10,500 feet). See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-does-present-glacier-extent-and-sea-level-compare-extent-glaciers-and-global-sea-level#:~:text=The%20Last%20Glacial%20Maximum%20(LGM)%20occurred%20about%2020%2C000%20years%20ago,25%25%20of%20Earth’s%20land%20area
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
The Big 5 Natural Causes of Climate Change: part 4 Landscape Changes
By Jim Steele, A Walk On the Natural Side, Mar 23, 2022
Transcript: https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2022/05/the-big-5-causes-of-natural-climate.html
Video: https://youtu.be/ja6ZRgntPsg
Sea Level Acceleration – That Other Big Lie
By Joseph D’Aleo, Nils Axil Morner and Tom Wysmuller, ICECAP, May 22, 2022
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/sea_level_acceleration_that_other_big_lie/
Upward Bias in Optimal Fingerprinting from Use of TLS
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, May 26, 2022
https://www.rossmckitrick.com/
Link to paper: On the choice of TLS versus OLS in climate signal detection regression
By Ross McKitrick, Climate Dynamics, May 23, 2022
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06315-z
MIT Weighs In On Energy Storage
By Francis Menton, May 26, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-5-26-mit-weighs-in-on-energy-storage
Link to report: “The Future of Energy Storage: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study.”
By Robert Armstrong, Department of Chemical Engineering, et al., MIT, 2022
https://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/The-Future-of-Energy-Storage.pdf?mc_cid=16bb94ba85&mc_eid=27d4180811&utm_campaign=16bb94ba85-AUTOMATION_Welcome_Message_1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=The%20Future%20of%20Energy%20Storage&utm_term=0_2bb1b15012-16bb94ba85-76074462
Net-Zero, Reality Check #4
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 27, 2022
Radio Waves Over UN False Alarms
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, May 24, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy
Greenhouse gas pollution trapping almost 50 percent more heat than 30 years ago
By Rachel Fraazin, The Hill, May 23, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire.]
Link to: NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI)
By NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, R/GMD, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305-3328
Contact: [email protected]
https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2022
By Staff, World Economic Forum, May 11, 2022 [H/t Eduard Harinck]
https://www.weforum.org/reports/fostering-effective-energy-transition-2022/in-full/executive-summary-7cf525a731
Questioning the Orthodoxy
GFS Analysis Shows Zero Warming: For Every Hot-Spot On The Planet, There’s Also Been A Cold-Spot
By Die kalte Sonne, Trans. by P Gosselin, Via No Tricks Zone, May 22, 2022
Energy and Environmental Review: May 23, 2022
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, May 23, 2022
After Paris!
COP27 Sharm El-Sheikh to Open Early
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 25, 2022
Change in US Administrations
NEPA Revisions Would Undercut Infrastructure Projects
By Krisztina Pusok, Real Clear Energy, May 23, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/05/23/nepa_revisions_would_undercut_infrastructure_projects_833832.html
Biden praises high gas prices as part of ‘incredible transition’
By Callie Patteson, New York Post, May 23, 2022
https://nypost.com/2022/05/23/biden-praises-gas-prices-as-part-of-incredible-transition/?mc_cid=33bb78c805&mc_eid=4961da7cb1
Seeking a Common Ground
Where does Earth’s atmosphere get its energy?
By Andrew C. Kren, et al. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, Mar 20, 2017
https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2017/01/swsc160018/swsc160018.html#:~:text=The%20Earth%20is%20constantly%20emitting,the%20atmosphere%20and%20global%20oceans.
Artificial Intelligence and the Limits of Science
By David Weinberger, American Thinker, May 21, 2022
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/05/artificial_intelligence_and_the_limits_of_science.html
Science, Policy, and Evidence
The Fragility Of P-Values
By Chuck Dinerstein, MD, ACSH, May 16, 2022
https://www.acsh.org/news/2022/05/16/fragility-p-values-16286
[SEPP Comment: P values alone should not be a deciding index in statistical studies with few participants.]
Scoop: Biden officials in Saudi Arabia for talks on oil, planned visit
By Barak Ravid, Axios, May 25, 2022
https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/biden-officials-saudi-arabia-talks-oil-visit-israel-egypt
[SEPP Comment: Why would Saudi Arabia help an administration that condemned their major export six months ago at COP-26?]
Measurement Issues — Surface
Weather or not
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 25, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
More trouble in the tropical troposphere
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 25, 2022
Changing Weather
Scientists Develop Method for Seasonal Prediction of Wildfires in the US West
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 25, 2022
Link to paper: Winter and spring climate explains a large portion of interannual variability and trend in western U.S. summer fire burned area
By Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig et al Environmental. Research. Letters, 2022
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6886/pdf
From the abstract: “Among the antecedent climate predictors, vapor pressure deficit averaged over winter and spring plays the most critical role in predicting summer fire burned area. Spring snow drought area is found to be an important antecedent predictor for summer burned area over snow-reliant regions in the nonlinear statistical modeling framework used in this analysis.”
Wildfire Forecast for the Summer
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 24, 2022
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/05/wildfire-forecast-for-summer.html
“Actual data and historical wildfire information suggest a very benign local fire season in and near Washington State. Could we have a big fire if the meteorological conditions come together later this summer? Yes. But it is clear that the meteorological situation is not favorable for wildfire.”
[SEPP Comment: Confronting propagandists.]
Counting Wettest Days, Half Way Down the East Coast of Australia
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, May 27, 2022
Tornado Outbreak Of May 27, 1896
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 27, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/05/tornado-outbreak-of-may-27-1896/
May 26, 1917, Tornado Outbreak
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 26, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/05/may-26-1917-tornado-outbreak/
“’383 people were killed over an 8-day period between May 25th and June 1st (1917.) At least 73 tornadoes occurred across the Midwest and Southeast U.S. during this time, with 15 that were classified as violent (F4 or F5 strength).’”
Desperate Situation in Ukraine [1922]
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 26, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/05/desperate-situation-in-ukraine/
[SEPP Comment: Can the extreme weather and Arctic melting be blamed on solar storms?]
NY Times 1976: “Cool periods produce greater climatic instability”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 27, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/05/ny-times-1976-cool-periods-produce-greater-climatic-instability/
Changing Seas
CDN by the Sea: Talcuhuano, Chile
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 25, 2022
A Warmer Climate, Less Sea Ice, Sea Levels 5-16 Meters Higher Than Today An ‘Optimum’ For Penguins
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 26, 2022
The occupation history of the longest-dwelling Adélie penguin colony reflects Holocene climatic and environmental changes in the Ross Sea, Antarctica
By Yuesong Gao, et al. Quaternary Science Reviews, May 15, 2022
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379122001251
[SEPP Comment: The highlights and abstract of the article do not mention the high sea levels inferred by Richard, apparently it is implied in the text. Highly question the sea level estimates.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Barents Sea good news: researcher reveals polar bears, even females, still in excellent condition
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, May 23, 2022
“It turned out, this wasn’t an ‘early melt’ but pack ice moving in response to wind, as it often does. A bucket-load of angst, all for nothing. Oddly enough, the polar bears figured out a way to not just survive but thrive! Who would have thought?”
Leading German Scientists: Record Low February 2022 Antarctic Sea Ice Statistically Has “No Particular Relevance”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 24, 2022
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
ACSH Podcast: Ukraine War Exposes Anti-GMO Folly; Giant Spiders And The Value Of Pesticides
By Cameron English and Josh Bloom, ACSH, May 24, 2022
https://www.acsh.org/news/2022/05/24/acsh-podcast-ukraine-war-exposes-anti-gmo-folly-giant-spiders-and-value-pesticides-16326
[SEPP Comment: The EU may be relaxing anti-GMO regulations.]
Lowering Standards
Are Mid-20C Temperatures In May Unusual
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 21, 2022
“What an utterly absurd question!”
[SEPP Comment: The Met Office has the data to answer the question but does not use it. Homewood does!]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Biased Reporting Overheats Climate Fear, Ignores Cold
By Vijay Jayaraj, Cornwall Alliance, May 27, 2022 [H/t ICECAP]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Record-breaking heat wave hits Northeast US
By Caroline Vakil, The Hill, May 21, 2022
[SEPP Comment: No reports of the record-breaking cold wave in the Northwest?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Bank of England used false data and discredited scenarios to exaggerate climate costs
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, May 26, 2022
Australia Becoming Unliveable–BBC
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 23, 2022
[SEPP Comment: According to an 1868 Sydney Newspaper, the climate altered between periods of drought and flood.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Climate Change At Bottom Of List Of Worries For German Households, Comprehensive 8-Year Survey Shows
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 21, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Color It Red!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 27, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
The Elites Have Every Intention Of Controlling Our Lives
I & I Editorial Board, May 26, 2022
“It’s inevitable that the elites-governmental industrial complex will use technology to control the growing number of smart devices in our lives. Politicians and regulators have already determined how much water can be used to flush toilets and flow through our shower heads; set limits on electricity and water use in dishwashers; made gasoline cans more expensive and difficult to use; and ruined automobile design. It will be their pleasure to continue to increase their authority over our lives.”
G-7 countries agree to ‘eventual’ coal power phaseout
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 27, 2022
“The environment ministers of the Group of Seven (G-7) said in a joint statement on Friday that they would agree to an ‘eventual’ phaseout of ‘unabated’ coal power.
“‘Unabated’ refers to methods of electricity generation that don’t use technology to capture their climate-warming emissions.”
“The G-7 is made up of the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom.
“Japan is expected to be particularly impacted by the commitment, as the country got 32 percent of its electricity from coal in 2019. Coal makes up nearly 22 percent of the U.S. electricity generation.”
Rand Paul: This is the danger of a one-world government
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 26, 2022
Davos ends with Germany pushing global work on climate, war
By Jamey Keaten, AP, May 26, 2022
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-climate-world-economic-forum-zelenskyy-598470fcb3a6c05efad30d590d89f908
ESG’s power grows as banker is canceled for talking sense on climate change
By Rupert Darwall, New York Post, May 24, 2022
https://nypost.com/2022/05/24/hsbc-banker-stuart-kirk-suspended-for-climate-change-remarks/
“A senior HSBC banker, Stuart Kirk, told the world that climate change, though real, is not something financial markets need worry about. ‘Unsubstantiated, shrill, apocalyptic warnings are ALWAYS wrong,’ one of Kirk’s presentation slides read.”
Questioning European Green
Irina Slav: “From arrogance to insanity: the EU path”
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, May 26, 2022
More on ‘Greenwashing’: The Alarmists’ Policy Alarm
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, May 25, 2022
Waking up to woke science
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 25, 2022
You musk be joking
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 25, 2022
“ESG or “Environmental, social, and corporate governance” is, to put the matter bluntly, a device for bullying companies into putting other peoples’ money into left-wing causes. And in another sign of hope, they seem to be getting tired of the racket. Including the always colorful Elon Musk who called ESG “a scam” after S&P Global’ s ESG index dropped his Tesla electric vehicle giant from its list while including ExxonMobil.”
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 24, 2022
Exposed By Putin, The Energy Know-Nothings Must Now Go Away
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, May 22, 2022
https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2022/05/22/exposed-by-putin-the-energy-know-nothings-must-now-go-away/?sh=13114001135b
Stop New York’s climate madness before it drives electric rates into orbit
By Post Editorial Board, New York Post, May 22, 2022
https://nypost.com/2022/05/22/stop-new-yorks-climate-madness-before-it-drives-electric-rates-into-orbit/
Lots of practice
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 25, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Cannot find enough area in the forests to plant two billion trees?]
Litigation Issues
Kentucky AG legal opinion: ESG investing is a breach of an asset manager’s fiduciary duty
By Steve Milloy, JunkScience.com, May 26, 2022
https://junkscience.com/2022/05/kentucky-ag-legal-opinion-esg-investing-is-a-breach-of-an-asset-managers-fiduciary-duty/
Joe Biden Fails His Trial Lawyer Test at the Supreme Court
By O.H. Skinner, Real Clear Energy, May 25, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/05/25/joe_biden_fails_his_trial_lawyer_test_at_the_supreme_court_834042.html
[SEPP Comment: One segment of the economy benefiting from the administration’s policies?]
Massachusetts high court allows AG’s Exxon lawsuit to proceed
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, May 25, 2022
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Rishi Sunak plans raid on electricity and wind farm profits within a month
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 27, 2022
“[Chancellor of the Exchequer] Rishi Sunak yesterday abandoned months of opposition to a windfall tax by announcing a new 25 per cent levy on the ‘extraordinary profits’ that oil and gas companies are making after prices surged, partly driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
[SEPP Comment: We cannot allow high profits to attract more investment!]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
No Windfall Tax On Renewable Energy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 26, 2022
“But [the household subsidy] the package is being partially funded by a levy on North Sea Oil & Gas producers:”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA proposes protections for Alaska salmon fishery, in blow to proposed mine
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 25, 2022
Energy Issues – Non-US
The Arctic: Focus of Future Fuel Fights
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, May 24, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/05/24/the_arctic_focus_of_future_fuel_fights_833836.html
So, is Canadian oil bad or not?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 25, 2022
The great renewables ripoff
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, Via Net Zero Watch, May 27, 2022
“At the start of April, the annual uplift to CfD prices kicked in, and a princely 7% or so was handed out across the board. The price increase has two components. The first is an indexation adjustment, which is another ripoff of consumers because only a very small percentage of a windfarm’s costs are subject to inflation. The second is an adjustment for increased grid charges. Since the increase is mostly down to the ever-expanding presence of windfarms on the grid, this is essentially a transfer of costs from guilty to the innocent. Another rip-off in other words.”
[SEPP Comment: When prices are low, the consumer pays, when prices are high the consumer pays!]
Spot The Gas Well!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 27, 2022
Energy Issues – Australia
Australia Has Finally Caught the ‘Net Zero’ Bus
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, May 22, 2022
Energy Crisis picks up speed Downunder: Now a major Gas retailer goes under
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 25, 2022
Energy Issues — US
‘All of the Above’ Energy Policy Would Help Reduce Energy Poverty Here and Abroad
By Derrick Hollie & Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, May 26, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/05/26/all_of_the_above_energy_policy_would_help_reduce_energy_poverty_here_and_abroad_834374.html
How America’s Greatest Energy Mistake Gambles with Pennsylvania’s Economy
By Mike Butler, Real Clear Energy, May 26, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/05/26/how_americas_greatest_energy_mistake_gambles_with_pennsylvanias_economy_834436.html
Why the Coast Guard is warning boaters about using a recently authorized fuel
By Devin Williams and Nextar Media, The Hill, May 24, 2022
“E15 is federally prohibited for recreational vessel use, according to the Coast Guard. It also can cause marine engine damage and void marine engine warranty.
“Additionally, the fuel has reportedly been shown to make engines run hotter and increase the possibility of a boat fire. The Coast Guard says that signs or warning labels might not be obvious at gas stations.”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Hit $9 For The First Time Since 2008
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, May 25, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Natural-Gas-Prices-Hit-9-For-The-First-Time-Since-2008.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Windfall profits for offshore wind
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, May 24, 2022
“The net effect is that the windfarm is sitting very pretty indeed. While its output was down around a third (!), its average selling price tripled, from £30 to £99/MWh(!), so its sales income doubled to £34 million. Of course, the surge in market prices only really applied to the final four months of the year, so those figures suggest that the windfarm is currently making over £200/MWh. Which is good going against the £30 they averaged in 2020.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Clean Fuels Are Essential to Addressing Today’s Energy Crises
By Byron Dorgan, Real Clear Energy, May 25, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/05/25/clean_fuels_are_essential_to_addressing_todays_energy_crises_833834.html
[SEPP Comment: What makes biofuels cleaner than oil? North America can be energy independent without them.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Batteries Can Store 10 Minutes Of Electricity Needs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 24, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Continued Use Of Combustion Vehicles Leads To ‘Much Lower’ Lifetime CO2 Emissions Than Driving EVs
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 23, 2022
Link to paper: Cumulative Emissions of CO2 for Electric and Combustion Cars: A Case Study on Specific Models
By Maciej Neugebauer, et al. Energies, Apr 6, 2022
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/7/2703/htm
From the abstract: “This work includes calculations of the cumulative CO2 emissions of two comparable cars—the VW Golf VII—one with a combustion engine and the other with an electric motor. Calculation of CO2 emissions was performed, taking into account the stages of production, utilization and use of the above-mentioned vehicles. For the use phase, it was assumed that the total mileage of the car will be 150,000 km over 10 years. For the electric vehicle, calculations were made assuming five different sources of electricity (from coal only, from natural gas only, from PV and wind turbines, an average mix of European power sources and an average mix of Polish power sources;”
Health, Energy, and Climate
A WHO pandemic pact would leave the world at China’s mercy
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, May 14, 2022
https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/a-who-pandemic-pact-would-leave-us-at-china-s-mercy/
German Researchers Find Fine Particle Emissions From Barbecues May Endanger Public Health
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 25, 2022
“According to researchers in Leipzig, measurements were taken by instruments carried around in backpacks in the cities of Leipzig and Dresden (Germany). At times, the pollution levels from barbecues were even worse than the pollution from busy street traffic, the researchers found.”
[SEPP Comment: The mathematical absurdities of the Linear No Threshold model are unleashed on barbecues.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
A Chink In The Armor Of The Progressive Administrative State
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, May 23, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-5-23-a-new-chink-in-the-armor-of-the-progressive-administrative-state
“Over time many of these agencies got judicial (or maybe it’s “quasi-judicial”) responsibilities as well, via Administrative Law Judges that are not part of the federal court system. And the phenomenon of combining rule-making authority, prosecutory authority and administrative law judges in the same agency also has exploded in the departments under direct presidential control, a notably dangerous example being the EPA.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Greens against greening is something to sneeze at
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 25, 2022
ARTICLES
America’s Summer of Rolling Blackouts
Green energy policies are making the nation’s electric-power grid increasingly unstable.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, May 27, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-summer-of-rolling-blackouts-green-energy-grid-north-american-electric-reliability-corporation-11653683348?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“Summer is around the corner, and we suggest you prepare by buying an emergency generator, if you can find one in stock. Last week the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) warned that two-thirds of the U.S. could experience blackouts this summer. Welcome to the ‘green energy transition. ‘
“We’ve been warning for years that climate policies would make the grid more vulnerable to vacillations in supply and demand. And here we are. Some of the mainstream press are belatedly catching on that blackouts are coming, but they still don’t grasp the real problem: The forced transition to green energy is distorting energy markets and destabilizing the grid.”
After discussing specific examples that drought is hurting hydropower, the editorial continues:
“But the U.S. has experienced bad droughts in the past. The problem now is the loss of baseload generators that can provide reliable power 24/7. Solar and wind are rapidly increasing, but they’re as erratic as the weather and can’t be commanded to ramp up when electricity demand surges.
“One problem is that subsidies enable wind and solar generators to turn a profit even when the supply of electricity exceeds demand. Coal and nuclear plants, on the other hand, can’t make money running only some of the time, so many have shut down. Natural-gas-fired plants can help pick up the slack, but there aren’t enough of them to back up all of the renewables coming onto the grid. [Boldface added]
“California last August scrambled to install five emergency gas-fired generators to avert blackouts, but its grid overseer recently warned of power outages this summer. The Golden State in past summers has relied on power imports from neighboring states. But coal plants across the West have been shutting down as renewables grow.
“The risk is greater if there are wildfires, which could disrupt transmission lines. Progressives say building more transmission lines to bring renewable power from rural areas to cities and suburbs will make the grid more resilient. But this may create new vulnerabilities. A tornado this winter damaged a transmission line in the Midwest and raised the risk of power outages this summer as repairs continue.
“Manufacturers in the Midwest have relied on cheap and reliable power, but that may be a thing of the past. NERC says the Midwest this summer is at very high risk of power outages, especially if there’s little wind. That’s because 3,200 MW in net generation capacity—mostly coal and nuclear—have shut down since last summer. That’s enough to power about 2.4 million homes.
“The threat to the Midwest grid will increase in coming years as more coal and nuclear plants shut down. Electricity supplier Vistra has announced it will retire 6,800 MW of coal power by 2027, blaming an ‘irreparably dysfunctional ‘ market and the state renewable subsidies. The former is partly a result of the latter.
“‘We don’t have the opportunity to just shut down a facility for four hours or six hours or eight hours a lot of time, ‘ Illinois Manufacturers’ Association CEO Mark Denzler recently told the Center Square newsletter. ‘If you’re making certain products, take a food product for example, you can’t just shut down and have that food remain on the line. ‘
“Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said recently he didn’t expect power outages since the state could buy power from neighbors. He’d better read the NERC report. Most Democrats don’t seem to recognize or care that their climate policies are making the grid less resilient and reliable. Instead they’re doubling down.
“Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Richard Glick last week brushed aside NERC’s warnings: ‘I think the argument about going back to the way it used to be 30 years ago—that’s not going to happen, ‘ he said. ‘We’re moving forward ‘ with the green energy transition. Believe it or not, FERC is the agency in charge of ensuring the grid is reliable.
“President Biden has renominated Mr. Glick for a second five-year term, and he’s counting on the FERC chairman to midwife his climate agenda. This winter he and the two other Democratic Commissioners imposed regulation requiring an analysis of greenhouse-gas emissions for gas pipelines even as Russia troops amassed at Ukraine’s border.
Mr. Glick shelved the policy after sharp criticism from West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, but he’s “likely to revive it once reconfirmed. His renomination is a clear and present danger to the U.S. electricity supply. The war in Ukraine and surging energy prices haven’t deterred Democrats from their anti-fossil fuels campaign. Will widespread power outages?”
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